Combining exploratory scenarios and participatory backcasting: using an agent-based model in participatory policy design for a multi-functional landscape
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While the merits of local participatory policy design are widely recognised, limited use is made of model-based scenario results to inform such stakeholder involvement. In this paper we present the findings of a study using an agent based model to help stakeholders consider, discuss and incorporate spatial and temporal processes in a backcasting exercise for rural development. The study is carried out in the Dutch region called the Achterhoek. Region-specific scenarios were constructed based on interviews with local experts. The scenarios are simulated in an agent based model incorporating rural residents and farmer characteristics, the environment and different policy interventions for realistic projection of landscape evolution. Results of the model simulations were presented to stakeholders representing different rural sectors at a workshop. The results indicate that illustration of the spatial configuration of landscape changes is appreciated by stakeholders. Testing stakeholders' solutions by way of model simulations revealed that the effectiveness of local interventions is strongly related to exogenous processes such as market competition and endogenous processes like local willingness to engage in multifunctional activities. The integration of multi-agent modelling and participatory backcasting is effective as it offers a possibility to initiate discussion between experts and stakeholders bringing together different expertise.
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Scientific research in agroecology has focused on systems of increasing scale and size, from simple cropping techniques to cropping systems, innovative farms, alternative food systems, and multifunctional landscapes.
“Over the last few decades, scientific research in agroecology has focused on systems of increasing scale and size, from simple cropping techniques (e.g. pruning and organic fertilisation) to more complex objects such as cropping systems (Debaeke etal. 2009), innovative farms (Bos and Grin 2012; Cerf etal. 2012; Dogliotti etal. 2014), alternative food systems (Wezel etal. 2009), and multifunctional”
From Designing agroecological systems across scales: a new analytical framework (2022) · cites this paper as Van Berkel and Verburg 2012
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- Authors
- Van Berkel, D. B., & Verburg, P. H.
- Affiliations
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
- ORCID
- Verburg, Peter H.
- Venue
- Landscape Ecology
- Published
- 2012-03-20
- Volume
- 27
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 641-658
- ISSN
- 0921-2973 (ISSN-L)
- 1572-9761
- PMC
- PMC4426888
- OpenAlex
- W2170607689
- Cited by
- 96
- References
- 56
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 12 · 2014: 5 · 2013: 9 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 7.45
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Landscape Ecology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- VU Research Portal (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- European Commission
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Complex Systems and Decision Making
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Multi-Agent Systems and Negotiation
- Keywords
- participatory policy design, agent-based modeling, multifunctional landscapes, rural development, scenario planning, stakeholder engagement, landscape evolution, Achterhoek, farmer characteristics, market competition
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