Shape constrained additive models
Open accessAbstract
A framework is presented for generalized additive modelling under shape constraints on the component functions of the linear predictor of the GAM. We represent shape constrained model components by mildly non-linear extensions of P-splines. Models can contain multiple shape constrained and unconstrained terms as well as shape constrained multi-dimensional smooths. The constraints considered are on the sign of the first or/and the second derivatives of the smooth terms. A key advantage of the approach is that it facilitates efficient estimation of smoothing parameters as an integral part of model estimation, via GCV or AIC, and numerically robust algorithms for this are presented. We also derive simulation free approximate Bayesian confidence intervals for the smooth components, which are shown to achieve close to nominal coverage probabilities. Applications are presented using real data examples including the risk of disease in relation to proximity to municipal incinerators and the association between air pollution and health.
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- Authors
- Pya, N., & Wood, S. N.
- Affiliations
- University of Bath (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Pya, Natalya
- ORCID
- Wood, Simon N.
- Venue
- Statistics and Computing
- Published
- 2014-02-25
- Volume
- 25
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 543-559
- ISSN
- 0960-3174 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-1375
- OpenAlex
- W2059940278
- Cited by
- 315
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 53 · 2025: 31 · 2024: 40 · 2023: 24 · 2022: 31 · 2021: 38 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 17 · 2018: 26 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 3
- FWCI
- 9.51
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Statistics and Computing (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Explore Bristol Research (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Bristol Research (University of Bristol) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- KTH Publication Database DiVA (KTH Royal Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Department of Health, Northern Ireland
- Health and Safety Executive
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/I000917/1, EP/1000917/1, EP/K005251/1)
- Natural Environment Research Council (EP/1000917/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Inference
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Applications
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Statistical Methods and Models
- Keywords
- generalized additive models, P-splines, convexity constraints, smoothing parameter estimation, generalized cross-validation, Akaike information criterion, air pollution and health
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