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Business As Usual Versus Climate-responsive, Optimised Crop Plans – A Predictive Model for Irrigated Agriculture in Australia in 2060
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
Climate change is impacting people’s lives, with management of water resources and food security being major concerns for the future of many countries. In this paper, future water availability, crop water needs, yields, market costs and returns of current crops in a case study area in Australia are evaluated under future climatic conditions. The predictive methods on which the work is based have the advantage of being robust—they are able to simultaneously consider many climate change models—giving greater confidence in determining what the future will hold in this regard. The results indicate business as usual, in terms of the quantity and types of crops that can be grown presently, will not be sustainable in the medium and long term future. Instead, modelling indicates that changes in production and land use to maximise revenue per megalitre of water will be needed to adapt to future conditions and deliver climate-smart agriculture.
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Metadata
- Authors
- Lewis, A., Montgomery, J., Lewis, M., Randall, M., & Schiller, K.
- Affiliations
- Griffith University (AU)
- University of Tasmania (AU)
- Bond University (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Lewis, Andrew
- Venue
- Water Resources Management
- Published
- 2023-02-28
- Volume
- 37
- Issue
- 6-7
- Pages
- 2721-2735
- ISSN
- 0920-4741 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-1650
- OpenAlex
- W4322626813
- Cited by
- 9
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 1
- FWCI
- 2.28
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Water Resources Management (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Research Square (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- Bond University Research Portal (Bond University) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Principles for Responsible Management Education (Grant number)
- Griffith University
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Water Science and Technology › Water resources management and optimization
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Soil Science › Irrigation Practices and Water Management
- Keywords
- climate change adaptation, irrigated agriculture, crop planning, crop water requirements, crop yield, climate-smart agriculture, business as usual, land use change, climate change projections, Australia
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- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Business As Usual Versus Climate-responsive, Optimised Crop Plans – A Predictive Model for Irrigated Agriculture in Australia in 2060. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1007/s11269-023-03472-6
- The paper
- Lewis, A., Montgomery, J., Lewis, M., Randall, M., & Schiller, K. (2023). Business As Usual Versus Climate-responsive, Optimised Crop Plans – A Predictive Model for Irrigated Agriculture in Australia in 2060. Water Resources Management. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-023-03472-6
