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Cited by 943Fish Ecology and Management StudiesAquatic Ecosystems and BiodiversityFreshwater macroinvertebrate diversity and ecology

Scientists’ warning to humanity on the freshwater biodiversity crisis

Open access
Albert, James S., Destouni, Georgia, Duke-Sylvester, Scott M., Magurran, Anne E., Oberdorff, Thierry, Reis, Roberto E., Winemiller, Kirk O., Ripple, William J.·2021·Ambio
DOI 10.1007/s13280-020-01318-8PMC PMC7708569
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Abstract

Freshwater ecosystems provide irreplaceable services for both nature and society. The quality and quantity of freshwater affect biogeochemical processes and ecological dynamics that determine biodiversity, ecosystem productivity, and human health and welfare at local, regional and global scales. Freshwater ecosystems and their associated riparian habitats are amongst the most biologically diverse on Earth, and have inestimable economic, health, cultural, scientific and educational values. Yet human impacts to lakes, rivers, streams, wetlands and groundwater are dramatically reducing biodiversity and robbing critical natural resources and services from current and future generations. Freshwater biodiversity is declining rapidly on every continent and in every major river basin on Earth, and this degradation is occurring more rapidly than in terrestrial ecosystems. Currently, about one third of all global freshwater discharges pass through human agricultural, industrial or urban infrastructure. About one fifth of the Earth's arable land is now already equipped for irrigation, including all the most productive lands, and this proportion is projected to surpass one third by midcentury to feed the rapidly expanding populations of humans and commensal species, especially poultry and ruminant livestock. Less than one fifth of the world's preindustrial freshwater wetlands remain, and this proportion is projected to decline to under one tenth by midcentury, with imminent threats from water transfer megaprojects in Brazil and India, and coastal wetland drainage megaprojects in China. The Living Planet Index for freshwater vertebrate populations has declined to just one third that of 1970, and is projected to sink below one fifth by midcentury. A linear model of global economic expansion yields the chilling prediction that human utilization of critical freshwater resources will approach one half of the Earth's total capacity by midcentury. Although the magnitude and growth of the human freshwater footprint are greater than is generally understood by policy makers, the news media, or the general public, slowing and reversing dramatic losses of freshwater species and ecosystems is still possible. We recommend a set of urgent policy actions that promote clean water, conserve watershed services, and restore freshwater ecosystems and their vital services. Effective management of freshwater resources and ecosystems must be ranked amongst humanity's highest priorities.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1007/s13280-020-01318-8

Cites

92 of 92 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

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  • Findingnone given

    Across all continents and all large river basins, freshwater biodiversity is falling quickly.

    “Freshwater biodiversity is declining rapidly on every continent and in every major river basin on Earth, and this degradation is occurring more rapidly than in terrestrial ecosystems.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    The speed of decline for both freshwater and land groups tracks closely with how much wetland has been lost.

    “Rates in the decline of both freshwater and terrestrial groups are also closely associated with extent of wetland loss (Fig. 1b).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingnone given

    A linear model of worldwide economic growth forecasts that people will use close to half of Earth's total freshwater capacity by 2050.

    “A linear model of global economic expansion yields the chilling prediction that human utilization of critical freshwater resources will approach one half of the Earth's total capacity by midcentury.”
    • Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
      “Such a linear model of global economic expansion yields the chilling prediction that human utilization of critical freshwater resources will approach and even exceed 50% of the Earth's natural supply by midcentury.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: If current practices continue, the past straight-line growth in human use of freshwater and land resources will persist.
  • Findingown data

    Global freshwater withdrawals and irrigated land area are increasing more quickly than human appropriation of terrestrial ecological productivity.

    “Measures of global freshwater withdrawals and total land area equipped for irrigation are rising faster than the human use of terrestrial ecological productivity (Fig. 1a).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingcitation

    Loss and degradation in fresh waters are proceeding faster than comparable changes on land.

    “Freshwater biodiversity is declining rapidly on every continent and in every major river basin on Earth, and this degradation is occurring more rapidly than in terrestrial ecosystems.”
    • Also stated in: § Abstract · boosted
      “Analysis of historical trends globally provided here shows that freshwaters are being depleted, and ecosystems degraded, even more rapidly than their terrestrial counterparts (Fig. 1; Table 1).”
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    • cites Turak et al. 2017 source

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  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 1

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    Findingnone given

    Among endangered freshwater vertebrates, fishes face greater threats than tetrapods, and Eurasian species face greater threats than non-Eurasian species.

    “The species illustrated roughly represent the proportions of endangered freshwater vertebrates, with greater threats to fishes (a-c) than to tetrapods (c-f), and to Eurasian (a-c, f) than non-Eurasian (d-e) species”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

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    Premisecitation

    Planned near-future water-diversion megaprojects would move over 1900 km3 annually, adding roughly 5% to global surface freshwater flow.

    “The total volume of water planned for near-future diversion megaprojects is projected to exceed 1900 km 3 per year, representing an additional * 5% of total global surface freshwater flow (Shumilova et al. 2018).”
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    Roughly 20% of the planet's cultivable land has irrigation infrastructure, and that share is expected to exceed 33% by 2050.

    “About one fifth of the Earth's arable land is now already equipped for irrigation, including all the most productive lands, and this proportion is projected to surpass one third by midcentury to feed the rapidly expanding populations of humans and commensal species, especially poultry and ruminant livestock.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Scanlon et al. 2007; Ellis et al. 2010; Siebert et al. 2015

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    Premisecitation

    The most urgent near-term dangers are large projects to move water between basins in Brazil and India and to drain coastal wetlands in China.

    “The largest imminent threats come from megaprojects designed to transfer water among river basins in Brazil and India (Shumilova et al. 2018), and to drain coastal wetlands in China (Cui et al. 2016).”
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    Interpretationreasoning

    Human activities are causing dramatic reductions in freshwater biodiversity and are stripping away key resources and services needed by present and future people.

    “Yet human impacts to lakes, rivers, streams, wetlands and groundwater are dramatically reducing biodiversity and robbing critical natural resources and services from current and future generations.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

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    Interpretationcitation

    Fresh waters face faster-growing threats than land ecosystems because surface liquid freshwater is so scarce and because human economies depend heavily on it.

    “The more rapid increase in threats to freshwater than terrestrial ecosystems arises from the minute total volume of liquid freshwater on the Earth's surface, and from the critical roles that freshwaters serve in human economic systems (Barbier 2017).”
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    Premisecitation

    Ruminant livestock, roughly 4 billion animals worldwide, account for 14.5% of human greenhouse gas emissions, largely via methane from enteric fermentation.

    “Domestic ruminant livestock (* 4 thousand millions globally) contribute 14.5% of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission, especially through the enteric fermentation by ruminants producing methane (Ripple et al. 2013).”
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    Premisecitation

    The freshwater vertebrate Living Planet Index now stands at about one third of its 1970 level, with a projected drop below one fifth by 2050.

    “The Living Planet Index for freshwater vertebrate populations has declined to just one third that of 1970, and is projected to sink below one fifth by midcentury.”
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    • cites Loh et al. 2005; WWF 2016

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    Interpretationreasoning

    Reducing ruminant livestock numbers would both improve freshwater conditions and help mitigate climate change.

    “Lowering the number of ruminant livestock would have the co-benefits of improving freshwater conditions and mitigating climate change.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

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    Premisecitation

    Between 1970 and 2012, large freshwater vertebrates fell by 88%, and the largest fishes fell by 94%.

    “megafauna (defined as fishes, amphibians, reptiles and mammals C 30 kg adult body weight) declined by 88%, with mega-fishes undergoing the largest declines (-94%, Carrizo et al. 2017;He et al. 2019).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Carrizo et al. 2017; He et al. 2019

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    Premisecitation

    The Yangtze ranks among the world's most heavily affected large river basins; the Yangtze river dolphin and paddlefish were last seen in the 2000s.

    “The Yangtze basin is among the most impacted of any large river on Earth, with the last citings of two species occurring in the 2000s; i.e., the Yangtze river dolphin Lipotes vexillifer (Turvey et al. 2007), and the Yangtze paddlefish Psephurus gladius (Zhang et al. 2009).”
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    Premisecitation

    Domestic ruminants, poultry, and pigs raised for food now surpass 100 million tons of carbon, and livestock numbers are rising quickly.

    “Global populations of domestic ruminants (cattle, sheep, and goats) (Ripple et al. 2013) poultry, and pigs (Bennett et al. 2018) used to feed the growing human population now exceed 100 million tons of carbon (Bar-On et al. 2018), and livestock populations are growing rapidly.”
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    Premisecitation

    Living humans account for about 60 million metric tons of carbon, over ten times the biomass of all remaining wild mammals.

    “The total biomass of all humans alive today constitutes approximately 60 million metric tons of carbon, which is slightly more than 10 times that of all the remaining wild mammals of the world (Smil 2011).”
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    • cites Smil 2011 source

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    Premisecitation

    Farming degrades freshwater quality and ecological condition, and improvements remain slow and hard even long after regulations require them.

    “Agricultural practices also degrade the quality and ecological status of the freshwater ecosystems, with status improvements remaining slow and difficult long after environmental regulations have been put in place requiring such improvements (Destouni et al. 2017).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Destouni et al. 2017 source

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    Premisecitation

    Globally, farming uses about 70% of freshwater, industry about 20%, and households about 10%.

    “Worldwide, agriculture accounts for about 70% of all freshwater usage, compared to 20% for industry and 10% for domestic uses (FAO 2016).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites FAO 2016

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    Premisecitation

    Water withdrawals and diversions, along with agricultural expansion and intensification, are leading threats to freshwater quantity and quality; fragmentation and flow regulation are leading threats to freshwater biodiversity.

    “Withdrawals and diversions (Jaramillo and Destouni 2015) as well as agricultural expansion and intensification (Destouni et al. 2013) are main threats to freshwater availability and quality (Destouni and Jarsjo ¨2018), while fragmentation and flow regulation (Winemiller et al. 2016) are main threats to freshwater biodiversity by altering rivers, floodplain lakes, wetlands and estuaries.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Jaramillo and Destouni 2015 source

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    • cites Destouni et al. 2013 source

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    Premisecitation

    Harm appears in the global extent of human-modified land, in wetland loss, and in reduced or degraded surface and subsurface flows.

    “Damages are seen in the total area of anthropogenic (urban and agricultural) modified landscapes worldwide, wetlands reduction, and amount of surface and subsurface flows that have been diminished or degraded (Gleeson et al. 2016).”
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    Premisecitation

    By trapping sediment, dams cause deltas to shrink and harm coastal fisheries and tropical mangroves, which in turn affects the carbon storage that lowers greenhouse gas emissions.

    “Sediment retention by dams leads to delta recession (Luo et al. 2017) and degraded coastal fisheries and tropical mangrove forests, indirectly affecting carbon storage that reduces greenhouse gas emissions in the latter case (Atwood et al. 2017).”
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    Premisecitation

    Changes in river flow seasonality have reduced fish diversity, inland fishery yields, bird population stability, and riparian forest productivity.

    “Altered flow seasonality in rivers has led to less diverse fish assemblages, decreased inland fisheries production, less stable bird populations and lower riparian forest production (Jardine et al. 2015;Kingsford et al. 2017;Sabo et al. 2017).”
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    Premisecitation

    Pressure on the world's fresh waters keeps rising, as food production is targeted to increase by 50-70% by 2050.

    “Demands on global freshwaters continue to grow rapidly, with efforts to expand global food production by 50-70% before 2050 (Molden 2007;FAO 2011).”
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    • cites FAO 2011

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    Premisecitation

    World population is expected to reach 9.6-12.3 billion by 2100, with human appropriation of terrestrial net primary productivity rising to 40-60%.

    “The global human population is projected to reach 9.6-12.3thousand millions people by the year 2100, and the human appropriation of (terrestrial) net primary productivity (HANPP) to reach 40-60% (Krausmann et al. 2013).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
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    Premisecitation

    Growing human populations and economic activity raise pollutant and nutrient loads, worsening water quality and ecosystem condition in many regions and countries.

    “Increased human population and socio-economic activities also increase the pollutant and nutrient loads that deteriorate water quality and ecosystem status across different regions and countries around the world (Destouni and Jarsjo ¨2018; Levi et al. 2018).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Destouni and Jarsjo 2018 source

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    Premisecitation

    Today, water withdrawals and diversions leave about a quarter of global rivers dry before they reach the sea and have depleted large inland waters such as the Aral Sea and Lake Urmia.

    “Water withdrawals and diversions currently cause about one-quarter of the world's rivers to run dry before reaching the ocean, and have drained major inland water bodies like the Aral Sea in Central Asia (Destouni et al. 2013) and Lake Urmia in Iran (Khazaei et al. 2019).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
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    Premisecitation

    Educating girls through primary and secondary schooling, and offering voluntary family-planning instruction to women in developing nations, are among the most effective ways to stabilize human population growth.

    “Among the most effective methods for stabilizing human population growth are to provide primary and secondary education for girls, and voluntary family planning education for women in developing countries (Leigh and Blakely 2017).”
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    Interpretationreasoning

    A linear growth trajectory might continue far into this century even though reaching or exceeding Earth's freshwater capacity would bring clear crises.

    “Therefore, a linear growth model may be able to persist well into this century, despite the obvious crises that would follow as we reach or surpass the Earth's freshwater capacity.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: If current practices continue, the past straight-line growth in human use of freshwater and land resources will persist.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Dams block animal movement between upstream and downstream reaches, help non-native species establish, drive local extinctions and species replacements, and raise waterborne disease risk in reservoirs and heavily modified waters by changing productivity.

    “Dams also prevent upstreamdownstream movement of freshwater animals, facilitate settlement of non-native species, cause local species extirpations and replacements and increase risk of waterborne diseases in reservoirs and highly altered environments by modifying productivity (Fenwick 2006;Poff and Schmidt 2016).”
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    • cites Poff and Schmidt 2016 source

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    Premisecitation

    Energy production alone accounts for roughly 15% of global freshwater withdrawals, and water extraction and treatment make up about 19% of the energy sector's total water use.

    “The volume of water used by the energy sector alone represents about 15% of global freshwater withdrawals, and extracting and processing freshwater represents about 19% of total usage by the energy sector (Fricko et al. 2016).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
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    Premisecitation

    Dams reshape river basins: they create local reservoirs, break up river networks, and alter sediment movement and seasonal patterns of water temperature and flow.

    “Dams transform river basins by creating artificial lakes locally, fragmenting river networks, and greatly distorting natural patterns of sediment transport and seasonal variations in water temperatures and flows (Latrubesse et al. 2017).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Latrubesse et al. 2017 source

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    Premisecitation

    Many human pressures increasingly threaten freshwater species and ecosystems: habitat change, pollution, overfishing, introduced species, river diversions, fragmentation and flow control, farm and city growth, climate change, sea-level rise, and shifting rainfall.

    “Freshwater species and ecosystems are increasingly threatened by many human activities, including habitat alteration, water pollution, overfishing, exotic species introduction, river diversions, fragmentation and flow regulation, expansion of agricultural and urban landscapes, climate change, rising sea levels and altered precipitation regimes (Dudgeon 2019;Grill et al. 2019;IPBES 2019).”
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    • cites IPBES 2019

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    Premisecitation

    Per unit habitat volume, fresh waters are among Earth's most diverse systems: over 140,000 species-about 12% of described species-occupy roughly 2% of land surface and 0.007% of planetary water.

    “Freshwater ecosystems are also among the most diverse per unit habitat volume on Earth, with more than 140 000 species (i.e., fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates; c. 12% of all described species) compressed into just * 2% of the world's surface area, and a minute * 0.007% of the total planetary water supply (Reid et al. 2019).”
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    Premisecitation

    During the 1900s, human numbers quadrupled and the share of biospheric energy people appropriated roughly doubled, from 13% to 25%.

    “In the twentieth century, the human population grew fourfold and human appropriation of energy from the biosphere about doubled from 13 to 25% (Krausmann et al. 2013).”
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    Premisenone given

    The primary threats to these species are human activities, including overharvesting, pollution, invasive species introductions, and habitat alterations such as water diversion, land-use change, and climate change.

    “The main conservation threats to these species come from human activities, including overharvesting, pollution, introducing invasive species, and habitat modifications (e.g., water diversions, land-use changes, climate change).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

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    Premisecitation

    When river corridors are fragmented, aquatic species have smaller populations and less gene flow, raising their extinction risk.

    “The fragmentation of river corridors also reduces population sizes and gene flows of aquatic species, increasing species extinction risks (Cohen et al. 2016a, b;Dias et al. 2017).”
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    • cites Cohen et al. 2016a, b

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33 of 33

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Humanity can still halt and undo the sharp declines in freshwater life and habitats.

    “slowing and reversing dramatic losses of freshwater species and ecosystems is still possible.”
    “Slowing and reversing the dramatic losses of freshwater species and ecosystems is still possible.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    If current practices continue, the past straight-line growth in human use of freshwater and land resources will persist.

    “Therefore, a linear growth model may be able to persist well into this century, despite the obvious crises that would follow as we reach or surpass the Earth's freshwater capacity.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Technologies already exist that can manage and reduce many parts of the freshwater biodiversity crisis.

    “We currently have technologies to manage and ameliorate many aspects of the freshwater biodiversity crisis-what we lack is political will.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Tropical developing countries will see the largest increases in human density and per-capita water use over the next 50 years.

    “These countries expect the greatest increases in human density and per-capita water consumption in the next 50 years.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    A world with reduced freshwater will harm many dimensions of human welfare.

    “A world with diminished freshwaters will impoverish many aspects of human welfare, and we risk further damaging these essential life-support systems at our peril.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Moving agricultural and bioenergy production from high-income to low-income tropical regions would increase threats to species-rich tropical aquatic ecosystems.

    “However, we must not relocate agricultural and bioenergy production from highincome to low-income tropical regions, which will further threaten species-rich tropical aquatic ecosystems.”
6 of 6

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Inland waters cover less than 2 per cent of the Earth's surface but support 12 per cent of known species and more than half of all fish species, with high levels of endemism.

    “Inland waters cover less than 2 per cent of the Earth's surface, but support 12 per cent of known species, 1 and more than half of all fish species, 2 with high levels of endemism.3”

    From Protecting and restoring habitats to benefit freshwater biodiversity (2024) · cites this paper as [3]

    Citation 3 is attached to the claim of high endemism. The paper’s biodiversity passage (section labelled Abstract; page unavailable) reports that freshwater ecosystems contain about 12% of described species in roughly 2% of Earth’s surface area, but the passages found when searching for “endemism” and endemic species do not address levels of endemism. (LLM, conf=0.72)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Current freshwater index exceeds its reported 2012 level

    Major

    An 81% decline by 2012 leaves the index at 19% of its 1970 level. The abstract instead says it is currently at one-third and projects that it will fall below one-fifth only by midcentury.

  • Terrestrial index model is labeled freshwater

    Minor

    The model marked with footnote e is labeled LPI-FW in the table, but footnote e identifies the terrestrial index. The preceding logarithmic row also labels that series LPI-T.

2 of 2

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

8 of the 100 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. Sengupta, S., and W. Cai. 2019. A quarter of humanity faces looming water crises. New York Times. Aug. 6: 2019.
  2. WWF. 2016. Living planet: Report 2016: Risk and resilience in a new era. Gland: World Wide Fund for Nature.

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Authors
Albert, J. S., Destouni, G., Duke-Sylvester, S. M., Magurran, A. E., Oberdorff, T., Reis, R. E., Winemiller, K. O., & Ripple, W. J.
Affiliations
  • University of Louisiana at Lafayette (US)
  • Stockholm University (SE)
  • University of St Andrews (GB)
  • Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
  • Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul (BR)
  • Texas A&M University at Galveston (US)
  • Oregon State University (US)
Corresponding author
Albert, James S.
ORCID
Venue
Ambio
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2020-02-10
Volume
50
Issue
1
Pages
85-94
ISSN
  • 0044-7447 (ISSN-L)
  • 1654-7209
DOI
10.1007/s13280-020-01318-8
PMC
PMC7708569
OpenAlex
W3006601371
Cited by
943
References
100
Citations by year
2026: 149 · 2025: 175 · 2024: 181 · 2023: 149 · 2022: 156 · 2021: 107 · 2020: 24 · 2018: 1 · 2012: 1
FWCI
69.46
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • AMBIO (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • St Andrews Research Repository (St Andrews Research Repository) (acceptedVersion)
  • HAL (submittedVersion)
  • PUCRS Repository (Pontifical Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-sa)
Funders
  • National Science Foundation (0614334, 0741450, 1354511)
  • Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas (2016-02045)
  • H2020 European Research Council (AdG 250189)
  • Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia de Ciência Animal (306455/2014-5)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Aquatic Ecosystems and Biodiversity
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Freshwater macroinvertebrate diversity and ecology
Keywords
freshwater ecosystem degradation, freshwater biodiversity loss, irrigation expansion, Living Planet Index, ecosystem services, ecological restoration, watershed management
MeSH terms
Brazil, China, Conservation of Natural Resources, Fresh Water, Humans, India, Ecosystem, Biodiversity

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