Assessment of Climate Change-Induced Water Scarcity Risk by Using a Coupled System Dynamics and Bayesian Network Modeling Approaches
Open accessAbstract
The water scarcity risk induced by climate change is contributing to a sequence of hydrological and socioeconomic impacts. Certain numbers of related impacts are locked in already and are expected to be much greater in the future. So, there is still a lack of understanding of its dynamics, origin, propagation, and the mutual interaction of its drivers. In recent years, several model-based approaches have been introduced to tackle the complexity, dynamics, and uncertainty of water scarcity specifically. However, the coupled modeling while addressing different aspects of the risk of water scarcity under the climate change scenarios has been rarely done. For bridging this gap, in this research, the combination of complementary System Dynamics modeling and Bayesian Network was applied to Qazvin Plain in Iran with five AOGCM models under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios (126 and 585). Key findings of this research show: 1) Baseline risk assessment indicates a low probability of water scarcity; however, in the future 30-year time horizon with continuous change in hazard, vulnerability, and exposure for SSP126, the risk fell in the extreme category with an average probability of 41%. Under SSP585, the risk varies between extreme and high categories with an average probability of 47%. 2) Economic development, particularly regional gross domestic product (RGDP) in 2045–2054 in SSP585 can diminish the negative projected consequences of climate change and therefore investments in adaptation policies could offset negative consequences, highlighting the role of economic growth in climate resilience. 3) It is projected that crop yield and income will receive the largest negative effects due to cutting back the agriculture area. 4) Considering the interplay of climate change, economic development, and water extraction policies is essential for the design, operation, and management of water-related activities. The proposed integrated methodology provides a comprehensive framework for understanding climate change-induced water scarcity risks, their drivers, and potential consequences. This approach facilitates adaptive decision-making to address the evolving challenges posed by climate change.
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In empirical work, water stress is measured through multiple drought and hydrological frameworks that capture different dimensions of scarcity.
“In empirical work, water stress is not treated as a single uniform variable; it is measured through multiple drought and hydrological frameworks that capture different dimensions of scarcity (Dehghani et al., 2024; Zaheda, 2025a).”
From Climate Security, Water Governance, and Resilience How Climate-Induced Water Stress and Migration Challenge State Capacity (2026) · cites this paper as Dehghani et al., 2024
Section 3.3 (page not provided) uses multiple indicators representing physical, social, economic, institutional, and infrastructural dimensions of water-scarcity risk, so the paper supports the point that scarcity is not measured as a single uniform variable. It does not establish that water stress is measured through multiple drought and hydrological frameworks; its approach is an integrated risk assessment focused on agricultural water scarcity. (LLM, conf=0.84)
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Cardinal Masters in Public Administration, L. U. T., & Zulqarnain, F. (2026) · International Journal of Scientific Interdisciplinary Research · doi:10.63125/28gejw48 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
- Authors
- Dehghani, S., Massah Bavani, A., Roozbahani, A., & Sahin, O.
- Affiliations
- University of Tehran (IR)
- Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NO)
- Griffith University (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Roozbahani, Abbas
- Venue
- Water Resources Management
- Published
- 2024-04-10
- Volume
- 38
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 3853-3874
- ISSN
- 0920-4741 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-1650
- OpenAlex
- W4394693412
- Cited by
- 23
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 3
- FWCI
- 3.98
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Water Resources Management (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Griffith Research Online (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Norwegian University of Life Sciences
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Ocean Engineering › Water resources management and optimization
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Water Science and Technology › Environmental Science and Water Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Water Science and Technology › Water Resources and Sustainability
- Keywords
- climate change, water scarcity risk, Qazvin plain, system dynamics, Bayesian networks, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, regional gross domestic product, climate resilience, crop yield, climate change adaptation
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