Climate Security, Water Governance, and Resilience How Climate-Induced Water Stress and Migration Challenge State Capacity

Out-migration may shrink the tax base of origin regions via workforce loss and economic decline, which further undermines local administrative capacity.

“In addition, migration can reduce the fiscal base of sending regions through labor loss and economic contraction, further weakening local administrative capacity (Beitelmal et al., 2024).”

• cites Beitelmal et al., 2024 sourceCould not verify

  The Introduction discusses economic losses from disrupted transportation infrastructure, not losses caused by people leaving a region. Searches for migration, tax base, workforce loss, and administrative capacity found no passage linking out-migration to a sending region’s finances or administrative capacity. Page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.72)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

The literature supports an empirical approach that measures how environmental hazards translate into governance strain across different structural contexts.

“By situating climate security within an institutional throughput framework, the literature supports an empirical approach that measures how environmental hazards translate into governance strain across different structural contexts (Nguyen et al., 2023; Tasnim, 2025; Zaheda, 2025b).”

• cites Nguyen et al., 2023 sourcePartly supported

  The Figure 1 discussion (p. 2) links climate-related security risks to limited institutional support, fragility, and political unrest. The “Conflicts and crimes” section (p. 4) also says disasters can temporarily reduce the state’s ability to exercise control. These passages support a connection between environmental hazards and governance strain, but the paper does not propose an empirical approach to measuring that connection across different structural contexts. (LLM, conf=0.78)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
• cites Tasnim, 2025Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Zaheda, 2025bNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Water stress must be interpreted in relation to demand, because scarcity is shaped by reduced supply and by rising withdrawals from agriculture, industry, and urban growth.

“The literature also emphasizes that water stress must be interpreted in relation to demand, because scarcity is shaped not only by reduced supply but also by rising withdrawals from agriculture, industry, and urban growth (Ashraf et al., 2021).”

• cites Ashraf et al., 2021 sourcePartly supported

  The Results and discussion sections on on-farm adaptation and empirical modeling link declining rainfall and increased agricultural groundwater extraction to water scarcity in Balochistan; they also mention population growth as a non-climatic factor. Our copy does not establish rising industrial or urban water withdrawals, or explicitly frame water stress as a measure relative to demand. The claim therefore extends beyond what this source supports. (LLM, conf=0.87)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

In low-capacity states, the administrative load created by these demands can overwhelm bureaucratic systems, reducing the effectiveness of policy implementation.

“In low-capacity states, the administrative load created by these demands can overwhelm bureaucratic systems, reducing the effectiveness of policy implementation (Zisopoulou & Panagoulia, 2021).”

• cites Zisopoulou & Panagoulia, 2021 sourceCould not verify

  Section 4.7 discusses weak enforcement of international water-scarcity agreements, while Section 4.6 discusses difficulties in long-term planning under climate uncertainty. Neither addresses administrative demands overwhelming bureaucracies in low-capacity states or reducing policy implementation effectiveness. Searches for administrative burden, bureaucratic capacity, and weak institutional capacity found no passage on that claim. (LLM, conf=0.74)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

In chronically arid regions, societies and institutions often develop coping mechanisms such as storage infrastructure, drought-resistant cropping systems, and established rationing regimes.

“In chronically arid regions, societies and institutions often develop coping mechanisms such as storage infrastructure, drought-resistant cropping systems, and established rationing regimes (Amnuaylojaroen & Parasin, 2024).”

• cites Amnuaylojaroen & Parasin, 2024 sourcePartly supported

  Section 3.3 (page unavailable) identifies drought-resistant crop varieties as an adaptation strategy, supporting the cropping-system example. The passages do not establish that these mechanisms are commonly developed in chronically arid regions, or describe storage infrastructure or established rationing regimes. (LLM, conf=0.86)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

The accumulated evidence establishes climate security as an empirically grounded field concerned with measurable changes in political order, governance performance, and economic stability under environmental stress.

“The cumulative evidence from these diverse outcome families establishes climate security as an empirically grounded domain concerned with measurable changes in political order, governance performance, and economic stability under environmental stress (Murshed, 2020; Rifat, 2025; Sazzadul, 2025).”

• cites Murshed, 2020 sourceCould not verify

  The Conclusion reports findings about ICT-trade openness, energy security, and environmental sustainability in South Asia. The Results and discussion examines economic growth in relation to CO2 emissions, but neither passage addresses climate security as a field or measures changes in political order, governance performance, or economic stability under environmental stress. Searches for those terms found no supporting passage in our copy; page numbers were unavailable. (LLM, conf=0.74)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
• cites Rifat, 2025Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Sazzadul, 2025Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Groundwater depletion is increasingly treated as a chronic form of water stress, especially where irrigation and urban extraction exceed recharge capacity.

“Groundwater depletion is increasingly treated as a chronic form of water stress, particularly in regions where irrigation demand and urban extraction exceed recharge capacity (Almulhim et al., 2024).”

• cites Almulhim et al., 2024 sourcePartly supported

  The Introduction defines water stress as demand exceeding available water, and the Conclusion describes prolonged water scarcity as a gradual stressor. Neither passage identifies groundwater depletion as a chronic form of water stress or discusses irrigation and urban extraction exceeding recharge capacity; searches for groundwater, recharge, and overextraction found no such passage. (LLM, conf=0.76)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Water stress increases governance complexity because allocation under scarcity requires monitoring, enforcement, and dispute-resolution capacity.

“Water stress also increases the complexity of governance because allocation decisions must be made under scarcity, requiring monitoring systems, enforcement mechanisms, and dispute-resolution capacity (Cianconi et al., 2021).”

• cites Cianconi et al., 2021 sourcePartly supported

  Section 5 (page unavailable) links diminishing resources to judicial disputes over access, and Section 6 (page unavailable) calls for monitoring adaptation plans. The paper does not specifically say that water stress makes allocation governance more complex or requires allocation-monitoring systems and enforcement mechanisms. (LLM, conf=0.78)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

International databases on displacement, population movement, and urbanization increasingly allow migration to be measured, so researchers can statistically analyze climate-related mobility.

“Migration is also increasingly measurable through international databases on displacement, population movements, and urbanization patterns, enabling statistical analysis of how climatic stressors influence mobility (Cacciotti et al., 2021).”

• cites Cacciotti et al., 2021 sourceCould not verify

  Section 3.2 describes a GIS tool for mapping climate hazards and risks to cultural heritage in Central Europe, not databases measuring human migration. Searches for displacement and population movements, and for migration, mobility, and statistical analysis of climatic stressors, found no passage addressing the attributed claim. The available section labels do not provide page numbers. (LLM, conf=0.76)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Studies across political science, economics, and environmental policy show that institutional quality mediates the relationship between climatic hazards and social outcomes.

“Studies across political science, economics, and environmental policy demonstrate that institutional quality mediates the relationship between climatic hazards and social outcomes (Ngcamu, 2023).”

• cites Ngcamu, 2023 sourcePartly supported

  Section 4.2 links governments’ failure to implement disaster-risk frameworks with greater vulnerability to climate-induced disasters among persons with disabilities. That supports the narrower idea that governance affects hazard outcomes, but the paper does not establish institutional quality as a mediator across social outcomes or document the claimed breadth of studies across political science, economics, and environmental policy. No page number is available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.82)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Migration and displacement under climate-induced water stress represent a core empirical domain within climate security and governance research because population movement links environmental pressures to measurable institutional strain.

“Migration and displacement under climate-induced water stress represent a core empirical domain within climate security and governance research because population movement links environmental pressures to measurable institutional strain (Bertassello et al., 2023).”

• cites Bertassello et al., 2023 sourcePartly supported

  The Introduction describes conflict-driven refugee migration into already water-stressed countries and identifies overburdened local infrastructure as a possible water-security consequence. The paper measures effects on host-country water stress, not institutional strain, and does not establish that the migration was induced by climate-related water stress or that it is a core domain of climate-security research. No page numbers are provided in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.87)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Migration is not an automatic response to water stress but a conditional outcome shaped by asset constraints, labor demand, land tenure, gendered mobility norms, and availability of public services in origin and destination locations.

“Across this scholarship, migration is not treated as an automatic response to water stress but as a conditional outcome shaped by asset constraints, labor demand, land tenure, gendered mobility norms, and the availability of public services in origin and destination locations (Almulhim et al., 2024).”

• cites Almulhim et al., 2024 sourcePartly supported

  The Conclusion (page unavailable) says climate stressors often affect migration through indirect pathways shaped by institutional and socioeconomic factors. The Introduction links water-stress migration to insufficient resources, describes gender as influencing migration decisions, and gives examples involving farmland size and employment opportunities. It does not establish labor demand, land tenure, gendered mobility norms, or public services in both origin and destination locations as the specific conditions listed in the claim. (LLM, conf=0.86)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Redundancy becomes valuable during crisis because backup systems reduce the risk of complete failure when one component collapses.

“Redundancy, often viewed as inefficient in stable times, becomes valuable during crisis because backup systems reduce the risk of complete failure when one component collapses (Cevik & Jalles, 2022).”

• cites Cevik & Jalles, 2022 sourceCould not verify

  The Conclusion (p. 12) says fiscal buffers and insurance schemes can help countries cope with climate change, but it does not discuss redundancy, backup components, or preventing complete system failure. Searches for those concepts found no passage addressing the claim. (LLM, conf=0.76)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Resilience operates as a buffering architecture that determines whether compound water stress and migration pressures remain manageable or translate into broader institutional decline.

“Across these domains, resilience operates as a buffering architecture that determines whether compound water stress and migration pressures remain manageable or translate into broader institutional decline (Sánchez & Jiménez-Fernández, 2023).”

• cites Sánchez & Jiménez-Fernández, 2023 sourcePartly supported

  The Conceptual Framework (page unavailable) defines resilience as the ability to face shocks while preserving societal well-being, which supports the general buffering idea. The Data and Variables section treats migration as a source of socio-economic fragility, but the paper does not establish that resilience determines whether combined water stress and migration pressures lead to institutional decline. (LLM, conf=0.85)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Clear allocation rules for water rights, extraction limits, priority sectors, and emergency rationing reduce ambiguity and limit contestation during scarcity.

“Clear allocation rules regarding water rights, extraction limits, priority sectors, and emergency rationing reduce ambiguity and limit contestation during scarcity (Tukamuhabwa et al., 2023).”

• cites Tukamuhabwa et al., 2023 sourceCould not verify

  Section 6.2, Practical implications (page not provided), recommends clear contractual obligations and contingency provisions for water and sanitation project contractors. It does not address rules for allocating scarce water or whether such rules reduce ambiguity and contestation. Searches for water rights, extraction limits, emergency rationing, and scarcity found no passage addressing the claim. (LLM, conf=0.76)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Cooperative frameworks in transboundary basins reduce uncertainty and lower the probability of inter-state tension under variable flow conditions.

“The literature shows that cooperative frameworks reduce uncertainty and lower the probability of inter-state tension under variable flow conditions.”

• cites Daskalopoulou et al., 2023 sourceCould not verify

  The Introduction discusses cooperation in social entrepreneurship, and the Discussion (Section 5) discusses social capital and institutional development. Neither addresses transboundary basins, variable flows, uncertainty, or inter-state tension. Searches for those terms and for cooperative water-resource frameworks found no supporting passage in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.76)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Migration can amplify fiscal and administrative stress when destination areas must expand water supply, sanitation, health services, and housing regulation within short time frames.

“Migration can amplify fiscal and administrative stress when destination areas must expand water supply systems, sanitation infrastructure, health services, and housing regulation within short time frames (Tshimanga et al., 2021).”

• cites Tshimanga et al., 2021 sourcePartly supported

  The paper’s “Perception of climate change” section says migration in northeastern DRC contributes to deteriorating socioeconomic conditions, while “Identification elements” describes inadequate water and sanitation infrastructure. It does not say that destination governments face fiscal or administrative stress from rapidly expanding water, sanitation, health, or housing-regulation services. (LLM, conf=0.82)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Maintenance of pipelines, reservoirs, treatment plants, and irrigation networks determines whether physical scarcity is amplified by distribution inefficiencies.

“Maintenance of pipelines, reservoirs, treatment plants, and irrigation networks determines whether physical scarcity is amplified by distribution inefficiencies.”

• cites Seijger, 2023 sourceCould not verify

  Section 2.1 (p. 2) discusses how irrigation interventions can redistribute water and reduce downstream return flows, but does not address maintenance or distribution inefficiencies. Searches for pipelines, reservoirs, treatment plants, irrigation-network maintenance, and physical scarcity found no passage supporting the attributed claim. (LLM, conf=0.74)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Higher water stress is associated with measurable declines in state capacity indicators, particularly where fiscal systems depend on climate-sensitive sectors and service systems lack redundancy.

“First, higher levels of climate-induced water stress are associated with measurable declines in state capacity indicators, particularly where fiscal systems are dependent on climate-sensitive sectors and service systems lack redundancy (Zarei, 2020).”

• cites Zarei, 2020 sourcePartly supported

  The Introduction (page unavailable) links water scarcity to regional stability and economic development, and Section 4 (page unavailable) says resource inequities can weaken states’ effectiveness. The paper does not report measurable declines in state-capacity indicators or identify dependence on climate-sensitive fiscal sectors and a lack of service-system redundancy as conditions for such declines. (LLM, conf=0.82)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Water storage capacity, reservoir size relative to demand, groundwater recharge management, and redundancy in distribution networks function as physical buffers that reduce the immediate impact of drought.

“Water storage capacity, reservoir size relative to demand, groundwater recharge management, and redundancy in distribution networks all function as physical buffers that reduce the immediate impact of drought (Mavhura et al., 2021).”

• cites Mavhura et al., 2021 sourcePartly supported

  Section 2.1 describes resilience as buffering systems against hazards, and the Discussion (section 5) identifies water infrastructure as a driver of disaster resilience and irrigation as relevant in drought-prone districts. Neither passage identifies water-storage capacity, reservoir size relative to demand, groundwater recharge management, or distribution-network redundancy as buffers that reduce drought’s immediate impact. Page numbers were not supplied in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.82)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Water stress showed a significant inverse link to state capacity, especially in fiscal and service-delivery areas.

“The statistical results demonstrated that climate-induced water stress was significantly and negatively associated with state capacity, particularly within fiscal and service delivery domains (Lamain, 2022).”

• cites Lamain, 2022 sourceCould not verify

  The Introduction discusses climate-security framing and resource scarcity, but does not report a statistical relationship between water stress and state capacity. Searches for the claimed negative association, fiscal and service-delivery domains, and state capacity found no passage addressing that result in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.75)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Climate-induced water stress is negatively associated with state capacity.

“Climate-induced water stress was found to have a statistically significant negative association with state capacity (β = -0.21,p < .001),particularly within fiscal and service delivery domains.”

• Also stated in: § Hypothesis Testing Decisions · plain

  “In the baseline model, water stress had a coefficient of -0.21 (SE = 0.05, t = -4.20,p < .001).”

• Also stated in: § Hypothesis Testing Decisions · plain

  “Water stress showed a significant negative association with state capacity, supporting the first hypothesis.”

• Also stated in: § Hypothesis Testing Decisions · plain

  “Water stress effects remained negative and statistically significant across all models, with coefficients ranging from -0.16 to -0.24.”

Migration pressure is negatively associated with state capacity.

“Migration pressure also demonstrated a significant negative effect (β = -0.17,p = .005),with stronger impacts observed in administrative coordination indicators.”

• Also stated in: § Hypothesis Testing Decisions · plain

  “In the baseline model, migration pressure had a coefficient of -0.17 (SE = 0.06, t = -2.83,p = .005).”

• Also stated in: § Hypothesis Testing Decisions · boosted

  “Migration pressure also demonstrated a statistically significant negative effect, supporting the second hypothesis.”

• Also stated in: § Hypothesis Testing Decisions · plain

  “Migration pressure effects were consistently negative, ranging from -0.11 to -0.19.”

Stronger water governance reduced the magnitude of the water stress effect on state capacity (β = 0.09, p = .025).

“Moderation analysis revealed that stronger water governance reduced the magnitude of the water stress effect (β = 0.09, p = .025),while resilience capacity significantly buffered compound pressure (β = 0.12, p = .003).”

The marginal effect of water stress on state capacity increased from -0.18 at low migration levels to -0.29 at high migration levels.

“Marginal effects analysis showed that the impact of water stress increased from -0.18 at low migration levels to -0.29 at high migration levels.”

Climate-induced water stress had a statistically significant negative association with state capacity (β = -0.21, p < .001).

“Climate-induced water stress was found to have a statistically significant negative association with state capacity (β = -0.21,p < .001),particularly within fiscal and service delivery domains.”

The interaction between water stress and migration was negative and statistically significant (β = -0.11, p = .006).

“The interaction between water stress and migration was negative and significant (β = -0.11,p = .006),indicating that institutional strain intensified under compound stress conditions.”

The negative effect of migration pressure on state capacity was stronger in administrative coordination indicators.

“Migration pressure also demonstrated a significant negative effect (β = -0.17,p = .005),with stronger impacts observed in administrative coordination indicators.”

Resilience capacity significantly buffered compound pressure from water stress and migration on state capacity (β = 0.12, p = .003).

“Moderation analysis revealed that stronger water governance reduced the magnitude of the water stress effect (β = 0.09, p = .025),while resilience capacity significantly buffered compound pressure (β = 0.12, p = .003).”

The negative association of climate-induced water stress with state capacity was particularly strong in fiscal and service delivery domains.

“Climate-induced water stress was found to have a statistically significant negative association with state capacity (β = -0.21,p < .001),particularly within fiscal and service delivery domains.”

Migration pressure had a moderate negative correlation with administrative effectiveness (r = -0.27).

“Migration pressure exhibited a moderate negative correlation with administrative effectiveness (r = -0.27).”

Hydrological stress was linked to measurable drops in administrative effectiveness and service reliability.

“The present findings extended this line of inquiry by demonstrating that hydrological stress was not only correlated with macroeconomic downturns but also with measurable declines in administrative effectiveness and service reliability.”

The water stress × migration pressure interaction was significant and negative (β = -0.11, p < .01).

“When the interaction between water stress and migration pressure was introduced, the compound effect was statistically significant and negative (β = -0.11,p < .01).”

Every item-total correlation was above 0.40.

“All item-total correlations exceeded 0.40”

Better water governance quality weakened the water stress effect (interaction β = 0.09, p < .05).

“Moderation analysis demonstrated that stronger water governance quality reduced the magnitude of the water stress effect (interaction β = 0.09, p < .05).”

Resilience capacity buffered the compound stress effect (interaction β = 0.12, p < .01).

“Similarly, resilience capacity buffered compound stress effects (interaction β = 0.12, p < .01).”

Higher migration pressure strengthens the inverse link between water stress and state capacity.

“The compound stress coefficient was -0.11 (SE = 0.04, t = -2.75,p = .006).”

• Also stated in: § Hypothesis Testing Decisions · boosted

  “The compound stress interaction term was negative and significant, confirming that migration amplified the water stress effect and supporting the third hypothesis.”

• Also stated in: § Hypothesis Testing Decisions · plain

  “The compound stress interaction remained negative and stable, with coefficients between -0.08 and -0.13.”

The estimated water-stress effect on state capacity was -0.18 when migration was low and -0.29 when migration was high, a 61.1% larger magnitude.

“Marginal effects indicated that the estimated effect of water stress on state capacity increased from -0.18 at low migration levels to -0.29 at high migration levels, reflecting a 61.1% increase in magnitude under high migration pressure.”

In the baseline model, water stress was significantly negatively associated with state capacity, with a one-unit rise in standardized water stress linked to a 0.21 decrease in the composite score (p < .001).

“The baseline model showed that climate-induced water stress was significantly and negatively associated with state capacity.A one-unit increase in standardized water stress corresponded to a 0.21 decrease in the state capacity composite score (p < .001).”

A spatial sensitivity check found small spillovers from drought in neighboring areas.

“Spatial sensitivity analysis indicated modest spillover effects from neighboring drought conditions, aligning with prior research highlighting regional diffusion dynamics in both environmental exposure and displacement flows.”

The state capacity composite had strong internal consistency, Cronbach's alpha = 0.88.

“The state capacity composite, consisting of administrative effectiveness, fiscal performance, and service delivery reliability indicators, demonstrated strong internal consistency with a Cronbach's alpha of 0.88.”

Marginal effects showed the negative water stress effect on state capacity grew from -0.18 at low migration to -0.29 at high migration.

“Marginal effect analysis showed that the negative effect of water stress on state capacity increased from -0.18 at low migration levels to -0.29 at high migration levels.”

Migration pressure correlated with detectable reductions in state capacity, especially in administrative coordination and service delivery.

“The present analysis confirmed that migration pressure was associated with measurable declines in state capacity, with particularly strong effects observed in administrative coordination and service delivery indicators.”

Robustness checks with alternative water stress and migration measures yielded consistent results.

“Robustness checks using alternative water stress and migration measures produced consistent results.”

Lagged state capacity is strongly significant, indicating institutional persistence.

“Lagged state capacity remained strongly significant, confirming institutional persistence.”

• Also stated in: § Hypothesis Testing Decisions · boosted

  “Across all models, the lagged dependent variable was strongly significant (β range = 0.79 to 0.82, p < .001),confirming strong institutional persistence.”

• Also stated in: § Figure 12: Climate Stress Impacts on Governance · boosted

  “The strong persistence of state capacity across time, as indicated by the significant lagged dependent variable, aligned with earlier institutional research emphasizing structural inertia.”

Alpha-if-deleted diagnostics showed that dropping any single item did not meaningfully improve reliability.

“alpha-if-deleted diagnostics indicated that removing any single item did not improve overall reliability beyond marginal increments.”

Moderation models within R2 rose to 0.55 and 0.57.

“The inclusion of moderating variables increased model explanatory power, with within R² values rising to 0.55 and 0.57.”

Resilience capacity had acceptable internal consistency, Cronbach's alpha = 0.76.

“Resilience capacity exhibited acceptable internal consistency, with a Cronbach's alpha of 0.76.”

Better water governance reduces the adverse link between water stress and state capacity.

“The positive interaction between water stress and governance quality indicated that stronger governance reduced the negative institutional impact of environmental stress.”

• Also stated in: § Hypothesis Testing Decisions · plain

  “Moderation analysis showed that governance quality significantly reduced the negative water stress effect, supporting the fourth hypothesis.”

• Also stated in: § Hypothesis Testing Decisions · plain

  “Governance moderation remained positive across specifications, ranging from 0.06 to 0.12.”

Water governance quality showed good reliability, Cronbach's alpha = 0.81.

“The Cronbach's alpha value for this construct was 0.81, exceeding commonly accepted thresholds and supporting its use as a single aggregated moderator variable.”

Higher resilience capacity lessens institutional strain when stressors combine.

“Similarly, resilience capacity significantly weakened the compound effect of water stress and migration.”

• Also stated in: § Hypothesis Testing Decisions · hedged

  “The compound stress moderation coefficient was 0.12 (SE = 0.04, t = 3.00, p = .003),indicating that resilience capacity significantly reduced the negative impact of combined water stress and migration pressure.”

• Also stated in: § Hypothesis Testing Decisions · plain

  “Resilience moderation also remained positive and stable, ranging from 0.09 to 0.15.”

Disaggregated models showed stronger effects for fiscal capacity (β = -0.24, p < .001) and service delivery reliability (β = -0.19, p < .01) than for administrative effectiveness (β = -0.14, p < .05).

“Disaggregated models indicated stronger effects in fiscal capacity (β = -0.24,p < .001)and service delivery reliability (β = -0.19,p < .01)relative to administrative effectiveness (β = -0.14, p < .05).”

Within R2 increased from 0.47 to 0.52 with interaction.

“The within R² increased from 0.47 to 0.52 when the interaction term was introduced, indicating improved explanatory power.”

Water governance is a key mediator of climate security outcomes.

“Water governance therefore becomes a key mediator of climate security outcomes (Kangero, 2024).”

• cites Kangero, 2024 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Institutional strain intensified under compound water stress and migration conditions.

“The interaction between water stress and migration was negative and significant (β = -0.11,p = .006),indicating that institutional strain intensified under compound stress conditions.”

Governance quality and resilience functioned as measurable institutional buffers against the effects of water stress and migration on state capacity.

“Findings demonstrated that environmental scarcity and demographic redistribution operated both independently and interactively to challenge state capacity, while governance quality and resilience functioned as measurable institutional buffers.”

Environmental scarcity and demographic redistribution affected state capacity both separately and through their interaction.

“Findings demonstrated that environmental scarcity and demographic redistribution operated both independently and interactively to challenge state capacity, while governance quality and resilience functioned as measurable institutional buffers.”

Water stress is not merely an environmental condition but a systemic governance stressor.

“These pathways demonstrate that water stress is not merely an environmental condition but a systemic governance stressor.”

The convergence of drought indices, remote sensing, and global hydrological models has made climate-induced water stress one of the most empirically tractable climate variables for large-scale analysis.

“The convergence of drought indices, remote sensing technologies, and global hydrological models has made climate-induced water stress one of the most empirically tractable climate variables for largescale analysis, enabling systematic investigation of how climatic pressures translate into institutional strain across diverse national and subnational contexts.”

Better water governance can lessen the adverse impact of water stress through more efficient allocation, greater storage and distribution infrastructure, and more reliable services.

“The quantitative relevance of water governance lies in its measurable role as a moderating or mediating factor: governance quality can reduce the negative effects of water stress by improving allocation efficiency, expanding storage and distribution infrastructure, and maintaining service reliability.”

Environmental stress interacts with institutional design rather than operating independently.

“Together, these strands reinforce the argument that environmental stress interacts with institutional design rather than operating independently.”

Cumulative evidence across conflict research, economic analysis, disaster governance, and institutional theory provides a robust foundation for examining how climate variability affects the operational strength of states.

“The cumulative evidence across multiple empirical domains-conflict research, economic analysis, disaster governance, and institutional theory-establishes a robust foundation for examining how climate variability affects the operational strength of states.”

Climate-security scholarship has expanded to include measures of governance performance, fiscal resilience, and administrative continuity.

“Climate-security scholarship has therefore expanded to include measures of governance performance, fiscal resilience, and administrative continuity.”

The literature supports treating water stress as a structural driver of administrative and fiscal overload.

“The literature therefore supports treating water stress as a structural driver of administrative and fiscal overload, which aligns directly with this study's focus on state capacity as an outcome.”

Bureaucratic professionalism and coordination capacity improve crisis management outcomes.

“Public administration studies show that bureaucratic professionalism and coordination capacity improve crisis management outcomes (Abbas et al., 2023; Shofiul Azam, 2025; Akter & Aditya, 2025).”

• cites Abbas et al., 2023 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Shofiul Azam, 2025Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Akter & Aditya, 2025Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Fiscal strain is a critical mediator between environmental shocks and institutional instability.

“Studies in political economy and disaster governance frequently emphasize that fiscal strain is a critical mediator between environmental shocks and institutional instability.”

Water stress functions as a driver of institutional strain through multiple simultaneous causal pathways across economic, administrative, and political domains.

“A central theme in the literature is that water stress functions as a driver of institutional strain through multiple causal pathways that operate simultaneously across economic, administrative, and political domains.”

High resilience allows states to buffer scarcity through diversified supply, demand management, emergency planning, and equitable allocation.

“When resilience is high, states can buffer scarcity through diversified supply systems, demand management, emergency planning, and equitable allocation.”

Empirical measures of capacity, such as government effectiveness indices, tax-to-GDP ratios, and service coverage statistics, provide quantifiable outcomes that respond to stress.

“Empirical measures of capacity, including government effectiveness indices, tax-to-GDP ratios, and service coverage statistics, provide quantifiable outcomes that respond to stress.”

Because capacity measures respond to stress, state capacity is particularly suitable for quantitative modeling in climate-security research.

“This responsiveness makes state capacity particularly suitable for quantitative modeling in climate-security research.”

Anomaly shocks in typically water-secure regions can produce sharper institutional disruption because infrastructure and governance systems may not be designed for scarcity.

“In contrast, anomaly shocks in regions that are typically water-secure can produce sharper institutional disruption because infrastructure and governance systems may not be designed for scarcity.”

When fiscal resources are constrained, governments may reduce spending on maintenance and public services, generating a cycle of infrastructure deterioration and further service disruption.

“When fiscal resources are constrained, governments may reduce spending on maintenance and public services, which can generate a cycle of infrastructure deterioration and further service disruption (Sultana et al., 2024).”

• cites Sultana et al., 2024 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

This creates fiscal stress that can undermine the state's ability to sustain public goods provision and long-term development investment.

“This creates fiscal stress that can undermine the state's ability to sustain public goods provision and long-term development investment.”

The combined fiscal pressure from drought losses exposes weaknesses in fiscal management and administrative coordination.

“This dual pressure exposes weaknesses in fiscal management and administrative coordination.”

Drought severity must be interpreted relative to long-term climatic norms rather than absolute rainfall totals alone.

“This distinction is important in empirical modeling because it suggests that drought severity must be interpreted relative to longterm climatic norms rather than absolute rainfall totals alone.”

Temperature increases can slow growth in lower-income countries, indirectly affecting state revenue and administrative resources.

“Economic analyses reveal that temperature increases can slow growth in lower-income countries, indirectly influencing state revenue and administrative resources.”

Temperature and precipitation anomalies can affect GDP growth, agricultural productivity, and commodity prices, especially in economies that depend on rain-fed agriculture.

“Empirical studies demonstrate that temperature and precipitation anomalies can influence GDP growth rates, agricultural productivity, and commodity prices, particularly in economies dependent on rain-fed agriculture (Mostafa, 2025; Ratul, 2025; Warsame et al., 2021).”

• cites Mostafa, 2025Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Ratul, 2025Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Warsame et al., 2021 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Drought-related economic contraction can reduce government revenues through declining agricultural output, reduced trade, and lower economic growth.

“Drought-related economic contraction can reduce government revenues through declining agricultural output, reduced trade, and lower economic growth.”

Migration compounds state-capacity pressures by increasing demand for services in receiving areas, raising administrative burden and infrastructure expansion costs.

“Migration compounds these pressures by increasing demand for services in receiving areas, raising the administrative burden on local governments and increasing the cost of infrastructure expansion.”

Climatic shocks test state capacity by raising demands for services while reducing fiscal resources.

“Scholars argue that climatic shocks test state capacity by increasing service demands while constraining fiscal resources (Ren et al., 2022; Shamsunnahar, 2025; Yousuf et al., 2025).”

• cites Ren et al., 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Shamsunnahar, 2025Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Yousuf et al., 2025Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

These economic shocks increase demands for state intervention, including relief programs, subsidies, emergency employment schemes, and food assistance.

“These economic shocks increase demands for state intervention, including relief programs, subsidies, emergency employment schemes, and food assistance.”

Climate-induced water stress can challenge administrative, fiscal, and security capacity simultaneously.

“Climate-induced water stress can challenge all three dimensions simultaneously.”

Focusing on state capacity rather than only conflict incidence broadens the analytical lens to include subtler institutional strain that precedes overt instability.

“By focusing on state capacity rather than solely on conflict incidence, the literature broadens its analytical lens to include subtler forms of institutional strain that precede overt instability (Chandio et al., 2020).”

• cites Chandio et al., 2020Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Governments often face increased expenditures for disaster response, infrastructure repair, water trucking, and public health interventions after drought.

“At the same time, governments often face increased expenditures for disaster response, infrastructure repair, water trucking, and public health interventions.”

Water stress generates rural livelihood shocks when agriculture and livestock systems fail, increasing demands for subsidies, emergency support, and public assistance.

“It also generates rural livelihood shocks when agriculture and livestock systems fail, increasing demands for subsidies, emergency support, and public assistance.”

Governance systems often allocate water preferentially to politically powerful sectors, leaving marginalized rural and informal urban communities more vulnerable.

“The literature also highlights that governance systems often allocate water preferentially to politically powerful sectors, such as commercial agriculture or industry, leaving marginalized rural communities and informal urban neighborhoods more vulnerable.”

Water stress creates direct service burdens by forcing utilities to ration water, repair infrastructure, and address quality degradation, which raises administrative workload and citizen dissatisfaction.

“Water stress can create direct service burdens when utilities must ration water, repair infrastructure, and respond to quality degradation, increasing administrative workload and citizen dissatisfaction (Koliou et al., 2020).”

• cites Koliou et al., 2020Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Temporal granularity matters because drought unfolds over months or years, shaping a sequence of mobility decisions rather than a single event.

“Temporal granularity matters because drought often unfolds over months or years, shaping a sequence of mobility decisions rather than a single event.”

The literature provides a rationale for modeling water stress in interaction with structural moderators such as economic dependence, urbanization, and governance quality.

“By documenting these heterogeneity patterns, the literature provides a strong rationale for modeling water stress in interaction with structural moderators such as economic dependence, urbanization, and governance quality (Leal Filho et al., 2023).”

• cites Leal Filho et al., 2023 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Labor market substitution appears in empirical work, where households shift from farming into informal urban labor or seasonal migration to stabilize earnings.

“Labor market substitution also appears in empirical work, where households shift from farming into informal urban labor or seasonal migration to stabilize earnings.”

Migration outcomes vary by time horizon, with short-term coping movements differing from long-term relocation decisions.

“The measurement literature also highlights that migration outcomes vary by time horizon, with short-term coping movements differing from long-term relocation decisions.”

These conditions increase the relative attractiveness of migration to locations with wage labor opportunities, diversified economies, and better service provision.

“These conditions increase the relative attractiveness of migration to locations with wage labor opportunities, diversified economies, and better service provision.”

Immobility can produce selection bias: observed migration captures those who can move, while those who remain may face deeper vulnerability and higher mortality risk.

“This concept matters for quantitative work because immobility can produce selection bias: observed migration captures those who can move, while those who remain may face deeper vulnerability and higher mortality risk.”

In diversified economies, drought may still disrupt water services and food systems but may produce weaker direct effects on national revenue and employment.

“In diversified economies, drought may still disrupt water services and food systems but may produce weaker direct effects on national revenue and employment.”

As service quality declines, households face stronger incentives to relocate toward areas where water access and health infrastructure are more reliable, particularly families with children and medically vulnerable members.

“As service quality declines, households face stronger incentives to relocate toward areas where water access and health infrastructure are more reliable, particularly for families with children and medically vulnerable members.”

Rapid urban growth and informal settlement expansion can intensify urban water stress even when regional hydrology is stable, because demand outpaces network expansion.

“Rapid urban growth and informal settlement expansion can intensify urban water stress even when regional hydrology is stable, because demand outpaces network expansion.”

If the mechanism is implementation overload caused by population inflows, then administrative and service indicators become central.

“If the mechanism is implementation overload caused by population inflows, then administrative and service indicators become central (Janker & Mann, 2020).”

• cites Janker & Mann, 2020Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Subnational panel datasets allow estimation of how drought exposure correlates with population redistribution across districts, bridging household decision frameworks and state-level governance outcomes.

“At broader scales, subnational panel datasets allow estimation of how drought exposure correlates with population redistribution across districts, providing a bridge between household decision frameworks and state-level governance outcomes.”

Migration concentrates service demand in cities and border districts.

“Drought hotspots concentrate livelihood collapse in rural areas, while migration concentrates service demand in cities and border districts.”

Fragmented governance structures with overlapping or unclear mandates often struggle to respond effectively to drought conditions.

“Fragmented governance structures, where multiple agencies operate with overlapping or unclear mandates, often struggle to respond effectively to drought conditions.”

Persistent service failures can lead citizens to interpret them as institutional incompetence or political bias, reducing trust and compliance.

“When service failures persist, citizens may interpret them as institutional incompetence or political bias, reducing trust and compliance.”

The relationship between water stress and state capacity becomes more pronounced when migration pressure is high.

“Third, the relationship between water stress and state capacity becomes more pronounced when migration pressure is high, reflecting the compounded burden of supply reduction and demand expansion.”

Drought hotspots concentrate livelihood collapse in rural areas.

“Drought hotspots concentrate livelihood collapse in rural areas, while migration concentrates service demand in cities and border districts.”

Water stress directly influences state capacity by constraining resource availability, increasing service demand, and generating fiscal strain through economic contraction.

“Water stress influences state capacity directly by constraining resource availability, increasing service demand, and generating fiscal strain through economic contraction.”

Severe drought can overwhelm even well-designed institutions if stress exceeds infrastructure and fiscal limits.

“For instance, severe drought can overwhelm even well-designed institutions if stress exceeds infrastructure and fiscal limits, yet governance quality still shapes the trajectory and duration of institutional strain.”

Resilience is uneven across regions and sectors within the same country.

“The literature underscores that resilience is uneven across regions and sectors within the same country, which means subnational variation is often significant in quantitative studies examining water stress and institutional strain.”

Territorial and coordination capacity is central because the burdens of water stress and migration are geographically uneven.

“Territorial and coordination capacity is central in this cycle because the burdens of water stress and migration are geographically uneven (Donald et al., 2020).”

• cites Donald et al., 2020 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Strong governance systems with effective enforcement, transparent allocation rules, and coordinated agencies can absorb drought-related pressure by reallocating supply, implementing demand management, and maintaining service reliability.

“Strong governance systems with effective enforcement, transparent allocation rules, and coordinated agencies can absorb droughtrelated pressure by reallocating supply, implementing demand management, and maintaining service reliability.”

Formal laws and policies may appear strong on paper while implementation remains inconsistent due to political interference or resource constraints.

“Formal laws and policies may appear strong on paper while implementation remains inconsistent due to political interference or resource constraints (Ali et al., 2020).”

• cites Ali et al., 2020Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Visible breakdown in services can rapidly erode trust, increasing contestation and enforcement burdens.

“Conversely, visible breakdown in services can rapidly erode trust, increasing contestation and enforcement burdens.”

High levels of water loss due to poor infrastructure management can convert moderate drought into acute urban shortages.

“High levels of water loss due to poor infrastructure management can convert moderate drought into acute urban shortages.”

Compound shocks can expose coordination weaknesses between central and local authorities, especially when responsibilities are fragmented across agencies.

“Empirical research also suggests that compound shocks can expose coordination weaknesses between central and local authorities, especially when responsibilities for water management, migration governance, and public health are fragmented across agencies (Davis et al., 2021).”

• cites Davis et al., 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Stronger water governance systems are associated with weaker negative relationships between water stress and state capacity.

“Fourth, stronger water governance systems are associated with weaker negative relationships between water stress and state capacity, indicating a buffering role for institutional quality in moderating environmental impacts (Nagabhatla et al., 2021).”

• cites Nagabhatla et al., 2021 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Water stress indirectly shapes institutional performance through its influence on migration patterns.

“At the same time, water stress indirectly shapes institutional performance through its influence on migration patterns.”

Governance deterioration leads to observable reductions in state capacity.

“As governance deteriorates, institutional performance declines, leading to observable reductions in state capacity (Ke et al., 2021).”

• cites Ke et al., 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Water stress and migration have interconnected and reinforcing dynamics.

“Rather than examining water stress or migration in isolation, this body of research emphasizes their interconnected and reinforcing dynamics (Sen, 2024).”

• cites Sen, 2024Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Large or rapid migration inflows can cause administrative backlogs in registration, enforcement, and planning.

“When inflows are large or rapid, administrative systems can experience backlogs in registration, enforcement, and planning.”

Institutional learning, redundancy, and flexibility prevent the escalation of compound stress into systemic breakdown.

“Resilience research also emphasizes the importance of institutional learning, redundancy, and flexibility in preventing the escalation of compound stress into systemic breakdown.”

Governance quality shapes the trajectory and duration of institutional strain.

“For instance, severe drought can overwhelm even well-designed institutions if stress exceeds infrastructure and fiscal limits, yet governance quality still shapes the trajectory and duration of institutional strain.”

Compound pressures accelerate movement toward thresholds because coping mechanisms that function under single stressors may fail under concurrent shocks.

“Compound pressures accelerate movement toward these thresholds because coping mechanisms that function under single stressors may fail under concurrent shocks (Bufe et al., 2022).”

• cites Bufe et al., 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

The interaction of water stress and migration represents a form of institutional congestion, straining both the capacity to supply resources and the ability to manage demand.

“The interaction of water stress and migration thus represents a form of institutional congestion, where both the capacity to supply resources and the ability to manage demand are strained.”

Higher resilience capacity is associated with reduced institutional strain under compound water stress and migration conditions.

“Finally, higher resilience capacity-reflected in fiscal continuity, infrastructure redundancy, and adaptive policy systems-is associated with reduced institutional strain under compound water stress and migration conditions.”

Governance systems often struggle more with simultaneous shocks than with isolated events because resources and administrative attention must be divided across sectors.

“The literature on compound risk emphasizes that governance systems often struggle more with simultaneous shocks than with isolated events because resources and administrative attention must be divided across sectors.”

Governance quality and resilience are structural conditions that shape the magnitude and trajectory of stress impacts.

“The integrated nexus also acknowledges that governance quality and resilience are not peripheral variables but structural conditions that shape the magnitude and trajectory of stress impacts (Mianabadi et al., 2022).”

• cites Mianabadi et al., 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Higher migration pressure is associated with institutional strain, especially in administrative and service-delivery domains.

“Second, higher levels of migration pressure are associated with institutional strain, especially in administrative and servicedelivery domains where sudden inflows increase coordination and expenditure requirements.”

Resilience components collectively form an architecture that can buffer compound environmental and demographic shocks.

“These measurable components collectively form a resilience architecture that can buffer compound environmental and demographic shocks (Mithani et al., 2021).”

• cites Mithani et al., 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Resilient systems manage displacement surges more effectively by expanding services without prolonged disruption to host communities.

“The literature consistently shows that resilient systems manage displacement surges more effectively by expanding services without prolonged disruption to host communities.”

Migration measures may be underreported, especially in low-capacity states, introducing possible systematic measurement error correlated with dependent variable.

“Migration measures also posed challenges, as internal displacement and informal mobility are frequently underreported, especially in low-capacity states where administrative records are incomplete.”

• Also stated in: § RECOMMENDATIONS · hedged

  “This introduces the possibility of systematic measurement error that correlates with the dependent variable, potentially biasing estimates in either direction.”

Governance quality and resilience acted as buffers against institutional strain when stressors combined.

“These findings demonstrated that governance quality and resilience functioned as protective institutional mechanisms under compound stress conditions.”

• cites Wang et al., 2021 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Environmental and demographic variables jointly shaped institutional outcomes beyond additive expectations.

“The magnitude of the interaction effect suggested that environmental and demographic variables jointly shaped institutional outcomes in a manner that exceeded additive expectations (Chen et al., 2023).”

• cites Chen et al., 2023Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

The observed variability indicated enough structural diversity to model water stress, migration, and institutional outcomes inferentially.

“These variations confirmed sufficient structural diversity for inferential modeling of climate-induced water stress, migration, and institutional outcomes.”

The study uses a census-based inclusion strategy instead of probabilistic sampling.

“The study employs a census-based inclusion strategy rather than probabilistic sampling.”

Migration acted as an institutional stressor that changed how demand was distributed across governance systems.

“However, the results also revealed that migration operated as more than a demographic shift; it functioned as an institutional stressor that altered the distribution of demand within governance systems (Akram et al., 2021).”

• cites Akram et al., 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Migration pressure had a systematic institutional effect, not merely episodic disruption.

“The consistency of this effect across models suggested that migration pressures exerted systematic institutional influence rather than episodic disruption (Ahmad et al., 2023).”

• cites Ahmad et al., 2023Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Even with institutional inertia controlled, water stress and migration had detectable effects.

“The findings here indicated that water stress and migration exerted measurable effects even after controlling for institutional inertia, suggesting that repeated or severe shocks can erode performance over time (Uddin et al., 2020).”

• cites Uddin et al., 2020 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source