Hot spots policing and crime reduction: an update of an ongoing systematic review and meta-analysis

“…have suggested that concentrating police resources at these locations can help reduce crime (Sherman & Weisburd, 1995), and considerable evidence now exists that this routine activities-based strategy (Cohen & Felson, 1979) is effective (Braga et al., 2019; National Research Council, 2004).”

“…such as hotspot policing and place-based predictive policing, have put their faith in the assumption that increased police activity in micro-places with high crime concentrations will result in increased focused deterrence and, therefore, lower crime rates (Braga et al., 2019; Ratcliffe, 2016).”

“A broad body of research, including meta-analyses (e.g. Braga et al., 2019; Weisburd et al., 2008) suggests that policing has a small crime reduction effect.”

“Targeted police interventions at “hot spot streets” mitigate crime without displacing it to surrounding areas (Braga et al., 2019).”

“Spatial concentration and crime hotspots have been linked to small-scale spatial features [4,22], empirically grasped through high-resolution analysis.”

“Given that one of the most popular interventions to reduce crime to date is hot spots policing (Braga et al., 2019), a hot spots intervention needs to be expanded to areas identified as new hot spots to generate a significant overall reduction in commercial burglary in San Francisco.”

“If the gang continues to commit armed violence, the police are then supposed to crackdown on the gang to make the deterrence message credible to the target and other gangs in their network (e.g., Kennedy, Piehl, and Braga 1996; Braga et al. 2019).”

“Thirdly, the literature is fairly consistent in that hot spot policing works (Braga et al., 2019), but the helicopters by their nature do not really target spots, but rather cover larger areas.”

“examining micro-place patterns of spatial concentration have then informed the design and targeting of successful interventions that counter these patterns [17,18].”

“Law enforcement agencies can apply this knowledge to incorporate hotspot patrols into practical crime prevention efforts (Ariel et al., 2020; Braga et al., 2019).”

“It also led to the development of strategies of concentrated policing that encompass a variety of prevention actions aimed at specific individuals, specific crime types, and/ or specific areas (Braga et al., 2019b).”

“This might be due to the responsibility to respond to calls-for-service, and doing so in a rapid manner, but is in con fl ict with recent fi ndings on the crime reduction effect of focused police strategies, that is, hot spots policing (Braga et al., 2019; Koper, 1995).”

“We deem this subfield to be distinct and it has recently been the subject of systematic review (Braga et al., 2019).”

“Whether involving speci fi c policing tactics such as hotspot policing (Sherman & Weisburd, 1995; see also Braga et al. 2019a), focused deterrence (Ariel et al., 2019; see also Braga et al. 2019b), or other proactive interventions (see review Weisburd et al., 2019; cf. Weisburd, Petersen, and Fay…”

“An ongoing systematic review of 65 controlled studies (including 27 randomized experiments and 38 quasi experiments) finds that hot-spots policing is an effective crime prevention strategy (Braga, turchan, et al. 2019).”

“This type of demand is mostly used in research related to hot spots policing (Braga et al., 2019; Groff et al., 2015; Braga and Weisburd 2020) and predictive policing (Hardyns and Rummens 2018; ; Hälterlein, 2021; Ratcliffe et al., 2020; Phillips and Pohl 2021; ).”

“Indeed, directing policing activity towards targeted hotspots reduces crime rates (see Ariel et al., 2020; Braga et al., 2019), and we can speculate that more violence can then be predicted and subsequently prevented using this supplementary data source.”

“This is consistent with place-based interventions against crime more often leading to crime reductions in nontreated nearby locations rather than displacing crime there (Braga et al., 2019).”

“Research shows that hot spot policing has also been associated with a "diffusion of benefits," where crime con-trol effects extend to surrounding areas rather than causing displacement of criminal activity (Braga et al., 2019; Clarke & Weisburd, 1994).”

“Simply, where a lot of crime has been in the past, there will be a lot of crime in the future (see, e.g., Braga et al., 2019; Chainey et al., 2008; Wheeler & Steenbeek, 2020).”

“…Bond, 2008; Braga & Weisburd, 2010; Taylor et al., 2010) and suggests that such approaches hold more promise over the traditional model of policing (Braga et al., 2001, 2012, 2019; Hinkle et al., 2020; Scott & Clarke, 2020; Sherman & Weisburd, 1995; Skogan & Frydl, 2004; Weisburd et al., 2008;…”

“Similarly, a meta-analysis of hot-spot policing models demonstrates a general reduction in incidents in treatment compared to control areas (Braga et al. 2019).”

“…evidence suggests both proactive policing strategies and zero-tolerance policing are concentrated among disadvantaged minority individuals and communities (Braga et al. 2019; Terrill and Resig 2003) and increases the potential for abuse of power and police misconduct (Rengifo and Fowler 2016).”

“This includes place-based interventions that have been proven to reduce crime, such as CCTV (Piza et al. 2019), directed police patrols (Braga et al. 2019) and problem-oriented policing (Hinkle et al. 2020).”

“The evidence on crime hot spots continues to develop rapidly and has yielded consistently supportive results (Braga et al., 2019).”

“After all, there is little doubt that place-based problem solving results can be effective (Braga et al., 2019a; Hinkle et al., 2020), but implementation is always a challenge (Cordner & Biebel, 2005; Groff et al., 2015; Maguire et al., 2015).”

“Policing interventions focused on hot spots can result in significant reductions in crime and disorder (Braga et al. 2019).”

“Despite over three decades of empirical evidence supporting the efficacy of hot spots policing in reducing crime (Braga et al., 2019; Haberman & O’Guinn, 2023) few studies have explored officers’ perceptions of this strategy.”

“As others have extensively reviewed this research, we will not rehash it here (in addition to the NAS reports, see Braga et al., 2019a; Lum & Koper, 2017; Petersen et al., 2024; Sherman & Eck, 2002; Weisburd et al., 2012, 2016).”

“…law stated in this way emphasizes the degree to which crime is highly concentrated in cities at crime hot spots, and has been used to support the underlying principle of concentrating crime prevention resources such as the police at hot spots of crime (Braga et al. 2019; Braga and Weisburd 2022).”

“These may include the installation and deployment of mobile watch towers in public parking spaces, [30] or focused law enforcement approaches such as hotspot policing in areas with high rates of theft to increase capable guardianship [31].”

“While the general consistency of evidence suggests that police presence can reduce crime (for reviews, see inter alia Braga et al., 2019 and Dau et al., 2023), more presence is not always better — the challenge lies in identifying what is enough police presence.”

“…of support services alongside the threat of serious legal consequences if they engage in violence; Hot Spots Policing that focuses police resources on areas with the highest incidence of violence using data-driven strate - gies to pinpoint where interventions may be most needed) [ 39, 40].”

“Technological advancements have enabled strategies like “hotspots” policing, which effectively reduce crime at various geographic levels (Braga et al., 2019; Telep et al., 2014).”

“The information that potential weapons-carriers use to estimate the risk of detection may well be place-specific, as the extensive evidence on hot spots policing suggests (Braga et al. 2019).”

“Agencies commonly allocate their resources in the attempt to efficiently reduce crime at place and neighborhood-levels (Braga et al., 2019; Ratcliffe et al., 2011; Telep et al., 2014).”

“The same has also been shown for hot spot policing more generally (Braga et al., 2019b).”

“Police of fi cers are important actors in the quest to reproduce and maintain social order (Abt 2019; Braga et al. 2019; Frowd 2022).”

“Some places might benefit from more community-oriented or problem-solving approaches, instead of traditional law enforcement tactics such as stop-and-frisks (Braga et al., 2019).”

“According to Braga et al. (2019), the effectiveness of the purpose of reducing crime through police visibility can be obtained if police patrol is targeted at high-crime locations, which requires active collaboration with the residents.”

“…on drug dealers to collaborative problem-solving efforts with the community (NASeM 2018). the most consistent evidence has been found when police focus on “hot spots,” or microgeographic areas where crime is concentrated (Braga et al. 2019; hinkle et al. 2020; NASeM 2018; Weisburd et al. 2017).”

“And in policing, with exception to a small list of police practices that have received considerable empirical attention – such as hot spots policing (e.g., Braga et al., 2019) – policing scholarship has largely not faced the scrutiny of subsequent replication or reproduction efforts either.”

“[52] found that the effects of focused police crime prevention interventions in crime hot spots result in a diffusion of crime control benefits; the results showed that hot spots policing diffused crime control benefits”

“As much as crime responses are most effective when focused on repeat offending (Braga et al. 2019), the target selections of repeat offenders can challenge interventions by creating a structural neighborhood interdependence through which crime can persist and displace or diffuse across a city.”

“This could be done through focused police interventions that reduce the financial returns of illegal work (Braga et al., 2019).”

“Speci fi c practices, like “ hotspot ” policing or other place-based interventions, also feature space as pivotal in the deployment of different styles of policing across neighborhoods or other similar units (Braga et al., 2019; Weisburd & Telep, 2014).”

“…the context of place-based police interventions (e.g., hot spot policing) in the United States and Canada, but also shown using agent-based modeling to impact municipal level crime rates (Braga, Papachristos, and Hureau 2014; Weisburd et al. 2017; Andresen and Hodgkinson 2018; Braga et al. 2019).”

“In these cases, near-location predictions can still be useful, especially when considering the diffusion of crime prevention benefits (e.g., Braga et al., 2019 ).”

“This also reflects the analytical strategies used in similar quasi-experimental studies investigating various crime outcomes (Braga et al., 2019; Brantingham & Uchida, 2021; Ratcliffe & Huffer, 2023; Ratcliffe et al., 2011). but strategically implemented in areas with the highest number of…”

“Numerous studies from North America, Europe and Australasia have shown that hot spot policing can have a significant impact in decreasing crime (see Braga et al., 2019 for a review of 65 hot spot policing programmes from these continents).”

“…fi ed, the policing response put in place to prevent and reduce crime focuses primarily on directing police resources into the area identi fi ed to increase the level of capable guardianship, and systematic research has since corroborated the effectiveness of this approach (Braga et al., 2019).”