Cited by 158Climate change impacts on agricultureClimate Change Policy and EconomicsAgricultural economics and policies

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Impact of climate change on cereal production: evidence from lower-middle-income countries

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Kumar, Pushp, Sahu, Naresh Chandra, Kumar, Siddharth, Ansari, Mohd Arshad·2021·Environmental Science and Pollution Research

DOI 10.1007/s11356-021-14373-9

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Abstract

This study empirically examines the impact of climate change on cereal production in selected lower-middle-income countries with a balanced panel dataset spanning 1971-2016. The study uses average annual temperature and rainfall to measure climate change. Besides this, CO 2 emissions, cultivated land under cereal production, and rural population are used as the control variables. Second-generation unit root tests, i.e., CIPS and CADF, are used to test the stationarity of the variables. Feasible generalized least square (FGLS) and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) models are used to achieve the objective. Pedroni cointegration test confirms the presence of cointegration between cereal production and climate change variables. The findings show that a rise in the temperature reduces cereal production in lower-middle-income countries. In contrast, rainfall and CO 2 emissions have a positive effect on cereal production. For robustness purpose, the Driscoll-Kraay standard regression and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models have also found similar results. Dumitrescu-Hurlin test has found the bidirectional causality of cereal production with temperature and CO 2 emissions. Also, unidirectional causality is running from rainfall and rural population to cereal production. The adverse effects of temperature on cereal production are likely to pose severe implications for food security. The paper recommends that governments of the sample countries should research and develop heat-resistant varieties of cereal crops to cope with the adverse effects of temperature on cereal production and ensure food security.

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Authors: Kumar, P., Sahu, N. C., Kumar, S., & Ansari, M. A.
Affiliations: Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar (IN)
University of Hyderabad (IN)
Corresponding author: Kumar, Pushp
ORCID: Kumar, Pushp
Sahu, Naresh Chandra
Kumar, Siddharth
Ansari, Mohd Arshad
Venue: Environmental Science and Pollution Research
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2021-05-14
Volume: 28
Issue: 37
Pages: 51597-51611
ISSN: 0944-1344 (ISSN-L)
1614-7499
DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-14373-9
OpenAlex: W3136363754
Cited by: 158
References: 95
Citations by year: 2026: 21 · 2025: 39 · 2024: 31 · 2023: 34 · 2022: 28 · 2021: 5
FWCI: 18.56
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
www.springer.com/tdm (vor)
Locations: Environmental Science and Pollution Research (publishedVersion)
Research Square (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Climate change impacts on agriculture
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Agricultural economics and policies
Keywords: climate change, grain production, temperature effects, rainfall, CO2 emissions, food security, lower-middle-income countries, rural population
MeSH terms: Carbon Dioxide, Edible Grain, Developing Countries, Humans, Economic Development, Climate Change

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Impact of climate change on cereal production: evidence from lower-middle-income countries

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