The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences
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People overinterpret noise within small samples, seeing random streaks of past events as meaningful patterns that shape their subsequent predictions.
“This past work suggests that people overinterpret noise within small samples, seeing random streaks of past events (e.g., getting heads for three consecutive coin flips) as meaningful patterns that shape their subsequent predictions.”
From On or Off Track: How (Broken) Streaks Affect Consumer Decisions (2023) · cites this paper as Gilovich, Vallone and Tversky 1985
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References 610 · Cited by 1,649
- Authors
- Gilovich, T., Vallone, R., & Tversky, A.
- Affiliations
- Cornell University (US)
- Stanford University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Gilovich, Thomas
- ORCID
- Gilovich, Thomas
- Venue
- Cognitive Psychology
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 1985-07
- Volume
- 17
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 295-314
- ISSN
- 0010-0285 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2109047492
- Cited by
- 1,649
- References
- 610
- Citations by year
- 2026: 42 · 2025: 52 · 2024: 94 · 2023: 43 · 2022: 58 · 2021: 85 · 2020: 80 · 2019: 74 · 2018: 89 · 2017: 80 · 2016: 64 · 2015: 82 · 2014: 57 · 2013: 71 · 2012: 70
- FWCI
- 3.96
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Cognitive Psychology (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Developmental and Educational Psychology › Sport Psychology and Performance
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Sports Analytics and Performance
- Keywords
- hot hand, basketball, random sequences, representativeness heuristic, free throw shooting, shooting performance, prediction of outcomes
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