Cited by 367Agricultural Innovations and PracticesInnovation Diffusion and ForecastingAgricultural Development and Management

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Predicting farmer uptake of new agricultural practices: A tool for research, extension and policy

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Kuehne, Geoff, Llewellyn, Rick, Pannell, David J., Wilkinson, Roger, Dolling, Perry, Ouzman, Jackie, Ewing, Mike·2017·Agricultural Systems

DOI 10.1016/j.agsy.2017.06.007

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Abstract

There is much existing knowledge about the factors that influence adoption of new practices in agriculture but few attempts have been made to construct predictive quantitative models of adoption for use by those planning agricultural research, development, extension and policy. ADOPT (Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool) is the result of such an attempt, providing predictions of a practice's likely rate and peak level of adoption as well as estimating the importance of various factors influencing adoption. It employs a conceptual framework that incorporates a range of variables, including variables related to economics, risk, environmental outcomes, farmer networks, characteristics of the farm and the farmer, and the ease and convenience of the new practice. The ability to learn about the relative advantage of the practice, as influenced by characteristics of both the practice and the potential adopters, plays a central role. Users of ADOPT respond to 22 questions related to: a) characteristics of the practice that influence its relative advantage, b) characteristics of the population influencing their perceptions of the relative advantage of the practice, c) characteristics of the practice influencing the ease and speed of learning about it, and d) characteristics of the potential adopters that influence their ability to learn about the practice. ADOPT provides a prediction of the diffusion curve of the practice and sensitivity analyses of the factors influencing the speed and peak level of adoption. In this paper the model is described and its ability to predict the diffusion of agricultural practices is demonstrated using examples of new crop types, new cropping technology and grazing options. As well as providing predictions, ADOPT is designed to increase the conceptual understanding and consideration of the adoption process by those involved in agricultural research, development, extension and policy.

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Authors: Kuehne, G., Llewellyn, R., Pannell, D. J., Wilkinson, R., Dolling, P., Ouzman, J., & Ewing, M.
Affiliations: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
The University of Western Australia (AU)
Department of Economic Development Jobs Transport and Resources (AU)
Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia (AU)
Institut des Systèmes Complexes Paris Île-de-France (FR)
Corresponding author: Llewellyn, Rick
ORCID: Kuehne, Geoff
Llewellyn, Rick
Pannell, David J.
Ouzman, Jackie
Venue: Agricultural Systems
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Published: 2017-09
Volume: 156
Pages: 115-125
ISSN: 0308-521X (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2017.06.007
OpenAlex: W2717963309
Cited by: 367
References: 87
Citations by year: 2026: 38 · 2025: 39 · 2024: 45 · 2023: 44 · 2022: 51 · 2021: 55 · 2020: 41 · 2019: 36 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 1
FWCI: 68.39
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: hybrid
doi.org
Licence: cc-by-nc-nd
www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ (vor)
Locations: Agricultural Systems (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
UWA Profiles and Research Repository (UWA) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders: Grains Research and Development Corporation
Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research
CSIRO
University of Western Australia
Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CE11E0083)
Topics: Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agricultural Innovations and Practices
Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agricultural Development and Management
Keywords: technology adoption, agricultural practices, diffusion of innovations, ADOPT, relative advantage, risk perception, farmer networks, ease of learning, diffusion curves, agricultural extension, agricultural policy

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Predicting farmer uptake of new agricultural practices: A tool for research, extension and policy

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