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Cited by 31Diverse Aspects of Tourism ResearchComplex Systems and Decision MakingCoastal and Marine Management

Simulating emerging coastal tourism vulnerabilities: an agent-based modelling approach

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Student, Jillian, Kramer, Mark R., Steinmann, Patrick·2020·Annals of Tourism Research
DOI 10.1016/j.annals.2020.103034
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Abstract

Coastal tourism destinations face a range of climate-related changes. Prevailing challenges include understanding emerging changes and future uncertainties. A dynamic vulnerability approach is a promising way to analyse emerging socio-ecological vulnerabilities. This research presents an innovative coupling of the human-environment system in the agent-based model Coasting, and is applied to Curaçao's coastal tourism. We observe how operator numbers and environmental attractiveness, proxies for socio-ecological vulnerabilities, change over time. Global sensitivity analysis highlights the main interacting factors behind socio-ecological vulnerabilities. Scenario discovery explores the main drivers contributing to undesirable vulnerabilities. The model's findings provide key insights on which factors tourism destinations need to focus on to prevent socio-ecological vulnerabilities.

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  • Most existing coastal models focus on biophysical processes, and only a limited number simulate human activities and their interaction with the biophysical system.

    “Coastal areas are complex socio-environmental systems, yet most models focus on biophysical processes, with few addressing social systems or their interaction with biophysical dynamics.”

    From Towards integrated management of sandy anthropogenic shores: Developing tools for the exploration of human-natural interactions (2025) · cites this paper as Student et al., 2020

    The Introduction (page unavailable) reports limited progress in integrated assessments of coastal tourism, and the Discussion (page unavailable) calls Coasting the first attempt known to the authors to model coastal tourism with human–environment interactions. These passages support the scarcity of integrated models, but do not establish that most existing coastal models focus on biophysical processes. (LLM, conf=0.82)

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Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Student, J., Kramer, M. R., & Steinmann, P.
Affiliations
Wageningen University & Research (NL)
Corresponding author
Student, Jillian
ORCID
Venue
Annals of Tourism Research
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2020-11
Volume
85
Pages
103034
ISSN
0160-7383 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.annals.2020.103034
OpenAlex
W3091971492
Cited by
31
References
1
Citations by year
2026: 5 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 3
FWCI
5.35
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Annals of Tourism Research (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Complex Systems and Decision Making
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Coastal and Marine Management
Keywords
coastal tourism, socio-environmental vulnerability, dynamic vulnerability, climate change impacts, agent-based modeling, tour operators, environmental attractiveness, human-environment systems, scenario discovery, global sensitivity analysis, Curaçao

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