Assessing the impacts of current and future concentrations of surface ozone on crop yield with meta-analysis

Abstract

Meta-analysis was conducted to quantitatively assess the effects of rising ozone concentrations ([O-3]) on yield and yield components of major food crops: potato, barley, wheat, rice, bean and soybean in 406 experimental observations. Yield loss of the crops under current and future [O-3] was expressed relative to the yield under base [O-3] (<= 26 ppb). With potato, current [O-3] (31-50 ppb) reduced the yield by 5.3%, and it reduced the yield of barley, wheat and rice by 8.9%. 9.7% and 17.5%, respectively. In bean and soybean, the yield losses were 19.0% and 7.7%, respectively. Compared with yield loss at current [O-3], future [O-3] (51-75 ppb) drove a further 10% loss in yield of soybean, wheat and rice, and 20% loss in bean. Mass of individual grain, seed, or tuber was often the major cause of the yield loss at current and future [O-3], whereas other yield components also contributed to the yield loss in some cases. No significant difference was found between the responses in crops grown in pots and those in the ground for any yield parameters. The ameliorating effect of elevated [CO2] was significant in the yields of wheat and potato. and the individual grain weight in wheat exposed to future [O-3]. These findings confirm the rising [O-3] as a threat to food security for the growing global population in this century. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.