Quantifying the impact of sulfate geoengineering on mortality from air quality and UV-B exposure
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Other studies estimating air pollution-related mortality have typically calculated mortality uncertainty based on the central intervals of the parameters used in the attributable fraction calculations.
“Other studies estimating air pollution-related mortality have typically calculated mortality uncertainty based on the central intervals of the parameters used in the AF calculations (Peng et al., 2021; Eastham et al., 2018).”
From Air quality impacts of stratospheric aerosol injections are likely small and mainly driven by changes in climate, not aerosol settling (2026) · cites this paper as Eastham et al., 2018
Section 2.4 says the paper treats exposure-response-function parameters as uncertain and uses repeated draws to estimate mortality uncertainty. Table 2 describes parameter distributions using 95% bounds. This supports Eastham et al. as an example of using parameter intervals, but the paper also incorporates climate-related uncertainties and does not establish that this is what other studies typically do or describe its calculation as an attributable-fraction calculation. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredOur use of CESM2(WACCM6) enables interactive coupling between aerosols, chemistry, and climate, unlike previous CTM studies that imposed stratospheric aerosols without capturing feedbacks on dynamics and transport.
“Unlike previous studies using CTMs (e.g., Eastham et al., 2018; Moch et al., 2023), which imposed stratospheric aerosols without capturing feedbacks on dynamics and transport, our use of CESM2(WACCM6) enables interactive coupling between aerosols, chemistry, and climate.”
From Air quality impacts of stratospheric aerosol injections are likely small and mainly driven by changes in climate, not aerosol settling (2026) · cites this paper as Eastham et al., 2018
The Methods and §2.1 describe a CTM with prescribed meteorology: climate feedbacks are decoupled, and temperature and precipitation changes are applied from GCM results. The paper also says GEOS-Chem directly simulates atmospheric transport and that sulfate aerosol is injected into the model; thus, describing the study as imposing aerosols without capturing transport is too broad. The cited paper does not establish the citing authors’ claim about CESM2(WACCM6). (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredRegional changes in PM2.5 concentrations and the corresponding health impacts are mainly driven by shifts in precipitation patterns and/or circulation, which affect the wet removal of nonsulfate species such as dust and secondary organic aerosols.
“Instead, regional changes in PM2 : 5 concentrations and the corresponding health impacts are mainly driven by shifts in precipitation patterns and/or circulation, which affect the wet removal of nonsulfate species such as dust and secondary organic aerosols, consistent with Eastham et al. (2018).”
From Air quality impacts of stratospheric aerosol injections are likely small and mainly driven by changes in climate, not aerosol settling (2026) · cites this paper as Eastham et al., 2018
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredPrevious studies on health impacts of SAI due to air quality changes have either relied on more idealized modeling frameworks and/or simplified mortality estimation methods.
“Previous studies have looked into the health impacts of SAI due to air quality changes (Eastham et al., 2018; Visioni et al., 2020; Moch et al., 2023; Harding et al., 2024). These efforts have either relied on more idealized modeling frameworks and/or simplified mortality estimation methods.”
From Air quality impacts of stratospheric aerosol injections are likely small and mainly driven by changes in climate, not aerosol settling (2026) · cites this paper as Eastham et al., 2018
Currently only 4 papers focus on the health impacts of SAI.
“Yet such health impacts are chronically understudied: currently only 4 papers focus on the health impacts of SAI (Effiong and Neitzel, 2016; Carlson and Trisos, 2018; Eastham et al., 2018; Carlson et al., 2020).”
From A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk (2021) · cites this paper as Eastham et al., 2018
BMRs drawn from the International Futures health model provide dynamic, age- and disease-specific mortality projections consistent with policy interventions following SSP2-4.5, representing a more realistic approach compared to static BMRs.
“Our BMRs are drawn from the International Futures (IFs) health model, providing dynamic, age and disease-specific mortality projections consistent with policy interventions following the SSP2-4.5 scenario (Hughes et al., 2014).”
From Air quality impacts of stratospheric aerosol injections are likely small and mainly driven by changes in climate, not aerosol settling (2026) · cites this paper as Eastham et al., 2018
Section 2.4 describes converting changes in air-quality and UV-B exposure into mortality estimates, while Section 2.1 uses an RCP 4.5 atmospheric projection for 2040. Neither addresses BMRs from the International Futures health model, dynamic age- and disease-specific projections, SSP2-4.5 policy interventions, or a comparison with static BMRs; searches for those terms found no supporting passage. The supplied citing sentence names Hughes et al. (2014), not this paper, but our copy does not establish the claimed point as belonging to that work. (LLM, conf=0.76)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredSulfates come with a well-studied risk of ozone loss.
“Sulfates come with a well-studied risk of ozone loss [210], and they make sunlight slightly more diffuse, which can impact agriculture [642].”
From Tackling climate change with machine learning (2023) · cites this paper as [210]
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References 48 · Cited by 85
Research works printed but not linked: 8
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- Authors
- Eastham, S. D., Weisenstein, D. K., Keith, D. W., & Barrett, S. R. H.
- Affiliations
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- Harvard University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Eastham, Sebastian D.
- Venue
- Atmospheric Environment
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2018-08
- Volume
- 187
- Pages
- 424-434
- ISSN
- 1352-2310 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2803827445
- Cited by
- 85
- References
- 48
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 21 · 2018: 2
- FWCI
- 5.71
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Atmospheric Environment (acceptedVersion)
- DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy
- Florida State University
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Keywords
- solar geoengineering, mortality, air quality, UVB exposure, particulate matter, ozone, radiative forcing, surface cooling, public health risk, chemical transport model, climate change mitigation
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