The DOI matches its Crossref record; 41 of the 41 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Depressive symptoms are associated with unrealistic negative predictions of future life events
Abstract
This study examined the relationship between depressive symptoms and bias in the prediction of future life events. Responding to internet announcements, 153 participants varying widely in self-reported depression symptom severity estimated the probability of 40 events occurring over the succeeding 30 days. After the 30-day period, participants reported which events occurred. Optimistic/pessimistic biases were related to level of depressive symptoms. A non-significant optimistic bias characterized participants with low depressive symptoms whereas a significant pessimistic bias characterized participants with high depressive symptoms. Those reporting mild symptoms did not exhibit a systematic pessimistic or optimistic bias. General imprecision in predictions for undesirable events was associated with depressive symptoms. These findings suggest that depression is associated with pessimistic bias rather than accuracy in judgment.
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Metadata
- Authors
- Strunk, D. R., Lopez, H., & DeRubeis, R. J.
- Affiliations
- University of Pennsylvania (US)
- Corresponding author
- Strunk, Daniel R.
- Venue
- Behaviour Research and Therapy
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2006-06
- Volume
- 44
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 861-882
- ISSN
- 0005-7967 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2083254456
- Cited by
- 307
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 15 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 22 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 25 · 2021: 21 · 2020: 41 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 16 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 19 · 2015: 17 · 2014: 22 · 2013: 12 · 2012: 12
- FWCI
- 3.02
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Behaviour Research and Therapy (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Scholarly Commons (University of Pennsylvania) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Anxiety, Depression, Psychometrics, Treatment, Cognitive Processes
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Applied Psychology › Optimism, Hope, and Well-being
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Keywords
- depressive symptoms, pessimistic bias, optimism bias, prediction of future events, judgment accuracy, negative life events, probability estimation
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Depression, Female, Humans, Internal-External Control, Judgment, Life Change Events, Male, Middle Aged, Psychiatric Status Rating Scales, Psychometrics, Set, Psychology
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