The optimism bias
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Optimism bias can lead people to underestimate their likelihood of contracting a disease.
“it can lead people to underestimate their likelihood of contracting a disease 10”
From Using social and behavioural science to support COVID-19 pandemic response (2020) · cites this paper as [10]
When exposed to positive events, healthy individuals typically make the previous negative events irrelevant.
“When exposed to posi tive events, healthy individuals typically make the previous negative events irrelevant (Garrett and Sharot, 2017; Sharot, 2011).”
From Predictive coding in neuropsychiatric disorders: a systematic transdiagnostic review. (2025) · cites this paper as Sharot, 2011
People update desirable (better than expected) news into their beliefs but discount or ignore undesirable (worse than expected) news.
“Humans form and update their beliefs in an optimistic manner, i.e., people update desirable (better than expected) news into their beliefs but discount or ignore undesirable (worse than expected) news (2, 19, 21).”
From Distinct oxytocin effects on belief updating in response to desirable and undesirable feedback (2016) · cites this paper as [2]
Depression is characterized by the lack of optimistic updating.
“depression, which is characterized by the lack of optimistic updating (2, 20).”
From Distinct oxytocin effects on belief updating in response to desirable and undesirable feedback (2016) · cites this paper as [2]
Optimistic updating is adaptive for mental health.
“Whereas optimistic updating is adaptive for mental health”
From Distinct oxytocin effects on belief updating in response to desirable and undesirable feedback (2016) · cites this paper as [2]
Excessive optimism, especially ignoring undesirable information, can be maladaptive.
“excessive optimism, especially ignoring undesirable information, can be maladaptive (1, 2, 55)”
From Distinct oxytocin effects on belief updating in response to desirable and undesirable feedback (2016) · cites this paper as [2]
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Self-citationThe evolution of overconfidence
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Using social and behavioural science to support COVID-19 pandemic response
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“These findings are of interest with respect to the positivity bias that frequently characterizes future thinking (Sharot, 2011), because such biases have been linked to a number of adaptive processes, including emotional well-being, forming social bonds, productivity at work, and coping with stress effectively (e.”
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Self-citationTaking Stock of Unrealistic Optimism
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Self-citationThe evolution of error: error management, cognitive constraints, and adaptive decision-making biases
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“…that prior beliefs distort beliefs about future and that this optimism about the future propagates backwards in time to influence behaviour in an adaptive way (McKay and Dennett 2010; Sharot 2011), is highly consistent with an influence of beliefs about the future over beliefs about the present.”
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“If, for example, people suffer from “present bias,” or display unrealistic optimism (Sharot 2011) or procrastinate, their lives might be improved or perhaps even saved by helpful information, warnings, reminders, or default rules.”
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- Authors
- Sharot, T.
- Affiliations
- University College London (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Sharot, Tali
- ORCID
- Sharot, Tali
- Venue
- Current Biology
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2011-12
- Volume
- 21
- Issue
- 23
- Pages
- R941-R945
- ISSN
- 0960-9822 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4232964083
- Cited by
- 1,187
- References
- 10
- Citations by year
- 2026: 82 · 2025: 109 · 2024: 134 · 2023: 111 · 2022: 126 · 2021: 123 · 2020: 167 · 2019: 97 · 2018: 79 · 2017: 36 · 2016: 29 · 2015: 33 · 2014: 24 · 2013: 27 · 2012: 6
- FWCI
- 10.74
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Current Biology (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Applied Psychology › Optimism, Hope, and Well-being
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Keywords
- optimism bias, future expectations, overconfidence, self-projection, cognitive biases, decision-making, behavioral economics
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