Assessment of the SARS-CoV-2 basic reproduction number, R0, based on the early phase of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy
Open accessAbstract
As of March 12th Italy has the largest number of SARS-CoV-2 cases in Europe as well as outside China. The infections, first limited in Northern Italy, have eventually spread to all other regions. When controlling an emerging outbreak of an infectious disease it is essential to know the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number R0, i.e. the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual during his/her entire infectious period at the start of an outbreak. Previous work has been limited to the assessment of R0 analyzing data from the Wuhan region or Mainland China. In the present study the R0 value for SARS-CoV-2 was assessed analyzing data derived from the early phase of the outbreak in Italy. In particular, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 was analyzed in 9 cities (those with the largest number of infections) fitting the well-established SIR-model to available data in the interval between February 25–March 12, 2020. The findings of this study suggest that R0 values associated with the Italian outbreak may range from 2.43 to 3.10, confirming previous evidence in the literature reporting similar R0 values for SARS-CoV-2.
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The basic reproduction number for SARS-CoV-2 in Italy was estimated to range between 2.43 and 3.1.
“Conversely, the basic reproduction number is the value of the parametric reproduction number at the first onset of the epidemic outbreak, and its value was estimated to range between 2.43 and 3.1 for SARS-CoV-2 in Italy43.”
From Modeling vaccination rollouts, SARS-CoV-2 variants and the requirement for non-pharmaceutical interventions in Italy (2021) · cites this paper as [43]
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- Authors
- D'Arienzo, M., & Coniglio, A.
- Affiliations
- Fatebenefratelli Hospital (IT)
- ORCID
- Coniglio, Angela
- Venue
- Biosafety and Health
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2020-06
- Volume
- 2
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 57-59
- ISSN
- 2590-0536 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7148916
- OpenAlex
- W3013907808
- Cited by
- 251
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 21 · 2022: 42 · 2021: 90 · 2020: 62
- FWCI
- 8.55
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Biosafety and Health (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Keywords
- SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 pandemic, basic reproduction number, R0 estimation, SIR model, Italy, epidemic spread, secondary infection
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