The DOI matches its Crossref record; 36 of the 36 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Real-time forecasts and risk assessment of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases: A data-driven analysis
Open accessAbstract
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a public health emergency of international concern affecting 201 countries and territories around the globe. As of April 4, 2020, it has caused a pandemic outbreak with more than 11,16,643 confirmed infections and more than 59,170 reported deaths worldwide. The main focus of this paper is two-fold: (a) generating short term (real-time) forecasts of the future COVID-19 cases for multiple countries; (b) risk assessment (in terms of case fatality rate) of the novel COVID-19 for some profoundly affected countries by finding various important demographic characteristics of the countries along with some disease characteristics. To solve the first problem, we presented a hybrid approach based on autoregressive integrated moving average model and Wavelet-based forecasting model that can generate short-term (ten days ahead) forecasts of the number of daily confirmed cases for Canada, France, India, South Korea, and the UK. The predictions of the future outbreak for different countries will be useful for the effective allocation of health care resources and will act as an early-warning system for government policymakers. In the second problem, we applied an optimal regression tree algorithm to find essential causal variables that significantly affect the case fatality rates for different countries. This data-driven analysis will necessarily provide deep insights into the study of early risk assessments for 50 immensely affected countries.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 in China
Guan, W.-J., Ni, Z.-Y., Hu, Y., Liang, W.-H., Ou, C.-Q., He, J.-X., Liu, L., Shan, H., Lei, C.-L., Hui, D. S. C., et al. (2020) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2002032 · Cited by 30,246
The Elements of Statistical Learning
Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., & Friedman, J. (2009) · Springer Series in Statistics · doi:10.1007/978-0-387-84858-7 · Cited by 25,970
Classification and Regression Trees.
Gordon, A. D., Breiman, L., Friedman, J. H., Olshen, R. A., & Stone, C. J. (1984) · Biometrics · doi:10.2307/2530946 · Cited by 23,522
Classification and Regression Trees.
Ryzin, J. V., Breiman, L., Friedman, J. H., Olshen, R. A., & Stone, C. J. (1986) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.2307/2288003 · Cited by 20,825
Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia
Li, Q., Guan, X., Wu, P., Wang, X., Zhou, L., Tong, Y., Ren, R., Leung, K. S. M., Lau, E. H. Y., Wong, J. Y., et al. (2020) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2001316 · Cited by 16,575
No free lunch theorems for optimization
Wolpert, D. H., & Macready, W. G. (1997) · IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation · doi:10.1109/4235.585893 · Cited by 14,237
The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction
John Lu, Z. Q. (2010) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society · doi:10.1111/j.1467-985x.2010.00646_6.x · Cited by 12,390
An Introduction to Statistical Learning
James, G., Witten, D., Hastie, T., & Tibshirani, R. (2013) · Springer Texts in Statistics · doi:10.1007/978-1-4614-7138-7 · Cited by 12,106
A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern
Wang, C., Horby, P. W., Hayden, F. G., & Gao, G. F. (2020) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30185-9 · Cited by 7,700
Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control.
Anderson, O. D., Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1978) · The Statistician · doi:10.2307/2988198 · Cited by 5,298
Cited by
End-to-end design of wearable sensors
Ates, H. C., Nguyen, P. Q., Gonzalez-Macia, L., Morales-Narváez, E., Güder, F., Collins, J. J., & Dincer, C. (2022) · Nature Reviews Materials · doi:10.1038/s41578-022-00460-x · Cited by 1,306
Lalmuanawma, S., Hussain, J., & Chhakchhuak, L. (2020) · Chaos, Solitons & Fractals · doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110059 · Cited by 845
A review on COVID-19 forecasting models
Rahimi, I., Chen, F., & Gandomi, A. H. (2023) · Neural Computing and Applications · doi:10.1007/s00521-020-05626-8 · Cited by 282
Applications of artificial intelligence in battling against covid-19: A literature review
Tayarani N., M.-H. (2021) · Chaos, Solitons & Fractals · doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110338 · Cited by 210
A systematic review on AI/ML approaches against COVID-19 outbreak
Dogan, O., Tiwari, S., Jabbar, M. A., & Guggari, S. (2021) · Complex & Intelligent Systems · doi:10.1007/s40747-021-00424-8 · Cited by 87
Metadata
- Authors
- Chakraborty, T., & Ghosh, I.
- Venue
- Chaos, Solitons & Fractals
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2020-06
- Volume
- 135
- Pages
- 109850
- ISSN
- 0960-0779 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3022122691
- Cited by
- 417
- References
- 36
- FWCI
- 13.78
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Real-time forecasts and risk assessment of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases: A data-driven analysis. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109850
- The paper
- Chakraborty, T., & Ghosh, I. (2020). Real-time forecasts and risk assessment of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases: A data-driven analysis. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109850
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
