Sources of uncertainty in the closed-loop supply chain of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles

Abstract

Due to increasing demand for electric vehicles and short innovation circles of battery, production, and recycling technology, different uncertainties need to be faced at different stages of the supply chain. However, a qualitative analysis of the uncertainties and their sources is missing. Therefore, in this paper the authors propose an empirical approach to the identification of uncertainty occurring in the closed-loop supply chain of lithium-ion batteries from electric vehicles (uncertainty in supply, process, demand, control, and environmental uncertainty). The investigation methodology consists of a content analysis of press media documents related to electric vehicles and the automotive industry. The final content analysis comprises 102 evidences of uncertainty. Consequently, the evidences of uncertainty found are classified in a spectrum between statistical uncertainty and total ignorance (levels of uncertainty). Graphs and data are described to provide detailed information. The results signal predominant environmental uncertainty besides the uncertainty within control and supply of the closed-loop. A conclusion on the investigation shows cobalt as a raw material responsible for increasing uncertainty (boomerang effect). Additionally, the content analysis evidences uncertainty with the availability, quantity, stock control policies, government regulations, and political instability with cobalt, lithium, and nickel.