Cited by 180Computational Drug Discovery MethodsArtificial Intelligence in Healthcare and EducationProtein Degradation and Inhibitors

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How successful are AI-discovered drugs in clinical trials? A first analysis and emerging lessons

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KP Jayatunga, Madura, Ayers, Margaret, Bruens, Lotte, Jayanth, Dhruv, Meier, Christoph·2024·Drug Discovery Today

DOI 10.1016/j.drudis.2024.104009

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Abstract

AI techniques are making inroads into the field of drug discovery. As a result, a growing number of drugs and vaccines have been discovered using AI. However, questions remain about the success of these molecules in clinical trials. To address these questions, we conducted a first analysis of the clinical pipelines of AI-native Biotech companies. In Phase I we find AI-discovered molecules have an 80-90% success rate, substantially higher than historic industry averages. This suggests, we argue, that AI is highly capable of designing or identifying molecules with drug-like properties. In Phase II the success rate is ∼40%, albeit on a limited sample size, comparable to historic industry averages. Our findings highlight early signs of the clinical potential of AI-discovered molecules.

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Authors: KP Jayatunga, M., Ayers, M., Bruens, L., Jayanth, D., & Meier, C.
Affiliations: Boston Consulting Group (United States) (US)
Corresponding author: Meier, Christoph
ORCID: Meier, Christoph
Venue: Drug Discovery Today
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Published: 2024-06
Volume: 29
Issue: 6
Pages: 104009
ISSN: 1359-6446 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1016/j.drudis.2024.104009
OpenAlex: W4396521393
Cited by: 166
References: 20
Citations by year: 2026: 71 · 2025: 76 · 2024: 18
FWCI: 34.98
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: hybrid
www.sciencedirect.com
Licence: cc-by-nc-nd
www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
www.elsevier.com/legal/tdmrep-license (tdm)
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ (vor)
Locations: Drug Discovery Today (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Life Sciences › Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutics › Drug Discovery › Computational Drug Discovery Methods
Health Sciences › Medicine › Health Informatics › Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare and Education
Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Molecular Biology › Protein Degradation and Inhibitors
Keywords: drug discovery, clinical trial success rates, drug-likeness, machine learning in drug discovery
MeSH terms: Artificial Intelligence, Clinical Trials as Topic, Drug Industry, Humans, Drug Discovery

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How successful are AI-discovered drugs in clinical trials? A first analysis and emerging lessons

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