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Cited by 404Dementia and Cognitive Impairment ResearchHealth Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of LifeAlzheimer's disease research and treatments

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Global and regional projections of the economic burden of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias from 2019 to 2050: A value of statistical life approach

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Nandi, Arindam, Counts, Nathaniel, Chen, Simiao, Seligman, Benjamin, Tortorice, Daniel, Vigo, Daniel, Bloom, David E.·2022·eClinicalMedicine
DOI 10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101580PMC PMC9310134
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Abstract

Background: The burden of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRDs) is expected to grow rapidly with population aging, especially in low- and middle-income countries, in the next few decades. We used a willingness-to-pay approach to project the global, regional, and national economic burden of ADRDs from 2019 to 2050 under status quo. Methods: We projected age group and country-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to ADRDs in future years based on historical growth in disease burden and available population projections. We used country-specific extrapolations of the value of a statistical life (VSL) year and its future projections based on historical income growth to estimate the economic burden - measured in terms of the value of lost DALYs - of ADRDs. A probabilistic uncertainty analysis was used to calculate point estimates and 95% uncertainty bounds of the economic burden. Findings: In 2019, the global VSL-based economic burden of ADRDs was an estimated $2.8 trillion. The burden was projected to increase to $4.7 trillion (95% uncertainty bound: $4 trillion-$5.5 trillion) in 2030, $8.5 trillion ($6.8 trillion-$10.8 trillion) in 2040, and $16.9 trillion ($11.3 trillion-$27.3 trillion) in 2050. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) would account for 65% of the global VSL-based economic burden in 2050, as compared with only 18% in 2019. Within LMICs, upper-middle income countries would carry the largest VSL-based economic burden by 2050 (92% of LMICs burden and 60% of global burden). Interpretation: ADRDs have a large and inequitable projected future VSL-based economic burden. Funding: The Davos Alzheimer's Collaborative.

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Crossref · 10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101580

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Figure 1 Methodological summary for projecting future VSL-based economic burden of ADRDs (Model 1).
Figure 1 Methodological summary for projecting future VSL-based economic burden of ADRDs (Model 1).CC BY-NC-ND · PubMed Central
Figure 2 Estimated economic burden of ADRDs by country groups through 2050, trillions of 2020 constant US$ (Model 1). Note: Data were available for 168 countries covering more than 99% of the world population. Country income group classifications are from the World Bank (2020 definition). Disease burden was projected based on constant 2010-2019 growth rate (Model 1). Estimates were based on income elasticity values of E=1 for HICs and E=1.5 for LMICs, and adjusted to 2020 constant US$ using consumer price index data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All future year estimates were discounted at a 3% annual discount rate. LIC: Low-income countries; LMIC: Lower-middle income countries; UMIC: Upper-middle income countries; HIC: High-income countries; T: Trillion.
Figure 2 Estimated economic burden of ADRDs by country groups through 2050, trillions of 2020 constant US$ (Model 1). Note: Data were available for 168 countries covering more than 99% of the world population. Country income group classifications are from the World Bank (2020 definition). Disease burden was projected based on constant 2010-2019 growth rate (Model 1). Estimates were based on income elasticity values of E=1 for HICs and E=1.5 for LMICs, and adjusted to 2020 constant US$ using consumer price index data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All future year estimates were discounted at a 3% annual discount rate. LIC: Low-income countries; LMIC: Lower-middle income countries; UMIC: Upper-middle income countries; HIC: High-income countries; T: Trillion.CC BY-NC-ND · PubMed Central
Figure 3 Estimated economic burden of ADRDs by country through 2050, billions of 2020 US$ (Model 1). Note: Data were available for 168 countries covering more than 99% of the world population. Disease burden was projected based on constant 2010-2019 growth rate (Model 1). Estimates were based on income elasticity values of E=1 for HICs and E=1.5 for LMICs, and adjusted to 2020 constant US$ using consumer price index data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All future year estimates were discounted at a 3% annual discount rate. Countries without data are marked with white color.
Figure 3 Estimated economic burden of ADRDs by country through 2050, billions of 2020 US$ (Model 1). Note: Data were available for 168 countries covering more than 99% of the world population. Disease burden was projected based on constant 2010-2019 growth rate (Model 1). Estimates were based on income elasticity values of E=1 for HICs and E=1.5 for LMICs, and adjusted to 2020 constant US$ using consumer price index data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All future year estimates were discounted at a 3% annual discount rate. Countries without data are marked with white color.CC BY-NC-ND · PubMed Central

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  1. Counts, 2021, Dementia storm on the horizon: the rising incidence of dementia around the world calls for global collaboration and decisive financing, Financ Develop, 58, 54

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Metadata

Authors
Nandi, A., Counts, N., Chen, S., Seligman, B., Tortorice, D., Vigo, D., & Bloom, D. E.
Affiliations
  • Population Council (US)
  • Albert Einstein College of Medicine (US)
  • Heidelberg University (DE)
  • University of California, Los Angeles (US)
  • College of the Holy Cross (US)
  • University of British Columbia (CA)
  • Harvard University (US)
Corresponding author
Nandi, Arindam
ORCID
Venue
eClinicalMedicine
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2022-09
Volume
51
Pages
101580
ISSN
2589-5370 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101580
PMC
PMC9310134
OpenAlex
W4286696753
Cited by
402
References
38
Citations by year
2026: 91 · 2025: 166 · 2024: 95 · 2023: 45 · 2022: 5
FWCI
50.68
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • EClinicalMedicine (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders
  • Pfizer
  • Merck
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
  • Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience › Alzheimer's disease research and treatments
Keywords
Alzheimer's disease and related dementias, economic burden, value of a statistical life, disability-adjusted life years, population aging, low- and middle-income countries, health disparities, future projections, willingness to pay, global burden of disease

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