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Are the Framingham and PROCAM coronary heart disease risk functions applicable to different European populations? The PRIME Study

Empana, J·2003·European Heart Journal

DOI 10.1016/j.ehj.2003.09.002

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Abstract

AIMS: To assess whether the Framingham and PROCAM risk functions were applicable to men in Belfast and France. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed an external validation study within the PRIME (Prospective Epidemiological Study of Myocardial Infarction) cohort study. It comprised men recruited in Belfast (2399) and France (7359) who were aged 50 to 59 years, free of CHD at baseline (1991 to 1993) and followed over 5 years for CHD events (coronary death, myocardial infarction, angina pectoris). We compared the relative risks of CHD associated with the classic risk factors in PRIME with those in Framingham and PROCAM cohorts. We then compared the number of predicted and observed 5-year CHD events (calibration). Finally, we estimated the ability of the risk functions to separate high risk from low risk subjects (discrimination). The relative risk of CHD calculated for the various factors in the PRIME population were not statistically different from those published in the Framingham and PROCAM risk functions. The number of CHD events predicted by these risk functions however clearly overestimated those observed in Belfast and France. The two risk functions had a similar ability to separate high risk from low risk subjects in Belfast and France (c-statistic range: 0.61-0.68). CONCLUSION: The Framingham and PROCAM risk functions should not be used to estimate the absolute CHD risk of middle-aged men in Belfast and France without any CHD history because of a clear overestimation. Specific population risk functions are needed.

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Authors: Empana, J.
Affiliations: Inserm (FR)
Corresponding author: Empana, J
ORCID: Empana, J
Venue: European Heart Journal
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published: 2003-11
Volume: 24
Issue: 21
Pages: 1903-1911
ISSN: 0195-668X (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1016/j.ehj.2003.09.002
OpenAlex: W2087942162
Cited by: 263
References: 25
Citations by year: 2026: 2 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 12 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 12 · 2012: 12
FWCI: 19.09
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: European Heart Journal (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders: Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale
Northern Ireland Chest Heart and Stroke
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Health Promotion and Cardiovascular Prevention
Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Health and Risk Factors
Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Lipoproteins and Cardiovascular Health
Keywords: coronary heart disease risk prediction, Framingham risk equation, external validation, PRIME study, middle-aged men, discrimination (statistics), Belfast, France
MeSH terms: Adult, Aged, Angina Pectoris, Coronary Disease, France, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Myocardial Infarction, Northern Ireland, Predictive Value of Tests, Prognosis, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Sensitivity and Specificity, Cohort Studies, Proportional Hazards Models, Risk Assessment

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Are the Framingham and PROCAM coronary heart disease risk functions applicable to different European populations? The PRIME Study

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