Population attributable risk of aflatoxin-related liver cancer: Systematic review and meta-analysis
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Over 4 billion people worldwide are exposed to dietary aflatoxins, which cause liver cancer (hepatocellular carcinoma, HCC) in humans. However, the population attributable risk (PAR) of aflatoxin-related HCC remains unclear. METHODS: In our systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological studies, summary odds ratios (ORs) of aflatoxin-related HCC with 95% confidence intervals were calculated in HBV+ and HBV- individuals, as well as the general population. We calculated the PAR of aflatoxin-related HCC for each study as well as the combined studies, accounting for HBV status. RESULTS: Seventeen studies with 1680 HCC cases and 3052 controls were identified from 479 articles. All eligible studies were conducted in China, Taiwan, or sub-Saharan Africa. The PAR of aflatoxin-related HCC was estimated at 17% (14-19%) overall, and higher in HBV+ (21%) than HBV- (8.8%) populations. If the one study that contributed most to heterogeneity in the analysis is excluded, the summarised OR of HCC with 95% CI is 73.0 (36.0-148.3) from the combined effects of aflatoxin and HBV, 11.3 (6.75-18.9) from HBV only and 6.37 (3.74-10.86) from aflatoxin only. The PAR of aflatoxin-related HCC increases to 23% (21-24%). The PAR has decreased over time in certain Taiwanese and Chinese populations. CONCLUSIONS: In high exposure areas, aflatoxin multiplicatively interacts with HBV to induce HCC; reducing aflatoxin exposure to non-detectable levels could reduce HCC cases in high-risk areas by about 23%. The decreasing PAR of aflatoxin-related HCC reflects the benefits of public health interventions to reduce aflatoxin and HBV.
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Extrapolating to other regions, aflatoxins amount to 127,330 cases and 1.6 million DALYs.
“Extrapolating to other regions, this amounts to 127,330 cases and 1.6 million DALYs.”
From Food Safety in Low and Middle Income Countries (2015) · cites this paper as [55]
The Discussion (page unavailable) extrapolates aflatoxin-attributable liver cancer to regions beyond Africa and Asia, estimating 105,000–142,000 potentially preventable cases annually; 127,330 falls within that range and equals 17% of the paper’s worldwide case estimate. The paper does not provide the claimed 1.6 million DALYs, and it cautions that its attributable-risk estimate may not apply to regions with much lower aflatoxin exposure. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredA second study suggested aflatoxins were responsible for 17% of hepato-cellular carcinoma or 88,400 cases (72,800-98,000) equivalent to 1.1 million DALYs.
“A second study by the same team based on literature from high aflatoxin areas (China and Sub-Saharan Africa) suggested aflatoxins were responsible for 17% of hepato-cellular carcinoma or 88,400 cases (72,800–98,000) equivalent to 1.1 million DALYs [55].”
From Food Safety in Low and Middle Income Countries (2015) · cites this paper as [55]
The Discussion (page not specified) estimates that aflatoxin accounts for 17% of HCC in the studied populations and projects 72,800–98,800 preventable cases annually across China, southeastern Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. The cited sentence’s 88,400 cases is consistent with 17% of the paper’s roughly 520,000 annual cases, but its upper bound says 98,000 rather than 98,800. Our copy does not report the claimed 1.1 million DALYs. (LLM, conf=0.90)
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- Authors
- Liu, Y., Chang, C.-C. H., Marsh, G. M., & Wu, F.
- Affiliations
- University of Pittsburgh (US)
- Corresponding author
- Wu, Felicia
- Venue
- European Journal of Cancer
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2012-09
- Volume
- 48
- Issue
- 14
- Pages
- 2125-2136
- ISSN
- 0959-8049 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3374897
- OpenAlex
- W1978322476
- Cited by
- 372
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 22 · 2025: 42 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 30 · 2022: 35 · 2021: 28 · 2020: 22 · 2019: 26 · 2018: 20 · 2017: 29 · 2016: 24 · 2015: 24 · 2014: 16 · 2013: 23 · 2012: 5
- FWCI
- 2.32
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- European Journal of Cancer (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Cancer Institute (R01CA153073)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Plant Science › Mycotoxins in Agriculture and Food
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Hepatology › Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treatment and Prognosis
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Hepatitis B Virus Studies
- Keywords
- aflatoxins, hepatocellular carcinoma, population attributable risk, hepatitis B virus, dietary exposure, cancer prevention, public health interventions
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aflatoxins, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, China, Female, Food Contamination, Hepatitis B, Hepatitis B Surface Antigens, Carcinoma, Hepatocellular, Humans, Liver Neoplasms, Male, Middle Aged, Risk Factors, Taiwan, Biomarkers, Odds Ratio, Case-Control Studies, Africa South of the Sahara, Risk Assessment, Young Adult
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