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Cited by 71Forecasting Techniques and ApplicationsDecision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsSports Analytics and Performance

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Do ‘big losses’ in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts’ behaviour?

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Petropoulos, Fotios, Fildes, Robert, Goodwin, Paul·2016·European Journal of Operational Research
DOI 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.06.002
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Abstract

The behaviour of poker players and sports gamblers has been shown to change after winning or losing a significant amount of money on a single hand. In this paper, we explore whether there are changes in experts’ behaviour when performing judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts and, in particular, examine the impact of ‘big losses’. We define a big loss as a judgmental adjustment that significantly decreases the forecasting accuracy compared to the baseline statistical forecast. In essence, big losses are directly linked with wrong direction or highly overshooting judgmental overrides. Using relevant behavioural theories, we empirically examine the effect of such big losses on subsequent judgmental adjustments exploiting a large multinational data set containing statistical forecasts of demand for pharmaceutical products, expert adjustments and actual sales. We then discuss the implications of our findings for the effective design of forecasting support systems, focusing on the aspects of guidance and restrictiveness.

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Metadata

Authors
Petropoulos, F., Fildes, R., & Goodwin, P.
Affiliations
  • Cardiff University (GB)
  • Lancaster University (GB)
  • University of Bath (GB)
Corresponding author
Petropoulos, Fotios
ORCID
Venue
European Journal of Operational Research
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2016-03
Volume
249
Issue
3
Pages
842-852
ISSN
0377-2217 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.ejor.2015.06.002
OpenAlex
W1666631020
Cited by
71
References
68
Citations by year
2026: 3 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 10 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 2
FWCI
7.08
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • European Journal of Operational Research (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • ORCA Online Research @Cardiff (Cardiff University) (acceptedVersion)
  • Lancaster EPrints (Lancaster University) (submittedVersion)
  • The University of Bath Online Publications Store (The University of Bath) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Sports Analytics and Performance
Keywords
judgmental forecasting, forecast accuracy, pharmaceutical demand forecasting, forecasting support systems

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