Optimising renewable generation configurations of off-grid green ammonia production systems considering Haber-Bosch flexibility
Open accessAbstract
Green ammonia has received increasing interest for its potential as an energy carrier in the international trade of renewable power. This paper considers the factors that contribute to producing cost-competitive green ammonia from an exporter’s perspective. These factors include renewable resource quality across potential sites, operating modes for off-grid plants, and seasonal complementarity with trade buyers. The study applies a mixed-integer programming model and uses Australia as a case study because of its excellent solar and wind resources, and the potential for synergy between Southern Hemisphere supply and Northern Hemisphere demand. Although renewable resources are unevenly distributed across Australia and present distinct diurnal and seasonal variability, modelling shows that most of the pre-identified hydrogen hubs in each state and territory of Australia can produce cost-competitive green ammonia providing the electrolysis and Haber-Bosch processes are partially flexible to cope with the variability of renewables. Flexible operation reduces energy curtailment and leads to lower storage capacity requirements using batteries or hydrogen storage, which would otherwise increase system costs. In addition, an optimised combination of wind and solar can reduce the magnitude of storage required. Providing that a partially flexible Haber Bosch plant is commercially available, the modelling shows a levelised cost of ammonia (LCOA) of AU$756/tonne and AU$659/tonne in 2025 and 2030, respectively. Based on these results, green ammonia would be cost-competitive with grey ammonia in 2030, given a feedstock natural gas price higher than AU$14/MBtu. For green ammonia to be cost-competitive with grey ammonia, assuming a lower gas price of AU$6/MBtu, a carbon price would need to be in place of at least AU$123/tonne. Given that there is a greater demand for energy in winter concurrent with lower solar power production, there may be opportunities for solar-based Southern Hemisphere suppliers to supply the major industrial regions, most of which are located in the Northern Hemisphere.
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Production of e-Fuels necessitates monumental build-out of new infrastructure for renewable electricity generation, potentially large-scale CO2 capture facilities and pipeline networks, and advanced electrolyzer plants.
“Beyond the fuel itself, the production of e-Fuels necessitates a monumental build-out of new infrastructure for renewable electricity generation [25,382] (far exceeding current capacities), potentially large-scale CO 2 capture facilities and pipeline networks, and advanced electrolyzer plants [19,66].”
From Biofuels, E-Fuels, and Waste-Derived Fuels: Advances, Challenges, and Future Directions (2025) · cites this paper as [66]
The Introduction and Background (p. 6) says replacing current fossil-fuel ammonia would require 1,750 TWh of renewable electricity—about seven times Australia’s current annual electricity generation. The Results (p. 19) also quantify substantial wind and solar capacity for one green-ammonia replacement scenario. These passages support a major renewable-generation build-out for green ammonia, but do not establish the claim for e-fuels generally. The CO2-capture and pipeline portion has different citations in the citing sentence. (LLM, conf=0.84)
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- Authors
- Wang, C., Walsh, S. D. C., Longden, T., Palmer, G., Lutalo, I., & Dargaville, R.
- Affiliations
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- Monash University (AU)
- Australian National University (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Wang, Changlong
- Venue
- Energy Conversion and Management
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2023-03
- Volume
- 280
- Pages
- 116790
- ISSN
- 0196-8904 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4321381945
- Cited by
- 140
- References
- 37
- Citations by year
- 2026: 48 · 2025: 48 · 2024: 30 · 2023: 14
- FWCI
- 6.45
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Energy Conversion and Management (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- EarthArXiv (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Monash University
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Energy Engineering and Power Technology › Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Chemical Engineering › Catalysis › Ammonia Synthesis and Nitrogen Reduction
- Keywords
- green ammonia, renewable energy integration, electrolysis, hydrogen hubs, energy storage requirements, seasonal and diurnal variability, energy curtailment, carbon pricing, Australia
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