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What will China's carbon emission trading market affect with only electricity sector involvement? A CGE based study
Abstract
On December 29, 2017, China's Carbon Trading Scheme (ETS) was officially launched, and it may be the largest emission trading platform in the world. This paper establishes 5 counter-measured scenarios based on the recently launched China's national ETS market and constructs a dynamic recursive Computable General Equilibrium model to study the impact of national ETS on the economy, energy, and environment. We find that the national ETS will have a negative impact on GDP by 0.19%–1.44%. The national ETS can significantly increase the price of electricity, however, the increase in the prices of other commodities will be much lower than that of electricity. As long as the mechanism of the ETS market remains unchanged, emission reduction per year will increase linearly. Economic output and CO2 emission are sensitive to Annual Decline factor (ADF). This paper argues that China's national ETS market is an effective tool to reduce CO2 emission, and we suggest that ADF could be 0.5% when allocating carbon allowance for the electricity sector. This could balance economic output and CO2 reduction. Also, it is easy to achieve the goal of “double control” (total amount and intensity) in China.
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Citations
Cites
Mechanisms for linking emissions trading schemes
MEHLING, M., & HAITES, E. (2009) · Climate Policy · doi:10.3763/cpol.2008.0524 · Cited by 89
EU-ETS Phase IV: allowance prices, design choices and the market stability reserve
Perino, G., & Willner, M. (2017) · Climate Policy · doi:10.1080/14693062.2017.1360173 · Cited by 84
Cited by
Evaluation of effectiveness of China's carbon emissions trading scheme in carbon mitigation
Gao, Y., Li, M., Xue, J., & Liu, Y. (2020) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104872 · Cited by 398
Shi, B., Li, N., Gao, Q., & Li, G. (2022) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115650 · Cited by 386
Li, Z., Pan, Y., Yang, W., Ma, J., & Zhou, M. (2021) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105426 · Cited by 266
China's carbon emissions trading and stock returns
Wen, F., Wu, N., & Gong, X. (2020) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104627 · Cited by 264
Rethinking the choice of carbon tax and carbon trading in China
Jia, Z., & Lin, B. (2020) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120187 · Cited by 257
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Metadata
- Authors
- Lin, B., & Jia, Z.
- Venue
- Energy Economics
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2019-02
- Volume
- 78
- Pages
- 301-311
- ISSN
- 0140-9883 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2902424050
- Cited by
- 244
- References
- 2
- FWCI
- 23.32
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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- Lin, B., & Jia, Z. (2019). What will China's carbon emission trading market affect with only electricity sector involvement? A CGE based study. Energy Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.11.030
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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