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Thermal load forecasting in district heating networks using deep learning and advanced feature selection methods
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“ANN [14], RNN [25], DNN [26], and CNN [27] are applied to the prediction model of MPC.”
From Energy-Saving Control Method for Factory Mushroom Room Air Conditioning Based on MPC (2023) · cites this paper as [26]
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“Insometime-consumedforecastingtasks,automated featureselectionusuallygivesacomputationallyefficientmodel with higher accuracy than the arbitrarily chosen features [27].”
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“While many of the works in the literature predicted electricity consumption of buildings, the study [156] extended deep learning methods to the field of heat load forecasting.”
BackgroundTan, Z., De, G., Li, M., Lin, H., Yang, S., Huang, L., & Tan, Q. (2019) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119252 · Cited by 253
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MethodReview of data-driven energy modelling techniques for building retrofit
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A Review of Deep Learning Techniques for Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings
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Yang, M., Lim, M. K., Qu, Y., Li, X., & Ni, D. (2022) · Expert Systems with Applications · doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2022.118873 · Cited by 94
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Deep learning for multi-scale smart energy forecasting
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BackgroundMachine-learning-based multi-step heat demand forecasting in a district heating system
Potočnik, P., Škerl, P., & Govekar, E. (2020) · Energy and Buildings · doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2020.110673 · Cited by 63
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“Compared to arbitrarily chosen features, it usually provides a computationally efficient model in time-consuming forecasting tasks (Suryanarayana et al. 2018).”
BackgroundImproved day ahead heating demand forecasting by online correction methods
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Robust MPC with data-driven demand forecasting for frequency regulation with heat pumps
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MethodOptimal Planning of Future District Heating Systems—A Review
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A diagnostic approach for fault detection and identification in district heating networks
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Enabling smart control by optimally managing the State of Charge of district heating networks
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Research on thermal load prediction of district heating station based on transfer learning
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“As there is no need to estimate model performance, the main advantage of these methods is their speed (Suryanarayana et al. 2018).”
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Adaptive thermal load prediction in residential buildings using artificial neural networks
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A Novel Hybrid Spatial-Temporal Attention-LSTM Model for Heat Load Prediction
Lin, T., Pan, Y., Xue, G., Song, J., & Qi, C. (2020) · IEEE Access · doi:10.1109/access.2020.3017516 · Cited by 34
“In Ref [10], DNN is used for heat load prediction.”
MethodShort-term industrial load forecasting based on error correction and hybrid ensemble learning
Fan, C., Nie, S., Xiao, L., Yi, L., & Li, G. (2024) · Energy and Buildings · doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2024.114261 · Cited by 29
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The new hybrid approaches to forecasting short-term electricity load
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A Novel Combined Model for Heat Load Prediction in District Heating Systems
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Testing and performance evaluation of the STORM controller in two demonstration sites
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“Finally, in [33] the predictions of three energy consumption linear models are compared on two Swedish cities.”
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“An important work was published by Suryanarayana et al. [26], who compared different linear, ridge and lasso regression in addition to automatic feature selection and a quite simple FFNN with two hidden layers for thermal load forecasting in heating networks.”
BackgroundAdaptive Feature Selection for Probabilistic Multi-Energy Load Forecasting
Ge, Y., Zhang, W., Liu, G., Li, Z., & Li, H. (2023) · IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications · doi:10.1109/tia.2023.3344540 · Cited by 23
“[22] investigated feature selection method for heating load forecasting.”
A data-driven model for thermodynamic properties of a steam generator under cycling operation
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Systematic review on uncertainty quantification in machine learning-based building energy modeling
Xu, X., Hu, Y., Atamturktur, S., Chen, L., & Wang, J. (2025) · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.rser.2025.115817 · Cited by 21
Bayesian Optimization-Based LSTM for Short-Term Heating Load Forecasting
Li, B., Shao, Y., Lian, Y., Li, P., & Lei, Q. (2023) · Energies · doi:10.3390/en16176234 · Cited by 20
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“Apart from the already cited STORM project [33], other interesting outputs are as follows: Figure 9.”
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“A number of different architectures of neural networks have been evaluated for predicting thermal behavior in supercapacitors, such as standard deep neural networks (DNN) [27, 28], deep recurrent neural networks (RNN) [29], conditional generative adversarial neural networks (cGAN) [30], and deep feedforward neural net…”
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“[13] selected the last 7 days of heat load and the next 24 h temperature prediction results as the heat load forecasting input variables.”
BackgroundWang, Y., Wang, H., Meng, X., Dong, H., Chen, X., Xiang, H., & Xing, J. (2023) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2023.129387 · Cited by 19
Heating Demand Forecasting with Multiple Regression: Model Setup and Case Study
Baltputnis, K., Petrichenko, R., & Sobolevsky, D. (2018) · IEEE Workshop on Advances in Information, Electronic and Electrical Engineering (AIEEE) · doi:10.1109/aieee.2018.8592144 · Cited by 17
A Novel Hybrid Deep Learning Model for Complex Systems: A Case of Train Delay Prediction
Wang, D., Guo, J., & Zhang, C. (2024) · Advances in Civil Engineering · doi:10.1155/2024/8163062 · Cited by 18
A Parallel Electrical Optimized Load Forecasting Method Based on Quasi-Recurrent Neural Network
Yang, C., Wang, W., Zhang, X., Guo, Q., Zhu, T., & Ai, Q. (2021) · IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science · doi:10.1088/1755-1315/696/1/012040 · Cited by 16
“Typical methods include Deep Neural Network (DNN)[6], Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), etc.”
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Exploring the impact of data uncertainty on the performance of a demand response program
Azari, D., Torbaghan, S. S., Cappon, H. J., Keesman, K. J., Rijnaarts, H. H. M., & Gibescu, M. (2019) · Sustainable Energy Grids and Networks · doi:10.1016/j.segan.2019.100262 · Cited by 14
Heat demand prediction: A real-life data model vs simulated data model comparison
Naik, K., & Ianakiev, A. (2021) · Energy Reports · doi:10.1016/j.egyr.2021.08.093 · Cited by 13
“Suryanarayana et al. investigated in [12] heat prediction investigated Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, and Feature Fusion Long Short-Term Memory (FFLSTM).”
MethodTrabert, U., Pag, F., Orozaliev, J., Jordan, U., & Vajen, K. (2024) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2024.131690 · Cited by 15
Heating energy consumption prediction based on improved GA-BP neural network model
Jie, P., Zhou, Y. J., Zhang, Z., & Wei, F. (2025) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2025.136392 · Cited by 12
Perspectives on energy efficiency and smart energy systems from the 5th SESAAU2019 conference
Nielsen, T. B., Lund, H., Østergaard, P. A., Duić, N., & Mathiesen, B. V. (2020) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2020.119260 · Cited by 12
Forecasting of Heat Production in Combined Heat and Power Plants Using Generalized Additive Models
Bujalski, M., & Madejski, P. (2021) · Energies · doi:10.3390/en14082331 · Cited by 12
“In recent years, there has been a clear increase in interest in the use of machine learning methods, such as support vector machines (SVM) [17], random forest [18], deep learning [19] and gradient boosting [20].”
BackgroundA Novel Hybrid Deep Neural Network Model to Predict the Refrigerant Charge Amount of Heat Pumps
Hwang, J. K., Duhirwe, P. N., Yun, G. Y., Lee, S., Seo, H., Kim, I., & Santamouris, M. (2020) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su12072914 · Cited by 13
“L1 and L2 enforce penalties and modify the loss function by minimizing them [44,45].”
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Kondaiah, V. Y., & Saravanan, B. (2022) · Energies · doi:10.3390/en15145299 · Cited by 11
Data-driven analysis and prediction of indoor characteristic temperature in district heating systems
Wang, Y., Li, Z., Liu, J., Pei, M., Zhao, Y., & Lu, X. (2023) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2023.129023 · Cited by 11
Sleiman, A., & Su, W. (2024) · Energies · doi:10.3390/en17061433 · Cited by 12
“Artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be used to create models for complex nonlinear processes using input variables that are correlated, without making any assumptions about the underlying process [15]; thus, these models were explored for solar power forecasting and are applied in [16–18].”
MethodLoad Forecasting Method Based on Improved Deep Learning in Cloud Computing Environment
Zhang, K., Guo, W., Feng, J., & Liu, M. (2021) · Scientific Programming · doi:10.1155/2021/3250732 · Cited by 11
An exploration of shared heat storage systems in the greenhouse horticulture industry
Ridder, F. D., van Roy, J., de Schutter, B., & Mazairac, W. (2021) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2021.121425 · Cited by 10
Benefits of thermal load forecasts in balancing load fluctuations through thermal storage
Ghilardi, A., Frate, G. F., Tucci, M., Bravi, M., Leo, R., & Ferrari, L. (2023) · Journal of Energy Storage · doi:10.1016/j.est.2023.107929 · Cited by 10
Real-time grid optimisation through digitalisation – results of the STORM project
Johansson, C., Vanhoudt, D., Brage, J., & Geysen, D. (2018) · Energy Procedia · doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2018.08.189 · Cited by 10
Self-citationForecasting Heating Consumption in Buildings: A Scalable Full-Stack Distributed Engine
Acquaviva, A., Apiletti, D., Attanasio, A., Baralis, E., Bottaccioli, L., Cerquitelli, T., Chiusano, S., Macii, E., & Patti, E. (2019) · Electronics · doi:10.3390/electronics8050491 · Cited by 10
“[41] investigate the performance of three different linear models to forecast energy consumption: (i) linear, (ii) ridge, and (iii) lasso regression.”
BackgroundTemporal Feature Selection for Multi-Step Ahead Reheater Temperature Prediction
Gui, N., Lou, J., Qiu, Z., & Gui, W. (2019) · Processes · doi:10.3390/pr7070473 · Cited by 9
“The selection of the most related features from a large variety of sensors is important for the realization of effective control [8].”
BackgroundCombining Deep Neural Network and Fourier Series for Tourist Arrivals Forecasting
Shabri, A., Samsudin, R., & Yusoff, Y. B. (2020) · IOP Conference Series Materials Science and Engineering · doi:10.1088/1757-899x/864/1/012094 · Cited by 9
Metadata
- Authors
- Suryanarayana, G., Lago, J., Geysen, D., Aleksiejuk, P., & Johansson, C.
- Affiliations
- Flemish Institute for Technological Research (BE)
- Warsaw University of Technology (PL)
- Corresponding author
- Suryanarayana, Gowri
- Venue
- Energy
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2018-08
- Volume
- 157
- Pages
- 141-149
- ISSN
- 0360-5442 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2804243520
- Cited by
- 155
- References
- 47
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 16 · 2022: 24 · 2021: 29 · 2020: 29 · 2019: 18 · 2018: 6
- FWCI
- 7.85
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Energy (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Research Repository (Delft University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- European Union's Horizon 2020 (649743)
- Marie Skodowska-Curie (675318)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Energy Load and Power Forecasting
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Building and Construction › Building Energy and Comfort Optimization
- Keywords
- heat load forecasting, district heating networks, feature selection, deep learning, ridge regression, LASSO, linear regression, nonlinear dependencies, day-ahead forecasting, heat load
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