The DOI matches its Crossref record; 42 of the 42 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Future growth patterns of world regions – A GDP scenario approach
Open accessAbstract
Global GDP projections for the 21st century are needed for the exploration of long-term global environmental problems, in particular climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions as well as climate change mitigation and adaption capacities strongly depend on growth of per capita income. However, long-term economic projections are highly uncertain. This paper provides five new long-term economic scenarios as part of the newly developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) which represent a set of widely diverging narratives. A method of GDP scenario building is presented that is based on assumptions about technological progress, and human and physical capital formation as major drivers of long-term GDP per capita growth. The impact of these drivers differs significantly between different shared socio-economic pathways and is traced back to the underlying narratives and the associated population and education scenarios. In a highly fragmented world, technological and knowledge spillovers are low. Hence, the growth impact of technological progress and human capital is comparatively low, and per capita income diverges between world regions. These factors play a much larger role in globalization scenarios, leading to higher economic growth and stronger convergence between world regions. At the global average, per capita GDP is projected to grow annually in a range between 1.0% (SSP3) and 2.8% (SSP5) from 2010 to 2100. While this covers a large portion of variety in future global economic growth projections, plausible lower and higher growth projections may still be conceivable. The GDP projections are put into the context of historic patterns of economic growth (stylized facts), and their sensitivity to key assumptions is explored.
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Cited by
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009 · Cited by 6,607
Self-citationO’Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D. S., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004 · Cited by 3,359
Self-citationKC, S., & Lutz, W. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.004 · Cited by 1,337
Maisel, F., Neef, C., Marscheider-Weidemann, F., & Nissen, N. F. (2023) · Resources, Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2023.106920 · Cited by 405
Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply
Fukase, E., & Martin, W. (2020) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104954 · Cited by 384
Metadata
- Authors
- Leimbach, M., Kriegler, E., Roming, N., & Schwanitz, J.
- Venue
- Global Environmental Change
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2017-01
- Volume
- 42
- Pages
- 215-225
- ISSN
- 0959-3780 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2009028960
- Cited by
- 289
- References
- 42
- FWCI
- 39.24
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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