A forecast on future raw material demand and recycling potential of lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles
Open accessAbstract
The market for electromobility has grown constantly in the last years. To ensure a future supply of raw materials for the production of new batteries for electric vehicles, it is essential to estimate the future demand for battery metals. This study focuses on the future demand for electric vehicle battery cathode raw materials lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese by considering different technology and growth scenarios. The results show that in 2040 the future material demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel for Lithium-Ion Batteries in electric vehicles exceeds current raw material production. Depending on the growth and technology scenario, the future demand for lithium and cobalt exceeds today's production by up to 8 times in 2040. Nickel exceeds today's production in one scenario. For manganese, future demand in 2040 remains far below today's production. The recycling potential for lithium and nickel is more than half the raw material demand for Lithium-Ion Batteries in 2040. For cobalt, the recycling potential even exceeds the raw material demand in 2040. In conclusion, it remains a challenge for the industry to massively scale up resource production and focus on the recycling of battery metals in the future to meet the increasing consumption of electromobility.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Li is the metal seeing the highest growth rates of metals required for low-carbon technologies.
“Li is the metal seeing the highest growth rates of metals required for low-carbon technologies.2,3”
From Current and Future Impacts of Lithium Carbonate from Brines: A Global Regionalized Life Cycle Assessment Model (2025) · cites this paper as [3]
The consumption of Li for battery production has significantly increased in recent years due to its extensive application in the growing market of electric vehicles and portable electronics.
“The consumption of Li for battery production has significantly increased in recent years due to its extensive application in the growing market of electric vehicles and portable electronics (Maisel et al 2023).”
From Environmental impacts of lithium supply chains from Australia to China (2024) · cites this paper as Maisel et al 2023
Cites
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009 · Cited by 6,607 · see citing works
Thermal runaway mechanism of lithium ion battery for electric vehicles: A review
Feng, X., Ouyang, M., Liu, X., Lu, L., Xia, Y., & He, X. (2017) · Energy storage materials · doi:10.1016/j.ensm.2017.05.013 · Cited by 4,251 · see citing works
The lithium-ion battery: State of the art and future perspectives
Zubi, G., Dufo‐López, R., Carvalho, M., & Paşaoğlu, G. (2018) · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.rser.2018.03.002 · Cited by 2,574 · see citing works
Automotive Li-Ion Batteries: Current Status and Future Perspectives
Ding, Y., Cano, Z. P., Yu, A., Lu, J. B., & Chen, Z. (2018) · Electrochemical Energy Reviews · doi:10.1007/s41918-018-0022-z · Cited by 1,374 · see citing works
KC, S., & Lutz, W. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.004 · Cited by 1,337 · see citing works
Future material demand for automotive lithium-based batteries
Xu, C., Dai, Q., Gaines, L., Hu, M., Tukker, A., & Steubing, B. (2020) · Communications Materials · doi:10.1038/s43246-020-00095-x · Cited by 898 · see citing works
Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Dellink, R., Chateau, J., Lanzi, E., & Magné, B. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.004 · Cited by 893 · see citing works
Neumann, J., Petranikova, M., Meeus, M., Gamarra, J. D., Younesi, R., Winter, M., & Nowak, S. (2022) · Advanced Energy Materials · doi:10.1002/aenm.202102917 · Cited by 805 · see citing works
Lithium-Ion Battery Recycling─Overview of Techniques and Trends
Baum, Z. J., Bird, R. E., Yu, X., & Ma, J. (2022) · ACS Energy Letters · doi:10.1021/acsenergylett.1c02602 · Cited by 747 · see citing works
Overview of batteries and battery management for electric vehicles
Liu, W., Placke, T., & Chau, K. T. (2022) · Energy Reports · doi:10.1016/j.egyr.2022.03.016 · Cited by 721 · see citing works
Review—Li-Rich Layered Oxide Cathodes for Next-Generation Li-Ion Batteries: Chances and Challenges
Rozier, P., & Tarascon, J. (2015) · Journal of The Electrochemical Society · doi:10.1149/2.0111514jes · Cited by 697 · see citing works
Anode materials for lithium-ion batteries: A review
Nzereogu, P. U., Omah, A. D., Ezema, F. I., Iwuoha, E. I., & Nwanya, A. C. (2022) · Applied Surface Science Advances · doi:10.1016/j.apsadv.2022.100233 · Cited by 689 · see citing works
Circular economy strategies for electric vehicle batteries reduce reliance on raw materials
Baars, J., Domenech, T., Bleischwitz, R., Melin, H. E., & Heidrich, O. (2020) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-020-00607-0 · Cited by 641 · see citing works
Global urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Jiang, L.-W., & O'Neill, B. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.03.008 · Cited by 590 · see citing works
A Perspective on the Sustainability of Cathode Materials used in Lithium‐Ion Batteries
Murdock, B. E., Toghill, K. E., & Tapia‐Ruiz, N. (2021) · Advanced Energy Materials · doi:10.1002/aenm.202102028 · Cited by 467 · see citing works
Mayyas, A. T., Steward, D., & Mann, M. (2018) · Sustainable materials and technologies · doi:10.1016/j.susmat.2018.e00087 · Cited by 424 · see citing works
Recycling of lithium iron phosphate batteries: Status, technologies, challenges, and prospects
Wang, M., Liu, K., Dutta, S., Alessi, D. S., Rinklebe, J., Ok, Y. S., & Tsang, D. C. W. (2022) · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.rser.2022.112515 · Cited by 361 · see citing works
Industrial Recycling of Lithium-Ion Batteries—A Critical Review of Metallurgical Process Routes
Brückner, L., Frank, J., & Elwert, T. (2020) · Metals · doi:10.3390/met10081107 · Cited by 336 · see citing works
Income projections for climate change research: A framework based on human capital dynamics
Cuaresma, J. C. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.02.012 · Cited by 300 · see citing works
Future growth patterns of world regions – A GDP scenario approach
Leimbach, M., Kriegler, E., Roming, N., & Schwanitz, J. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.02.005 · Cited by 286 · see citing works
Windisch, S., Gerold, E., Nigl, T., Jandric, A., Altendorfer, M., Rutrecht, B., Scherhaufer, S., Raupenstrauch, H., Pomberger, R., Antrekowitsch, H., et al. (2021) · Waste Management · doi:10.1016/j.wasman.2021.11.038 · Cited by 282 · see citing works
Challenges for sustainable lithium supply: A critical review
Alessia, A., Alessandro, B., Maria, V.-G., Carlos, V.-A., & Francesca, B. (2021) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.126954 · Cited by 235 · see citing works
Thermal safety of lithium-ion batteries with various cathode materials: A numerical study
Peng, P., & Jiang, F. (2016) · International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer · doi:10.1016/j.ijheatmasstransfer.2016.07.088 · Cited by 219 · see citing works
Understanding the future of lithium: part 1, resource model
Ambrose, H., & Kendall, A. (2020) · Journal of Industrial Ecology · doi:10.1111/jiec.12949 · Cited by 213 · see citing works
Perspectives on Cobalt Supply through 2030 in the Face of Changing Demand
Fu, X., Beatty, D. N., Gaustad, G. G., Ceder, G., Roth, R., Kirchain, R., Bustamante, M. L., Babbitt, C. W., & Olivetti, E. (2020) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.9b04975 · Cited by 203 · see citing works
Circular economy of Li Batteries: Technologies and trends
Ali, H. M., Khan, H. A., & PECHT, M. G. (2021) · Journal of Energy Storage · doi:10.1016/j.est.2021.102690 · Cited by 190 · see citing works
Economics and Challenges of Li-Ion Battery Recycling from End-of-Life Vehicles
Steward, D., Mayyas, A. T., & Mann, M. (2019) · Procedia Manufacturing · doi:10.1016/j.promfg.2019.04.033 · Cited by 171 · see citing works
Liu, W., Liu, W., Li, X., Liu, Y., Ogunmoroti, A., Li, M., Bi, M., & Cui, Z. (2020) · Resources Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105122 · Cited by 119 · see citing works
Englberger, S., Hesse, H. C., Kucevic, D., & Jossen, A. (2019) · Energies · doi:10.3390/en12050955 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Matos, C. T. D., Mathieux, F., Ciacci, L., Lundhaug, M. C., León, M. F. G., Müller, D. B., Dewulf, J. P., Konstantinos, G., & Huisman, J. (2022) · Journal of Industrial Ecology · doi:10.1111/jiec.13244 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
TREATMENT OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE BATTERY WASTE IN CHINA: A REVIEW OF EXISTING POLICIES
Li, W., Yang, M., Long, R., Mamaril, K., & Chi, Y. (2021) · Journal of Environmental Engineering and Landscape Management · doi:10.3846/jeelm.2021.14220 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Mousavinezhad, S., Nili, S., Fahimi, A., & Vahidi, E. (2024) · Resources, Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.107583 · Cited by 110 · see citing works
Carbon and water footprint of battery-grade lithium from brine and spodumene: A simulation-based LCA
Mas-Fons, A., Horta Arduin, R., Loubet, P., Pereira, T., Parvez, A. M., & Sonnemann, G. (2024) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.142108 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Schenker, V., & Pfister, S. (2025) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.4c12619 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
“2,3 − 6 This growth presents challenges, as increasing production at existing sites and opening sites will impose additional environmental burdens.”
Environmental impacts of lithium supply chains from Australia to China
Feng, Y., Wang, P., Li, W., Zhang, Q., Chen, W.-Q., & Feng, D. (2024) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad69ac · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Lithium Mining in the Salar de Atacama—Accounting Practices for Water Footprinting
Link, A., Marinova, S., Roche, L., Coroamă, V., Hinkers, L., Borchardt, D., & Finkbeiner, M. (2025) · Water · doi:10.3390/w17111670 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
- Authors
- Maisel, F., Neef, C., Marscheider-Weidemann, F., & Nissen, N. F.
- Affiliations
- Fraunhofer Institute for Reliability and Microintegration (DE)
- Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Maisel, Franziska
- Venue
- Resources, Conservation and Recycling
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2023-05
- Volume
- 192
- Pages
- 106920
- ISSN
- 0921-3449 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4321014811
- Cited by
- 405
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 120 · 2025: 149 · 2024: 105 · 2023: 31
- FWCI
- 39.86
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Resources Conservation and Recycling (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Fraunhofer-Publica (Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Mechanical Engineering › Extraction and Separation Processes
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Automotive Engineering › Advanced Battery Technologies Research
- Keywords
- lithium-ion batteries, electric vehicles, battery cathode materials, raw material demand forecasting, lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, battery recycling, resource supply, electric mobility, technology scenarios
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
