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The accuracy of intermittent demand estimates
Open accessAbstract
Intermittent demand appears sporadically, with some time periods showing no demand at all. In this paper, four forecasting methods, Simple Moving Average (SMA, 13 periods), Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Croston's method, and a new method (based on Croston's approach) recently developed by the authors, are compared on 3000 real intermittent demand data series from the automotive industry. The mean signed and relative geometric root-mean-square errors are shown to meet the theoretical and practical requirements of intermittent demand, as do the Percentage Better and Percentage Best summary statistics based on these measures. These measures are subsequently applied in a simulation experiment. The out-of-sample comparison results indicate superior performance of the new method. In addition, the results show that the mean signed error is not strongly scale dependent and the relative geometric root-mean-square error is a well-behaved accuracy measure for intermittent demand.
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Cited by
Botchkarev, A. (2019) · Interdisciplinary Journal of Information, Knowledge, and Management · doi:10.28945/4184 · Cited by 616
Supply chain forecasting: Theory, practice, their gap and the future
Syntetos, A. A., Babai, Z., Boylan, J. E., Kolassa, S., & Nikolopoulos, K. (2016) · European Journal of Operational Research · doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2015.11.010 · Cited by 328
Self-citationForecasting and operational research: a review
Fildes, R., Nikolopoulos, K., Crone, S. F., & Syntetos, A. A. (2008) · Journal of the Operational Research Society · doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602597 · Cited by 287
Self-citationUnconstraining methods for revenue management systems under small demand
Kourentzes, N., Li, D., & Strauss, A. K. (2019) · Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management · doi:10.1057/s41272-017-0117-x · Cited by 9
Metadata
- Authors
- Syntetos, A. A., & Boylan, J. E.
- Venue
- International Journal of Forecasting
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2005-04
- Volume
- 21
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 303-314
- ISSN
- 0169-2070 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2114733835
- Cited by
- 489
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 11.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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