The comparative accuracy of judgmental and model forecasts of American football games
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Forecasting the outcomes of sports matches against the spread has been elusive for both experts and models.
“Forecasting the outcomes of sports matches against the spread has been elusive for both experts and models [6, 36].”
From A statistical theory of optimal decision-making in sports betting (2023) · cites this paper as [36]
Cites
Testing Rationality in the Point Spread Betting Market
GANDAR, J., ZUBER, R., O'BRIEN, T., & RUSSO, B. (1988) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb02617.x · Cited by 181 · see citing works
Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games
Boulier, B. L., & Stekler, H. O. (2003) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/s0169-2070(01)00144-3 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Exploiting sports-betting market using machine learning
Hubáček, O., Šourek, G., & Železný, F. (2019) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.01.001 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Are betting returns a useful measure of accuracy in (sports) forecasting?
Wunderlich, F., & Memmert, D. (2020) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.08.009 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
A statistical theory of optimal decision-making in sports betting
Dmochowski, J. P. (2023) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0287601 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
- Authors
- Song, C., Boulier, B. L., & Stekler, H. O.
- Affiliations
- George Washington University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Stekler, Herman O.
- Venue
- International Journal of Forecasting
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2007-07
- Volume
- 23
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 405-413
- ISSN
- 0169-2070 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1978247385
- Cited by
- 49
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 2 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 1 · 2015: 4 · 2014: 4 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 8.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- International Journal of Forecasting (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- George Washington University
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Sports Analytics and Performance
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Orthopedics and Sports Medicine › Sports Performance and Training
- Keywords
- sports prediction, American football, expert opinion, statistical forecasting models, forecast accuracy comparison
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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