Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games
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Forecasting the outcomes of sports matches against the spread has been elusive for both experts and models.
“Forecasting the outcomes of sports matches against the spread has been elusive for both experts and models [6, 36].”
From A statistical theory of optimal decision-making in sports betting (2023) · cites this paper as [6]
Boulier and Stekler (2003) found that the betting market is the best for predicting winners compared to power rankings and media experts.
“Boulier and Stekler (2003) compare the predictive performance of power rankings and media experts to the betting market for NFL games and found that the betting market is the best for predicting winners.”
From Big ideas in sports analytics and statistical tools for their investigation (2023) · cites this paper as Boulier and Stekler (2003)
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- Authors
- Boulier, B. L., & Stekler, H. O.
- Affiliations
- George Washington University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Boulier, Bryan L.
- Venue
- International Journal of Forecasting
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2003-04
- Volume
- 19
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 257-270
- ISSN
- 0169-2070 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2092143264
- Cited by
- 120
- References
- 14
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 4 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 6.50
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- International Journal of Forecasting (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Sports Analytics and Performance
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Orthopedics and Sports Medicine › Sports Performance and Training
- Keywords
- National Football League, team ranking, betting markets, probit model, sports prediction, expert forecasts, bootstrapping
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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