The Illusion of predictability: A call to action
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Ord provides a simple demonstration of how standard regression procedures, applied without a priori analyses, can lead one astray.
“Ord (2012) provides a simple demonstration of how standard regression procedures, applied without a priori analyses, can lead one astray.”
From Illusions in Regression Analysis (2011) · cites this paper as Ord (2012)
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Illusions in regression analysis
Armstrong, J. S. (2012) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.02.001 · Cited by 327 · see citing works
Illusions in Regression Analysis
Armstrong, J. S. (2011) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1969740 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Soyer, E., & Hogarth, R. M. (2012) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.02.006 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Method of Machine Learning on the Basis of Discrete Orthogonal Polynomials of Chebyshev.
Пулеко, І. В., Kravchenko, S., Chumakevych, V., & Ptashnyk, V. (2020) · COLINS · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Econometrics and decision making: Effects of communication of results
Soyer, E. (2012) · LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas)
- Authors
- Ord, J. K.
- Affiliations
- Georgetown University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Ord, J. Keith
- ORCID
- Ord, J. Keith
- Venue
- International Journal of Forecasting
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2012-07
- Volume
- 28
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 717-718
- ISSN
- 0169-2070 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3124178580
- Cited by
- 5
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2020: 1 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 2.30
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- International Journal of Forecasting (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Market Dynamics and Volatility
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
- Keywords
- tail dependence, asymmetric dependence, time-varying dependence, industrial metals, agricultural commodities, energy commodities, 2008 financial crisis, extreme events
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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