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Limitations of Ejection Fraction for Prediction of Sudden Death Risk in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease
Open accessAbstract
Objectives We determined the contribution of multiple variables to predict arrhythmic death and total mortality risk in patients with coronary disease and left ventricular dysfunction. We then constructed an algorithm to predict risk of mortality and sudden death.Background Many factors in addition to ejection fraction (EF) influence the prognosis of patients with coronary disease. However, there are few tools to use this information to guide clinical decisions.Methods We evaluated the relationship between 25 variables and total mortality and arrhythmic death in 674 patients enrolled in the MUSTT (Multicenter Unsustained Tachycardia Trial) study that did not receive antiarrhythmic therapy. We then constructed risk-stratification algorithms to weight the prognostic impact of each variable on arrhythmic death and total mortality risk.Results The variables having the greatest prognostic impact in multivariable analysis were functional class, history of heart failure, nonsustained ventricular tachycardia not related to bypass surgery, EF, age, left ventricular conduction abnormalities, inducible sustained ventricular tachycardia, enrollment as an inpatient, and atrial fibrillation. The model demonstrates that patients whose only risk factor is EF < or =30% have a predicted 2-year arrhythmic death risk <5%.Conclusions Multiple variables influence arrhythmic death and total mortality risk. Patients with EF < or =30% but no other risk factor have low predicted mortality risk. Patients with EF >30% and other risk factors may have higher mortality and a higher risk of sudden death than some patients with EF < or =30%. Thus, risk of sudden death in patients with coronary disease depends on multiple variables in addition to EF.
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“in the modern era, the independent predictive value of NSVT is not established”
From 2017 ISHNE-HRS expert consensus statement on ambulatory ECG and external cardiac monitoring/telemetry (2017) · cites this paper as Buxton et al., 2007
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InfluentialSelf-citationVentricular Arrhythmia after Acute Myocardial Infarction: ‘The Perfect Storm’
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“A likely explanation is that many prominent risk factors for SCD, including heart failure, left ventricular systolic dysfunction, conduction disease, and inducible VT with programmed stimulation, are also associated with death from nonarrhythmic and noncardiovascular causes.(79) Consequently, even estimations of by ge…”
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“Electrophysiological study moderately predicts events in patients with ICDs implanted for nonsustained VT, prior MI, and an LVEF #40% (62), but is less predictive in those with lower LVEF (#30%) (63).”
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“These findings reinforce the limitations of using LVEF alone for prediction of sudden cardiac death.(17,18) Additional markers, such as inducibility of ventricular tachycardia or magnetic resonance imaging, to identify and quantify fibrosis may be useful and should be investigated.”
Self-citationSignal‐averaged electrocardiography: Past, present, and future
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“This development increases the need for more accurate identification of potential candidates for ICD therapy and supports emerging views, challenging the current use of LVEF as the main variable in primary SCD prevention.(23) Specifically, LVEF is subject to operator biases and depends on loading conditions and heart…”
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“For this report, variables were selected a priori from the ICD Registry that were felt to be necessary to describe and examine the characteristics and outcomes of patients receiving replacement ICD devices based on American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines for device-based therapy(5) as well…”
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Risk stratification for sudden death in patients with coronary artery disease
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“Therefore, the use of LVEF as an indicator for ICD implantation is far from ideal [2,6,7].”
BackgroundRisk Stratification for Sudden Cardiac Death After Myocardial Infarction
Waks, J. W., & Buxton, A. E. (2018) · Annual Review of Medicine · doi:10.1146/annurev-med-041316-090046 · Cited by 58
Self-citationPrediction of sudden arrhythmic death following acute myocardial infarction
Liew, R. (2010) · Heart · doi:10.1136/hrt.2010.194407 · Cited by 54
“However, it is becoming increasingly apparent that additional variables other than reduced LVEF may influence the risk of sudden cardiac death and that LVEF alone is insufficient in determining which patients are most likely to benefit from prophylactic ICD insertion.(5) Indeed, the majority of sudden deaths occur in…”
BackgroundPrediction of ventricular arrhythmias using cardiovascular magnetic resonance
Mavrogeni, S. I., Petrou, E., Kolovou, G., THEODORAKIS, G. N., & Iliodromitis, E. K. (2013) · European Heart Journal - Cardiovascular Imaging · doi:10.1093/ehjci/jes302 · Cited by 54
Cheng, A., Zhang, Y., Blasco‐Colmenares, E., Dalal, D., Butcher, B., Norgard, S., ELDADAH, Z. A., Ellenbogen, K. A., Dickfeld, T. M., SPRAGG, D. D., et al. (2014) · Circulation Arrhythmia and Electrophysiology · doi:10.1161/circep.113.001705 · Cited by 56
“The limited sensitivity and specificity of using the ejection fraction as the primary means for SCD risk stratification has resulted in many individuals receiving ICDs deriving little benefit and also failing to identify individuals with relatively preserved function but remain at high SCD risk.(27) In fact, the Table…”
BackgroundA Novel ECG-Index for Prediction of Ventricular Arrhythmias in Patients after Myocardial Infarction
Hetland, M., Haugaa, K. H., Sarvari, S. I., Erikssen, G., Kongsgaard, E., & Edvardsen, T. (2014) · Annals of Noninvasive Electrocardiology · doi:10.1111/anec.12152 · Cited by 53
Radionuclide imaging of cardiac autonomic innervation
Ji, S. Y., & Travin, M. I. (2010) · Journal of Nuclear Cardiology · doi:10.1007/s12350-010-9239-x · Cited by 52
Raposeiras‐Roubín, S., Virgós-Lamela, A., Bouzas‐Cruz, N., López-López, A., Castiñeira-Busto, M., Garda, R. F., García‐Castelo, A., Rodríguez‐Mañero, M., García‐Acuña, J. M., Abu-Assi, E., et al. (2014) · The American Journal of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.amjcard.2014.01.406 · Cited by 52
“Because the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is neither highly specific nor highly sensitive as a risk factor for follow-up death, considerable interest exists in identifying novel risk factors that may be more useful than, or adjunctive to, those currently employed.(4,5) Data from rest electrocardiography ma…”
BackgroundCompeting risk and heterogeneity of treatment effect in clinical trials
Kent, D. M., Alsheikh-Ali, A. A. A., & Hayward, R. A. (2008) · Trials · doi:10.1186/1745-6215-9-30 · Cited by 52
“However, the criteria used to identify eligible patients at high risk for sudden cardiac death (SCD), namely a left ventricular ejection fraction of 35% or less, also identifies patients at risk of cardiac death from pump failure [26,27].”
Munkhaugen, J., Ruddox, V. D. B., Halvorsen, S., Dammen, T., Fagerland, M. W., Hernæs, K. H., Vethe, N. T., Prescott, E., Jensen, S. E., Rødevand, O., et al. (2018) · American Heart Journal · doi:10.1016/j.ahj.2018.10.005 · Cited by 51
Kramer, D. B., Kennedy, K. F., Spertus, J. A., Normand, S. T., Noseworthy, P. A., Buxton, A. E., Josephson, M. E., ZIMETBAUM, P. J., Mitchell, S. L., & Reynolds, M. R. (2013) · Heart Rhythm · doi:10.1016/j.hrthm.2013.10.046 · Cited by 51
Self-citationRaja, V. N., Wiegn, P., OBEL, O. A., Christakopoulos, G. E., Christopoulos, G., Rangan, B. V., Roesle, M. K., Abdullah, S. M., Luna, M., Addo, T. A., et al. (2015) · The American Journal of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.amjcard.2015.07.057 · Cited by 51
Negishi, K., Negishi, T., Zardkoohi, O., Ching, E. A., Basu, N., Wilkoff, B. L., Popović, Z., & Marwick, T. H. (2015) · European Heart Journal - Cardiovascular Imaging · doi:10.1093/ehjci/jev333 · Cited by 48
The 12-lead electrocardiogram and risk of sudden death: current utility and future prospects
Narayanan, K., & Chugh, S. S. (2015) · EP Europace · doi:10.1093/europace/euv121 · Cited by 48
Tereshchenko, L. G., Cheng, A., Fetics, B. J., Butcher, B., Marine, J. E., SPRAGG, D. D., Sinha, S. K., Dalal, D., Calkins, H. G., Tomaselli, G. F., et al. (2010) · Journal of Electrocardiology · doi:10.1016/j.jelectrocard.2010.08.012 · Cited by 46
“The need to extend risk stratification beyond use of ejection fraction (EF) is well recognized.(5,6) A U-shaped curve for ICD benefit was shown in the analysis of the Multicenter Automatic Defibrillator Implantation Trial II,(5) prompting a search for markers that identify low-risk patients who do not benefit from ICD…”
Gatzoulis, K. A., Tsiachris, D., Dilaveris, P., Archontakis, S., Αρσένος, Π., Vouliotis, A., Sideris, S. K., Trantalis, G., Kartsagoulis, E., Kallikazaros, I. E., et al. (2012) · International Journal of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.ijcard.2012.04.005 · Cited by 45
“This approach is in line with retrospective analyses of MUSTT, where inducible VT/VF but not low LVEF could discriminate between modes of death, identifying patients at increased arrhythmic death, especially if LVEF was ≥30% [13,14].”
ResultT‐Wave Morphology Restitution Predicts Sudden Cardiac Death in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure
Ramírez, J., Orini, M., Mincholé, A., Monasterio, V., Cygankiewicz, I., de Luna, A. B., Martínez, J. P., Pueyo, E., & Laguna, P. (2017) · Journal of the American Heart Association · doi:10.1161/jaha.116.005310 · Cited by 44
“Most of those markers are also associated with PFD and have a reduced specificity for SCD risk prediction.(22,25,26) In our study, we demonstrate that TMR is a specific marker of SCD with no relation to PFD risk (Figure 3A).”
Almahameed, S., & Ziv, O. (2019) · Medical Clinics of North America · doi:10.1016/j.mcna.2019.05.008 · Cited by 44
Disertori, M., Quintarelli, S., Mazzola, S., Favalli, V., Narula, N., & Arbustini, E. (2013) · EP Europace · doi:10.1093/europace/eut228 · Cited by 44
Badarin, F. J. A., Wimmer, A. P., Kennedy, K. F., Jacobson, A. F., & Bateman, T. M. (2014) · Journal of Nuclear Cardiology · doi:10.1007/s12350-014-9919-z · Cited by 44
Fallavollita, J. A., Dare, J. D., Carter, R. L., Baldwa, S., & Canty, J. M. (2017) · Circulation Cardiovascular Imaging · doi:10.1161/circimaging.117.006446 · Cited by 44
Prognostic significance of ambulatory ECG monitoring for ventricular arrhythmias
Katritsis, D. G., Siontis, G. C. M., & Camm, A. J. (2013) · Progress in Cardiovascular Diseases · doi:10.1016/j.pcad.2013.07.005 · Cited by 44
Risk Factor and Prediction Modeling for Sudden Cardiac Death in Women with Coronary Artery Disease
Deo, R., Vittinghoff, E., Lin, F., Tseng, Z. H., Hulley, S., & Shlipak, M. (2011) · Archives of Internal Medicine · doi:10.1001/archinternmed.2011.328 · Cited by 44
“These findings complement those of prior studies in higher-risk populations that suggest that there is an improvement in SCD risk prediction when clinical risk factors are combined with ejection fraction.(27,28) Our final model, which consisted of both LVEF and clinical risk factors, also differentiated between SCD an…”
Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillators at End of Battery Life
Merchant, F. M., Quest, T. E., León, A. R., & El‐Chami, M. F. (2016) · Journal of the American College of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.jacc.2015.11.033 · Cited by 44
A Simple Community-Based Risk-Prediction Score for Sudden Cardiac Death
Bogle, B. M., Ning, H., Goldberger, J. J., Mehrotra, S., & Lloyd‐Jones, D. M. (2017) · The American Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.amjmed.2017.12.002 · Cited by 44
The role of the immuno-inflammatory response in patients after cardiac arrest
Samborska-Sablik, A., Sablik, Z., & Gaszyński, W. (2011) · Archives of Medical Science · doi:10.5114/aoms.2011.24131 · Cited by 41
Current Clinical Applications and Next Steps for Cardiac Innervation Imaging
Travin, M. I. (2017) · Current Cardiology Reports · doi:10.1007/s11886-017-0817-2 · Cited by 41
Benefits of the Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator
Epstein, A. E. (2008) · Journal of the American College of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.jacc.2008.06.035 · Cited by 40
Risum, N., Valeur, N., Søgaard, P., Hassager, C., Køber, L., & Ersbøll, M. K. (2017) · European Heart Journal - Cardiovascular Imaging · doi:10.1093/ehjci/jex184 · Cited by 39
“Left ventricular (LV) dysfunction [ejection fraction (EF) < 35%] is the most established parameter for selection of ICD patients(2) but has demonstrated limited ability in prediction of outcomes.(3) Thus, the current selection criteria for ICD needs to be further refined.”
BackgroundRohila, A., & Sharma, A. (2020) · Journal of Applied Biomedicine · doi:10.1016/j.bbe.2020.06.003 · Cited by 44
Centurión, O. A., Alderete, J. F., Torales, J. M., García, L. B., Scavenius, K. E., & Miño, L. M. (2019) · Critical Pathways in Cardiology A Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine · doi:10.1097/hpc.0000000000000171 · Cited by 37
Steín, K. M. (2008) · Progress in Cardiovascular Diseases · doi:10.1016/j.pcad.2007.10.001 · Cited by 37
“The absence of any “dose effect” to NSVT in MUSTT is concerning— patients with long runs of NSVT had the same outcome as those with only short episodes.(68) It is likewise intriguing to note that the absolute mortality reduction in DEFINITE was quite similar to the mortality reduction in observed in the nonischemic ca…”
ResultRecommendations for the use of electrophysiological study: Update 2018
Mureşan, L., Cismaru, G. L., Martins, R. P., Bataglia, A., Roşu, R., Puiu, M., Guşetu, G., Mada, R. O., Muresan, C., Ispas, D. R., et al. (2018) · Hellenic Journal of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.hjc.2018.09.002 · Cited by 37
Current Evidence Base for Use of the Implantable Cardioverter–Defibrillator
Hohnloser, S. H., & Israel, C. W. (2013) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/circulationaha.112.000547 · Cited by 34
Lerma, C., Gorelick, A. N., Ghanem, R. N., Glass, L., & Huikuri, H. V. (2013) · EP Europace · doi:10.1093/europace/eus415 · Cited by 34
“LVEF , 40%, non-sustained VT on Holter recording, and the inducibility of sustained VT during the electrophysiological study.(10) This study complies with the Declaration of Helsinki, locally appointed ethics committees approved the research protocol and informed consent was obtained from the patients.”
MethodUse of cardiac radionuclide imaging to identify patients at risk for arrhythmic sudden cardiac death
Kelesidis, I., & Travin, M. I. (2011) · Journal of Nuclear Cardiology · doi:10.1007/s12350-011-9482-9 · Cited by 32
Fauchier, L., Marijon, É., Defaye, P., Piot, O., Sadoul, N., Perier, M., Gras, D., Klug, D., Algalarrondo, V., Bordachar, P., et al. (2015) · The American Journal of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.amjcard.2015.02.031 · Cited by 32
Risk Stratification of Sudden Cardiac Death After Acute Myocardial Infarction
Bui, A. H., & Waks, J. W. (2018) · Journal of Innovations in Cardiac Rhythm Management · doi:10.19102/icrm.2018.090201 · Cited by 36
Guerra, F., Ammendola, E., Ziacchi, M., Aspromonte, V., Pellegrino, P. L., Giorno, G. D., Dell’Era, G., Pimpini, L., Santoro, F., Floris, R., et al. (2021) · European Journal of Clinical Pharmacology · doi:10.1007/s00228-021-03189-8 · Cited by 32
Schoenenberger, A. W., Kobza, R., Jamshidi, P., Züber, M., Abbate, A., Stuck, A. E., Pfisterer, M. E., & Erné, P. (2009) · The American Journal of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.amjcard.2009.03.019 · Cited by 31
Sood, N. A., Badarin, F. J. A., Parker, M. W., Pullatt, R. C., Jacobson, A. F., Bateman, T. M., & Heller, G. V. (2013) · Journal of Nuclear Cardiology · doi:10.1007/s12350-013-9750-y · Cited by 31
Metadata
- Authors
- Buxton, A. E., Lee, K. L., Hafley, G. E., Pires, L. A., Fisher, J. D., Gold, M. R., Josephson, M. E., Lehmann, M. H., & Prystowsky, E. N.
- Affiliations
- Brown University (US)
- Duke Medical Center (US)
- Albert Einstein College of Medicine (US)
- Medical University of South Carolina (US)
- Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (US)
- University of Michigan (US)
- Corresponding author
- Buxton, Alfred E.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Journal of the American College of Cardiology
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2007-09
- Volume
- 50
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 1150-1157
- ISSN
- 0735-1097 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W29926391
- Cited by
- 356
- References
- 25
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 24 · 2017: 27 · 2016: 24 · 2015: 28 · 2014: 23 · 2013: 40 · 2012: 21
- FWCI
- 17.79
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of the American College of Cardiology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (5u01hl045726-06)
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (UO1HL45700, UO1-HL45726, HL45700, U01HL045700)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiac electrophysiology and arrhythmias
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiac pacing and defibrillation studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiac Health and Mental Health
- Keywords
- ejection fraction, sudden cardiac death, arrhythmic death, coronary artery disease, left ventricular dysfunction, risk stratification, mortality prediction, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, atrial fibrillation, heart failure
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Anti-Arrhythmia Agents, Cause of Death, Coronary Artery Disease, Female, Heart Arrest, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Predictive Value of Tests, Probability, Sensitivity and Specificity, Stroke Volume, Confidence Intervals, Chi-Square Distribution, Proportional Hazards Models, Death, Sudden, Cardiac, Defibrillators, Implantable, Tachycardia, Ventricular, Risk Assessment
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