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Cited by 352

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Oil shocks and external balances

Kilian, Lutz, Rebucci, Alessandro, Spatafora, Nikola·2009·Journal of International Economics
DOI 10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.01.001
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Abstract

We provide estimates of the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of oil exporters' and oil importers' external balances, including the oil trade balance, the non-oil trade balance, the current account, capital gains, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA). First, we show that the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the merchandise trade balance and the current account, which depending on the source of the shock can be large, depends critically on the response of the non-oil trade balance. Our results provide evidence of an intermediate degree of international financial integration. Second, we document the presence of large and systematic valuation effects in response to these shocks. Valuation effects overall tend to cushion the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the NFA positions of oil exporters and oil importers. Third, we quantify the overall importance of global business cycle demand shocks as well as oil-market specific demand and supply shocks for external balances.

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Research works printed but not linked: 20

  1. Alquist, R., Kilian, L., forthcoming. What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures? Mimeo. Department of Economics, University of Michigan. Journal of Applied Econometrics. http://www-personal.umich.edu/~lkilian/paperlinks.html.
  2. Backus, 1998, Oil prices and the terms of trade, Journal of International Economics, 50, 185, 10.1016/S0022-1996(98)00064-6 · doi:10.1016/s0022-1996(98)00064-6
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  5. Bodenstein, M., Erceg, C.J., Guerrieri, L., 2008. Oil Shocks and U.S. External Adjustment. Mimeo. Federal Reserve Board. · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1003167
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  8. Devereux, M., Sutherland, A., 2008. Valuation Effects and the Dynamics of Net External Assets. Mimeo. Department of Economics, University of British Columbia. · doi:10.3386/w14794
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  16. Kilian, 2008, Exogenous oil supply shocks: how big are they and how much do they matter for the U.S. economy?, Review of Economics and Statistics, 90, 216, 10.1162/rest.90.2.216 · DOI · Paper page
  17. Kilian, L., forthcoming. Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market. Forthcoming: American Economic Review.
  18. Kilian, L., Park, C., forthcoming. The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market. Forthcoming: International Economic Review.
  19. Lane, 2007, The external wealth of nations mark ii: revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970–2004, Journal of International Economics, 73, 223, 10.1016/j.jinteco.2007.02.003 · DOI · Paper page
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Metadata

Authors
Kilian, L., Rebucci, A., & Spatafora, N.
Venue
Journal of International Economics
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2009-04
Volume
77
Issue
2
Pages
181-194
ISSN
0022-1996 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.01.001
OpenAlex
W3121188296
Cited by
352
References
0
FWCI
51.78
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Oil shocks and external balances. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.01.001
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Kilian, L., Rebucci, A., & Spatafora, N. (2009). Oil shocks and external balances. Journal of International Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.01.001

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