Robust prediction of relative binding energies for protein-protein complex mutations using free energy perturbation calculations
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
Computational free energy-based methods have the potential to significantly improve throughput and decrease costs of protein design efforts. Such methods must reach a high level of reliability, accuracy, and automation to be effectively deployed in practical industrial settings in a way that impacts protein design projects. Here, we present a benchmark study for the calculation of relative changes in protein-protein binding affinity for single point mutations across a variety of systems from the literature, using free energy perturbation (FEP+) calculations. We describe a method for robust treatment of alternate protonation states for titratable amino acids, which yields improved correlation with and reduced error compared to experimental binding free energies. Following careful analysis of the largest outlier cases in our dataset, we assess limitations of the default FEP+ protocols and introduce an automated script which identifies probable outlier cases that may require additional scrutiny and calculates an empirical correction for a subset of charge-related outliers. Through a series of three additional case study systems, we discuss how Protein FEP+ can be applied to real-world protein design projects, and suggest areas of further study.
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Claims the paper makes
14 of 22 cited sources checked · 7 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
- Findingcitation
FEP+ results from longer simulation and rigorous treatment of titratable residues yielded accuracy consistent with previous studies, with RMSE about 1.0-1.5 kcal/mol.
“The FEP+ results from longer simulation time and rigorous treatment of titratable residues yielded accuracy consistent with results from previous studies, with RMSE in the range of about 1.0–1.5 kcal/mol [17,18].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites [17] source
The Extended sampling section reports that longer simulations improved accuracy for tryptophan mutations. But the Summary of results using recommended protocol gives an overall RMSE of 0.70 kcal/mol, not about 1.0–1.5 kcal/mol. The Discussion treats methods for handling protonation-state changes as work still needed, rather than a rigorous treatment used to obtain these results. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [18] source
Table 2 (Results and Discussion; page unavailable) reports FEP RMSEs of 1.41 kcal/mol overall and 1.23 kcal/mol for non-buried mutations, within the claimed range, but 1.79 kcal/mol for buried mutations. The Methods describe extended simulations, and the discussion of buried sites describes explicit modeling of protonation states; however, it calls the pKa correction approximate, so “rigorous treatment” overstates that aspect of the source. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Rests on an assumption: Experimental binding affinity values from ITC or SPR are accurate enough to serve as ground truth for assessing FEP+ prediction error.
- Premisecitation
FEP+ outperformed several other computational methods in probing effects of mutations on the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and human ACE2 interaction.
“It has also been used recently to probe the effects of mutations on the interaction between the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral spike protein and the human angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor, where it outperformed several other computational methods, as determined both by the agreement of its results with experiment and by its ability to identify st”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [39] source
- Interpretationcitation
The large unfavorable experimental binding ΔΔG for 6SBA B:T20A suggests that a substantial rearrangement occurs for the unbound mutant peptide, not sampled in simulation, incurring a reorganization penalty to adopt the binding-competent conformation.
“The large unfavorable experimental binding ΔΔG, in this case, suggests that—as previously hypothesized [47]—a substantial rearrangement occurs for the unbound mutant peptide in the physical system, which was not sampled in simulation, and which would incur a reorganization penalty to adopt the binding-competent conformation present in the complex structure and FEP+ calculations.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [47] source
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 1 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
The intrinsic uncertainty expected from experimental protein-protein and protein-ligand SPR binding measurements has been proposed to be 0.4-0.9 kcal/mol.
“This level of accuracy is approaching the intrinsic uncertainty expected from experimental results, which has been proposed to be in the range of 0.4–0.9 kcal/mol for protein-protein and protein-ligand SPR binding measurements [34,39,48].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 3 sources checked- cites [34] source
- cites [39] source
The Methods (Surface plasmon resonance; page unavailable) estimate an experimental error of approximately 0.4 kcal/mol for this study’s RBD–ACE2 SPR binding measurements, and the Discussion calls that a typical reproducibility error even for high-quality SPR results. The paper does not propose a 0.4–0.9 kcal/mol uncertainty range for protein-protein and protein-ligand SPR measurements; its nearby 0.5–1 kcal/mol range describes computational RMS errors, not experimental uncertainty. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [48] source
The paper reports protein–ligand experimental variability near the proposed range: 0.41 kcal/mol for repeated measurements in the background discussion and 0.91 kcal/mol for relative-affinity reproducibility in the experimental survey (Validation of the experimental error estimates; page unavailable). It does not establish a 0.4–0.9 kcal/mol range specifically for SPR measurements or for protein–protein binding. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Interpretationcitation
These results are consistent with previous protein FEP+ results where accuracy has been at or near 1 kcal/mol.
“These results are consistent with previous protein FEP+ results where accuracy has been at or near the 1 kcal/mol level[17,18,35,36,39,40].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim4 of 6 sources checked
- Findingown data
Among 19 outlier cases with absolute errors greater than 2 kcal/mol, 12 cases (63%) were flagged.
“This included 12 out of 19 outlier cases with absolute errors > 2 kcal/mol (63%).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Among 134 well-predicted cases with absolute errors less than 1 kcal/mol, only 3 cases (2%) were flagged as likely outliers.
“Of the 134 well predicted cases with absolute errors < 1 kcal/mol, only 3 (2%) were flagged as likely outliers.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Cases with absolute errors larger than 2 kcal/mol totaled 19, about 9% of the full dataset.
“We initially focused on cases with absolute errors larger than 2 kcal/mol, which totaled 19 cases, or about 9% of the full dataset.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Experimental binding affinity values from ITC or SPR are accurate enough to serve as ground truth for assessing FEP+ prediction error.
- Findingown data
After empirical correction of charged outlier cases and exclusion of other flagged cases, the benchmark dataset R2 increased from 0.3 to 0.42.
“demonstrated a marked improvement in both RMSE (which decreased from 1.35 to 1.03) and R2 (which increased from 0.3 to 0.42) compared to the full 100 ns FEP+ Groups treated dataset”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The automated outlier prediction script flagged 22 potentially problematic cases among 208 mutations in the 100 ns FEP+ Groups-treated benchmark dataset.
“The automated outlier prediction script flagged 22 potentially problematic cases among a total of 208 mutations from the 100 ns FEP+ Groups-treated benchmark dataset.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The largest outlier class comprised 7 cases where mutation eliminated a salt bridge present at the binding interface in the wild-type structure.
“The largest outlier class comprised 7 cases, one-third of the outlier cases, where mutation resulted in the elimination of a salt bridge present at the binding interface in the wt structure.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Unpaired charges at the binding interface always showed a positive signed error in FEP+ predictions relative to experiment, meaning predicted binding ΔΔG values were too unfavorable.
“Specifically, unpaired charges at the binding interface always exhibited a positive signed error in the FEP+ prediction relative to experiment, that is, the predicted binding ΔΔG values were too unfavorable.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
For the six trans salt bridge cases, FEP+ overpredicted the unfavorability of the mutations by approximately 3 kcal/mol.
“for the 6 trans salt bridge cases, FEP+ overpredicted the unfavorability of the mutations by approximately 3 kcal/mol.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Experimental binding affinity values from ITC or SPR are accurate enough to serve as ground truth for assessing FEP+ prediction error.
- Findingown data
Several large outliers among the naïve treatment results involved mutation to or from titratable residues.
“Several of the large outliers among the naïve treatment results involved mutation to or from titratable residues.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
For charged outlier cases, the sign of the error relative to experiment depended only on the location of the offending charged residue, regardless of whether the charge was introduced by mutation or left unpaired by mutation of a neighboring residue.
“In each case, the sign of the error relative to experiment depended only on the location of the offending charged residue, regardless of whether the charge was introduced with the mutation or left unpaired by mutation of a neighboring residue.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
After empirical correction of charged outlier cases and exclusion of other flagged cases, the benchmark dataset RMSE decreased from 1.35 to 1.03.
“demonstrated a marked improvement in both RMSE (which decreased from 1.35 to 1.03) and R2 (which increased from 0.3 to 0.42) compared to the full 100 ns FEP+ Groups treated dataset”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Leaving an unpaired charge internal to one of the proteins and not involved in binding, as in 1DVF B:E98A, resulted in a negative signed error.
“Whereas, leaving an unpaired charge internal to one of the proteins and not involved in binding, as described above for 1DVF B:E98A, resulted in a negative signed error.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Among 55 cases with absolute errors between 1 and 2 kcal/mol, 7 cases (13%) were flagged as probable outliers.
“Additionally we marked as probable outliers 7 cases out of 55 with absolute errors between 1–2 kcal/mol (13%).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
For automatically flagged charge-related outlier cases from the benchmark dataset, the mean absolute error was 2.8 ± 1.0 kcal/mol.
“We observed that the magnitudes of the errors for the automatically flagged charge-related outlier cases from the benchmark dataset were relatively consistent across the individual outlier categories, with a mean absolute error of 2.8 ± 1.0 kcal/mol.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Relatively few cases showed substantial change in predicted binding ΔΔG between 10 and 100 ns, with a median absolute shift of 0.33 kcal/mol.
“Notably, relatively few cases showed substantial change in predicted binding ΔΔG between the 10 ns and 100 ns timepoints, with median absolute ΔΔG shifts of 0.33 kcal/mol, as shown in Supplemental Figure 2.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
FEP+ predictions classified benchmark dataset cases with an overall balanced accuracy of 0.69.
“We found that the FEP+ predictions successfully classified cases from the benchmark dataset with an overall balanced accuracy (arithmetic mean of sensitivity and specificity) of 0.69.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
After correction and exclusion, only 3 outlier cases remained with a classification error larger than 1 class.
“Additionally, only 3 outlier cases remained with a classification error larger than 1 class, indicating that the automatic flagging procedure successfully identified for removal from the high confidence dataset many of the predictions with the largest errors.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
FEP+ Groups treatment substantially affected results in 8 cases at 10 ns and 6 cases at 100 ns among 100 mutations involving titratable residues, with differences larger than 0.25 kcal/mol.
“The number of cases where this groups treatment substantially affects the results is relatively small, with differences larger than 0.25 kcal/mol observed among the 100 mutations involving titratable residues for 8 and 6 cases, for the 10 and 100 ns results, respectively.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Disruption of a π interaction likely contributed to at least one outlier case in the benchmark set.
“In addition to sampling errors, we found disruption of a π interaction likely contributed to at least one outlier case in the benchmark set.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingreasoning
Protein binding FEP+ predictions for proline are significantly more challenging than protein stability FEP+ predictions.
“However, we have found (both in the current work and in our previous experience with other systems not discussed here) that protein binding FEP+ predictions for proline are significantly more challenging.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The case studies achieved good three-class classification accuracy, with overall balanced accuracy of 0.70 across the three systems.
“As with the benchmark dataset, we achieve good accuracy in three-class classification of the case studies results, as depicted in Figure 6(b). Across classification results for the three systems, overall balanced accuracy was 0.70, and after outlier flagging and empirical correction, no cases resulted in a classification error larger than 1 class.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
After automated flagging, empirical correction, and removal of flagged probable outliers, the remaining high-confidence set of 186 cases had an RMSE of 1.03 kcal/mol and R2 of 0.4.
“After the automated flagging and empirical correction, and removal of the flagged probable outlier cases (for which FEP+ results using default protocols were identified as likely to yield ΔΔG results with large errors), for the remaining high-confidence set of 186 cases FEP+ predictions agreed well with experiment, with an RMSE of 1.03 kcal/mol and R2 of 0.4.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
After outlier flagging and empirical correction, no case studies cases had a classification error larger than 1 class.
“Across classification results for the three systems, overall balanced accuracy was 0.70, and after outlier flagging and empirical correction, no cases resulted in a classification error larger than 1 class.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Some of the largest errors in the full benchmark dataset arose for cases where conformational rearrangement was observed or expected.
“Some of the largest errors in the full benchmark dataset arose for cases where conformational rearrangement was either observed (as seen with the change in conformation of 1DVF wt residue D:H33) or expected (e.g. when mutating to or from proline in a surface loop, or when mutating a solvent-exposed polar residue to hydrophobic Ala in a small cyclic peptide).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The remaining outlier 6SBA B:T20A (experimental 2.88, predicted 0.05) was at a position on the 6SBA cyclic peptide that, like 1JRH I:E55A, did not interact directly with the target protein in the crystal structure.
“This remaining outlier, 6SBA B:T20A (expt. 2.88, pred. 0.05), was located at a position on the 6SBA cyclic peptide which, like 1JRH I:E55A in the benchmark dataset, did not interact directly with the target protein in the crystal structure.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
After applying the empirical correction for the charged outlier and excluding other automatically flagged cases, only 1 outlier case remained in the case studies.
“After applying the empirical correction for the charged outlier (using the value fit to the benchmark dataset only) and excluding other automatically flagged cases, only 1 outlier case remained.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Several classes of mutations appeared problematic and were broadly classified as related to insufficient conformational sampling or limitations in the OPLS4 force field.
“We identified several classes of mutations that appeared to be problematic. These were broadly classified as either related to insufficient conformational sampling or due to limitations in the OPLS4 force field, and more specifically into the outlier classes presented in Table 3 and Figure 4.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Analysis of the 1JRH I:N53A outlier case, which disrupts a well-defined π-hydrogen bond, showed marked improvement with a developmental force field with explicit polarization.
“Our analysis of the 1JRH I:N53A outlier case, which disrupts a well-defined π-hydrogen bond (Figure 4(e)), demonstrated marked improvement with a developmental force field with explicit polarization.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductreasoning
The benchmark dataset was limited to binding measurements made by ITC or SPR to increase reliability of experimental values.
“To increase the reliability of the experimental values, we limited the dataset to include only measurements made by isothermal calorimetry (ITC) or surface plasmon resonance (SPR).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
For a positive signed error, the mutant bound complex was insufficiently relaxed in simulation, causing the predicted ΔΔG to be too unfavorable.
“This was consistent with our interpretation that in the case of a positive signed error, the mutant bound complex was insufficiently relaxed in simulation, thereby causing the predicted ΔΔG to be too unfavorable.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The automatic flagging procedure successfully identified for removal from the high-confidence dataset many predictions with the largest errors.
“Additionally, only 3 outlier cases remained with a classification error larger than 1 class, indicating that the automatic flagging procedure successfully identified for removal from the high confidence dataset many of the predictions with the largest errors.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The outlier error sources can broadly be categorized as sampling errors or force field errors.
“These error sources can broadly be categorized as either sampling errors, where the system had not yet fully relaxed or failed to sample relevant areas of conformation space; or force field errors, where specific interaction types may not be handled properly by the current OPLS4 force field.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The source of error in each charge-related outlier category is insufficient sampling after burial of a charge without an oppositely charged partner residue.
“Indeed, when one considers that the source of the error in each of the categories is the same—namely, insufficient sampling after burial of a charge without an oppositely charged partner residue—this is not unexpected.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Rigorous validation of a force field with explicit polarization for aromatic and other delocalized π electron residue types may help eliminate some of these errors by better accounting for π interaction energetics.
“Rigorous validation of a force field with explicit polarization for aromatic and other residue types with delocalized π electrons may help to eliminate some of these kinds of errors, by better accounting for the energetics of π interactions.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Proline perturbations in flexible loops are particularly challenging because they tend to adopt different conformations from those preferred by other less torsionally constrained residues.
“Proline perturbations in flexible loops are particularly challenging, as they are prone to adopting different conformations from those preferred by other less torsionally constrained residues.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Cases requiring substantial rearrangement in the physical system may be beyond the domain of applicability for protein binding FEP+ calculations run with default protocol.
“Cases where substantial rearrangement is required in the physical system may be considered beyond the domain of applicability for protein binding FEP+ calculations run with default protocol.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Conformational changes of this sort can generally be considered beyond the domain of applicability of FEP.
“This sort of conformational change can be generally thought to be beyond the domain of applicability of FEP.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
For a mutation of a non-contact residue to have a non-negligible effect on binding affinity, there must necessarily be a substantive change in conformation.
“This is another instance where for mutation of a non-contact residue to have non-negligible effect on binding affinity there must necessarily be a substantive change in conformation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 10
- May combine two claims. 38
- The quote only partly states this claim. 2
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationFEP+ has demonstrated high accuracy and reliability in predicting binding potencies of small molecules with their protein targets.
“Over the past decade FEP+ has demonstrated a high level of accuracy and reliability in predicting the binding potencies of small molecules with their protein targets, both via relative binding FEP for congeneric ligands in lead optimization and via absolute binding FEP for diverse ligands in hit discovery [31,32].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked- cites [31] source
The Introduction (p. 2) describes free-energy calculations as a preferred approach to estimating ligand binding affinity, and Section 2 (p. 3) discusses studies assessing their accuracy and reliability across many ligands and targets. The review does not establish the citing sentence’s more specific claim that FEP+ demonstrated high accuracy and reliability through both relative calculations in lead optimization and absolute calculations for diverse ligands in hit discovery; its absolute-affinity example in Section 3 (p. 4) is a toy model. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [32]
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationFEP+ has been adapted to predict effects of neutral and charge-changing perturbations on protein-protein binding affinity.
“We have previously published proof-of-concept studies for the application of FEP+ to predict the effects of neutral and charge-changing perturbations on protein-protein binding affinity [17,18]”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites [17] source
The Conclusions describe a proof of concept for predicting protein–protein binding affinities from alanine-scan mutations. They explicitly state that the paper had not yet demonstrated treatment of mutations that change a protein’s net charge, so this source supports the neutral-perturbation part but not the charge-changing part. (LLM, conf=0.91)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [18] source
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationProline mutations have been treated before in protein stability FEP+ with reasonable success.
“Proline mutations have been treated before in protein stability FEP+ with reasonable success [35].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [35] source
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn a hypothetical restrictive application on the full benchmark set, testing only cases with calculated ΔΔG of −0.5 kcal/mol or less would result in 13 variants tested, a 31% positive hit rate, and recovery of 4 of 8 actives (50%).
“if we were to take the full benchmark set as a hypothetical example and consider the most restrictive application of these classification results with only cases having calculated ΔΔG of −0.5 kcal/mol or less (using the unflagged 100 ns cases after FEP+ Groups treatment of protonation states and automated outlier flagging and empirical correction) to be tested by experiment, this would result in”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown data1JRH I:G50A (experimental +4.53, predicted +1.49), I:E55A (experimental -0.43, predicted +1.74), and I:E55P (experimental -3.79, predicted +1.63) involve mutations on the flexible I:50-56 loop of IFNγR1.
“The 1JRH I:G50A (expt. +4.53, pred. +1.49), I:E55A (expt. −0.43, pred. +1.74), and I:E55P (expt. −3.79, pred +1.63) cases, which are also depicted in Supplemental Figure 4, each involve mutation of a residue on the flexible I:50–56 loop of the interferon γ receptor 1 (IFNγR1) antigen.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Experimental binding affinity values from ITC or SPR are accurate enough to serve as ground truth for assessing FEP+ prediction error.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn the case studies, 4 of 5 outlier cases were automatically flagged and 3 of those were empirically corrected.
“The effect of the automated outlier flagging and empirical correction procedure was also similar, with 4 out of 5 outlier cases being automatically flagged and 3 of those empirically corrected.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe Protein FEP+ Groups treatment improves correlation with and reduces error relative to experimental binding free energies.
“We describe a method for robust treatment of alternate protonation states for titratable amino acids, which yields improved correlation with and reduced error compared to experimental binding free energies.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataOn average, 100 ns FEP+ simulations produced smaller overall errors but similar correlation coefficients compared to 10 ns simulations.
“We found that on average the longer 100 ns simulations resulted in smaller overall errors, but similar correlation coefficients, compared to the more typical 10 ns simulations.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataNaïve FEP+ treatment at 10 ns yielded RMSE 1.65 kcal/mol and R2 0.29 against experimental binding ΔΔG values.
“Overall root mean square error (RMSE) for these naïve calculated ΔΔG values compared to experimentally measured values are 1.65 and 1.42 kcal/mol, and coefficient of determination (R2) values are 0.29 and 0.27, for 10 and 100 ns results, respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Experimental binding affinity values from ITC or SPR are accurate enough to serve as ground truth for assessing FEP+ prediction error.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataSix of the salt-bridge cases disrupted trans salt bridges (1IAR A:R81A/E, A:R85A/E, A:R88A/Q), while one (1VFB C:D119A) disrupted a cis salt bridge.
“Six of the cases (which were all mutations at one of three Arg positions in the 1IAR system: A:R81A/E, A:R85A/E, and A:R88A/Q) disrupted trans salt bridges, that is, salt bridges involving residues from both protein binding components, whereas one case (1VFB C:D119A) disrupted a cis salt bridge, between two residues from the same side of the interface.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataFEP+ with explicit polarization improved the predicted ΔΔG for 1JRH I:N53A to +3.09 kcal/mol (error -0.8), suggesting explicit polarization may improve similar cases.
“The FEP+ results with explicit polarization resulted in substantial improvement of the predicted binding ΔΔG, to +3.09 kcal/mol (an error of −0.8 compared to experiment). This preliminary result reflects an increased stabilization of the wt complex by more accurately modeling the energetics of the π-hydrogen bond between the Asn and Trp sidechains, and suggests the inclusion of explicit”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Experimental binding affinity values from ITC or SPR are accurate enough to serve as ground truth for assessing FEP+ prediction error.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataAll seven salt-bridge-elimination cases were unfavorable experimentally, with ΔΔG from +0.43 to +3.75 kcal/mol, but FEP+ predicted them too unfavorable with signed errors from +2.3 to +4.5 kcal/mol.
“All seven cases were unfavorable experimentally, with binding ΔΔG s ranging from +0.43 to +3.75 kcal/mol, but FEP+ consistently predicted them to be too unfavorable with signed errors ranging from +2.3 to +4.5 kcal/mol.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Experimental binding affinity values from ITC or SPR are accurate enough to serve as ground truth for assessing FEP+ prediction error.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataFor 1IAR A:W91D, experimental ΔΔG was +1.31 kcal/mol, naïve prediction +3.42, and FEP+ Groups prediction +1.99, reducing absolute error from 2.11 to 0.68 kcal/mol.
“Experimentally the Asp mutation yielded a binding ΔΔG of +1.31 kcal/mol, but the naïve prediction of +3.42 was overly unfavorable.”
- Also stated in: § Effect of Protein FEP+ Groups treatment · plain
“Accounting for this change in dominant protonation state, the FEP+ Groups treatment yielded a more accurate predicted ΔΔG of +1.99 kcal/mol, corresponding to a decrease in absolute error from 2.11 to 0.68 kcal/mol.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Experimental binding affinity values from ITC or SPR are accurate enough to serve as ground truth for assessing FEP+ prediction error.
- Rests on an assumption: The initial protonation states assigned to titratable residues in the prepared models are appropriate for the experimental pH.
- Also stated in: § Effect of Protein FEP+ Groups treatment · plain
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataNaïve FEP+ treatment at 100 ns yielded RMSE 1.42 kcal/mol and R2 0.27 against experimental binding ΔΔG values.
“Overall root mean square error (RMSE) for these naïve calculated ΔΔG values compared to experimentally measured values are 1.65 and 1.42 kcal/mol, and coefficient of determination (R2) values are 0.29 and 0.27, for 10 and 100 ns results, respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Experimental binding affinity values from ITC or SPR are accurate enough to serve as ground truth for assessing FEP+ prediction error.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataFor 6NRQ C:Q138D, experimental ΔΔG was +1.54 kcal/mol, naïve prediction +4.09, and FEP+ Groups prediction +0.75, reducing error from 2.55 to 0.79 kcal/mol.
“This mutation was also unfavorable experimentally (+1.54 kcal/mol), but the naïve predicted value was again too highly destabilizing (+4.09).”
- Also stated in: § Effect of Protein FEP+ Groups treatment · plain
“FEP+ Groups treatment produced a predicted ΔΔG of +0.75, reducing the error from 2.55 to 0.79 kcal/mol.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Experimental binding affinity values from ITC or SPR are accurate enough to serve as ground truth for assessing FEP+ prediction error.
- Rests on an assumption: The initial protonation states assigned to titratable residues in the prepared models are appropriate for the experimental pH.
- Also stated in: § Effect of Protein FEP+ Groups treatment · plain
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataFor 1DVF B:E98A, experimental ΔΔG was +4.19 kcal/mol and predicted -0.05, an absolute error of 4.24 kcal/mol; wild-type B:Glu98 forms a salt bridge with A:Arg96 across the VH-VL interface.
“Specifically, for 1DVF B:E98A (expt. +4.19; pred. −0.05), in the wt structure residue B:Glu98 forms a salt bridge with A:Arg96 across the internal VH−VL heterodimerization interface, between the heavy and light chain variable domains of the antibody Fv region.”
- Also stated in: § Outliers due to insufficient sampling and other conformational issues · plain
“resulting in an underprediction of the unfavorability of the mutation and a large absolute error of 4.24 kcal/mol.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Experimental binding affinity values from ITC or SPR are accurate enough to serve as ground truth for assessing FEP+ prediction error.
- Rests on an assumption: The PDB crystal structures used as starting models accurately represent the relevant experimental protein-protein complexes.
- Also stated in: § Outliers due to insufficient sampling and other conformational issues · plain
May combine two claims.
Findingown data1JRH I:G50 has a high-energy backbone conformation resembling a γ-turn and is a Ramachandran outlier; two other crystal structures show IFNγR1 adopting an alternative conformation of the I:50-56 loop.
“The first of these, 1JRH I:G50, is located in a tight turn with geometry resembling a γ-turn, and backbone φ and ψ angles that make it an outlier in the Ramachandran plot for the crystal structure (Supplemental Figure 4 a–b) This high-energy backbone conformation would require substantial relaxation to achieve the true lowest energy conformation. Indeed, two other crystal structures (1FYH chain B,”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The PDB crystal structures used as starting models accurately represent the relevant experimental protein-protein complexes.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataCharge-flipping cases 1IAR A:K12E and A:K84D were unfavorable experimentally and gave signed errors greater than +1 kcal/mol, suggesting buried unpaired charges from charge flipping also tend to be undersampled.
“the other two (1IAR A:K12E and A:K84D), were also unfavorable experimentally and gave signed errors greater than +1 kcal/mol, suggesting that these types of buried (or mostly buried) unpaired charges resulting from charge flipping perturbations also tend to be undersampled.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Experimental binding affinity values from ITC or SPR are accurate enough to serve as ground truth for assessing FEP+ prediction error.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe case studies dataset had an initial RMSE of 1.32 and an initial R2 of 0.15 for the full FEP+ Groups-treated 100 ns dataset, with the low R2 due to a large proline mutation outlier.
“The results for the case studies dataset were similar to those from the benchmark set, with initial RMSE of 1.32, though due to a large proline mutation outlier, a relatively low initial R2 of 0.15 for the full FEP+ Groups-treated 100 ns dataset.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingreasoningFor 1JRH I:N53A, experimental ΔΔG was +3.89 kcal/mol and predicted +1.37; the mutation affects a π-hydrogen bond between the Asn sidechain amide and the π cloud of I:Trp96, and fixed-charge OPLS4 could not account for this interaction, making the prediction too favorable by 2.5 kcal/mol.
“the case in question, 1JRH I:N53A (expt. +3.89, pred. +1.37), involved mutation of a residue that participates in a well-defined π interaction in the wt crystal structure.”
- Also stated in: § Outlier attributed to force field limitations · plain
“Due to the fixed-charge nature of the OPLS4 force field, it was not possible for the FEP+ calculation to account for the contribution of this π interaction to the stability of the wt complex, which resulted in a predicted binding ΔΔG value that was too favorable by 2.5 kcal/mol.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Experimental binding affinity values from ITC or SPR are accurate enough to serve as ground truth for assessing FEP+ prediction error.
- Rests on an assumption: The PDB crystal structures used as starting models accurately represent the relevant experimental protein-protein complexes.
- Also stated in: § Outlier attributed to force field limitations · plain
May combine two claims.
Findingown data1DVF D:Y98A (experimental +4.74, predicted +1.32) and D:R100BY (experimental +4.09, predicted +1.2) are outliers in the CDR H3 loop; reprediction identified a lower-energy loop conformation in the unbound antibody.
“A final sampling-related outlier class, shown in Figure 4(f), involved mutations in the 1DVF antibody CDR H3 loop, D:Y98A (expt. +4.74, pred. +1.32) and D:R100BY (expt. +4.09, pred. +1.2).”
- Also stated in: § Outliers due to insufficient sampling and other conformational issues · plain
“For each of these cases, we repredicted the conformation of the CDR H3 loop in the unbound free antibody, and in each case identified a different loop conformation with lower energy than the crystal structure-like conformation (Supplemental Figure 5).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Experimental binding affinity values from ITC or SPR are accurate enough to serve as ground truth for assessing FEP+ prediction error.
- Rests on an assumption: The PDB crystal structures used as starting models accurately represent the relevant experimental protein-protein complexes.
- Also stated in: § Outliers due to insufficient sampling and other conformational issues · plain
May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataIn a hypothetical less stringent application including neutral mutations (calculated ΔΔG of +0.5 kcal/mol or less), testing would result in 100 variants measured, a 7% positive hit rate, 88% recovery, 7 of 8 true actives classified as neutral or favorable, 1 false negative, and a 50% reduction in experimental mutations.
“If we were to use a less stringent approach and include neutral mutations—that is, proceeding with experimental testing of all cases with calculated ΔΔG of +0.5 kcal/mol or less, this would result in experimental measurement of 100 variants, a positive hit rate of 7%, and recovery of 88%, with 7 out of 8 true actives in the experimental dataset classified as neutral or favorable in FEP+”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataApplying the FEP+ Groups treatment decreased RMSE and increased PCC and R2 at both 10 and 100 ns.
“After applying the FEP+ Groups treatment to the retrospective calculations, we observed decreased RMSE and increased Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) and R2 at both 10 and 100 ns time points.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Experimental binding affinity values from ITC or SPR are accurate enough to serve as ground truth for assessing FEP+ prediction error.
May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataFor 1DVF D:H33A, experimental ΔΔG was +1.86 kcal/mol and predicted -0.26; using the final frame of an MD trajectory as input, FEP+ predicted +1.56 kcal/mol, within 0.30 of experimental.
“In the 1DVF D:H33A case (expt. +1.86, pred. −0.26), which is presented in more detail in Supplemental Figure 3, the geometry of the wt D:His55 residue (modeled as HIP) from the crystal structure showed its Nε proton interacting with two side chain carboxylate groups, from D:Asp52 (in cis) and B:Asp100 (in trans).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Experimental binding affinity values from ITC or SPR are accurate enough to serve as ground truth for assessing FEP+ prediction error.
- Rests on an assumption: The PDB crystal structures used as starting models accurately represent the relevant experimental protein-protein complexes.
May combine two claims.
Findingown data1JRH I:E55 has a highly solvent-exposed side chain making no direct contact with antibody in the wild-type structure; it is about 6 Å from H:Lys64 and the N-terminal L:Ser1, and FEP+/MD trajectories show it interacting with the charged N-terminus of chain L.
“The second mutation site on this loop, 1JRH I:E55, has a side chain that is highly solvent exposed in the complex, making no direct contact with any antibody residue in the wt crystal structure. It is approximately 6 Å from two different primary amino groups—namely the solvent-exposed (and therefore flexible) H:Lys64 side chain and the N-terminal amino group from L:Ser1—and FEP+ and MD”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The PDB crystal structures used as starting models accurately represent the relevant experimental protein-protein complexes.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataAfter empirical correction of charged outlier cases and exclusion of the flagged proline mutation case, the case studies RMSE improved to 0.79 kcal/mol and R2 increased to 0.46.
“After empirical correction of the charged outlier cases and exclusion of the flagged proline mutation case, RMSE was improved to 0.79 kcal/mol, and R2 increased substantially to 0.46.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAmong cases involving titratable residues, FEP+ Groups treatment decreased RMSE from 2.33 to 1.48 kcal/mol at 10 ns and from 1.83 to 1.35 kcal/mol at 100 ns.
“among these cases involving titratable residues, FEP+ Groups treatment resulted in decreased RMSE at both timepoints, from 2.33 to 1.48 kcal/mol at 10 ns, and from 1.83 to 1.35 kcal/mol at 100 ns.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Experimental binding affinity values from ITC or SPR are accurate enough to serve as ground truth for assessing FEP+ prediction error.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataFor 1IAR A:W91D, FEP+ Groups pKa calculations indicated the unbound ASP form was dominant with pKa 6.5, while the bound state preferred neutral ASH with pKa 8.5.
“In the unbound state, the deprotonated ASP form was calculated to be dominant, with an A:D91 side chain pKa of 6.5; whereas in the bound state, a higher complex pKa of 8.5 indicated a preference for the neutral ASH form.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The initial protonation states assigned to titratable residues in the prepared models are appropriate for the experimental pH.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataA number of mutations exhibited absolute errors in binding ΔΔG larger than 2 kcal/mol compared to experiment, which would reduce prediction accuracy in prospective studies.
“However, a number of mutations exhibited absolute errors in binding ΔΔG larger than 2 kcal/mol compared to experiment, which would reduce the prediction accuracy in prospective studies.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Experimental binding affinity values from ITC or SPR are accurate enough to serve as ground truth for assessing FEP+ prediction error.
May combine two claims.
FindingreasoningThree cases (1JRH L:Y91A and H:H100BA; 1VFB B:W52A) involved mutation of larger buried aromatic residues to alanine; all were modestly unfavorable experimentally (+0.6 to +1.7 kcal/mol), but FEP+ overpredicted unfavorability by 3-5 kcal/mol.
“Figure 4(d) depicts an outlier class consisting of three cases (1JRH L:Y91A and H:H100BA; and 1VFB B:W52A) which involved mutations of larger aromatic residues, buried in the complex structure, to much smaller side chains, namely alanine. All three were modestly unfavorable experimentally (+0.6 to +1.7 kcal/mol), but FEP+ overpredicted the unfavorability by 3–5 kcal/mol.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Experimental binding affinity values from ITC or SPR are accurate enough to serve as ground truth for assessing FEP+ prediction error.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataFor 6NRQ C:Q138D, FEP+ Groups pKas were 8.4 unbound and 10.9 bound, elevated relative to isolated Asp pKa 3.67, indicating neutral ASH was preferred in both states at pH 7.2.
“Due to hydrophobic contacts and the proximity of C:Glu136, FEP+ Groups-calculated pKas for both physical macrostates were significantly elevated compared to the pKa value of 3.67 for an isolated Asp in solution [45], with calculated pKa values of 8.4 (unbound) and 10.9 (bound), thus indicating the neutral ASH form was preferred in both unbound and bound states at the experimental pH of 7.2.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [45] source
- Rests on an assumption: The initial protonation states assigned to titratable residues in the prepared models are appropriate for the experimental pH.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown dataBoth proline cases in the datasets considered here were mutations to or from proline in flexible loops at the binding interface.
“We note that both proline cases in the datasets considered here (one each in the benchmark and case studies sets) were mutations to or from proline in flexible loops at the binding interface.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn a hypothetical less stringent approach for the case studies, testing would result in 28 variants, a 25% positive hit rate, 100% recovery, 7 of 7 true actives classified as neutral or favorable, no false negatives, and a 32% reduction in experimental mutations.
“Using the less stringent approach and including neutral mutations would result in experimental measurement of 28 variants, a positive hit rate of 25%, and recovery of 100%, with 7 out of 7 true actives in the experimental subset corresponding to neutral or favorable FEP+ predictions, and leaving no false negatives, while reducing the number of experimental mutations by 32%.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
FindingreasoningIn a hypothetical strict-cutoff design project for the case studies, testing would result in 8 variants, a 50% positive hit rate, and recovery of 4 of 7 actives (57%).
“Treated collectively as a hypothetical design project, using the same strict cutoff criteria as described in the previous section, this classification would result in the experimental testing of only 8 variants, with a positive hit rate of 50%, and a recovery of 4 out of 7 actives, or 57%.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingown dataTypical standard deviations among triplicate model leg FEP calculations were 0.02-0.03 kcal/mol, indicating good convergence among replicates.
“Typical standard deviations were on the order of 0.02–0.03 kcal/mol, indicating good convergence among the replicates.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationFEP+ has been demonstrated to calculate protein residue pKa values and free energies between different receptor conformations with high accuracy.
“FEP+ has been demonstrated to calculate both protein residue pKa values and free energies between different receptor conformations with high accuracy [37,38].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningFor mutation of any non-contact residue to yield a binding ΔΔG significantly different from zero requires conformational rearrangement, and accurate simulation would need sampling beyond the standard FEP+ workflow, making such cases not typically suitable for standard protocols.
“More generally, for mutation of any non-contact residue in a crystal structure to yield a binding ΔΔG significantly different from zero essentially requires some conformational rearrangement, either in the unbound form, the bound form, or both. Accurate simulation of such conformational changes would necessitate sampling beyond what is achievable in the standard protein binding FEP+ workflow, thus”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Interpretationnone givenThe preferred protonation states of titratable residues may differ between the bound protein-protein complex and the unbound protein in solution.
“The preferred protonation states of these titratable residues might differ between the relevant physical macrostates, namely the bound protein-protein complex and the unbound protein in solution.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningFor 1DVF B:E98A, the antibody Fv must retain or adopt the binding-competent crystal conformation to bind antigen, but the unbound mutant Fv would relax to a lower-energy conformation to alleviate the buried charge at the VH−VL interface, which was not sampled on the simulation timescale.
“Conversely, for 1DVF B:E98A (which was the only example among these cases with a negative signed error), the antibody Fv must retain or adopt the binding-competent conformation observed in the crystal structure in order to bind the antigen, but in order to alleviate the buried charge at the VH−VL interface, the unbound antibody Fv region in the physical system would readily relax to a lower-energy”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataFor a majority of mutations from a variety of systems, protein binding FEP+ calculations can produce accurate results and may provide insight suitable for guiding the experimental component of biologics design projects.
“In summary, the results presented here demonstrate that, for a majority of mutations from a variety of systems, protein binding FEP+ calculations are able to produce accurate results and may provide insight suitable for guiding the experimental component of biologics design projects.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The benchmark dataset is representative of protein-protein complex mutations encountered in biologics design.
May combine two claims.
PremisereasoningThe default OPLS4 force field used in FEP+ calculations uses fixed charges only and cannot account for π-based interactions resulting from induced polarization.
“The current default OPLS4 force field used in FEP+ calculations uses fixed charges only. This leaves it unable to account for π-based interactions, which result from induced polarization upon movement of electronic negative charge relative to the atomic nuclei.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningOne reason proline is challenging may be that binding FEP requires two different protein contexts in the solvent and complex legs, whereas stability calculations have a linear peptide in the unbound solvent leg with fewer degrees of freedom and greater likelihood of adequate conformational sampling.
“One reason may be that the solvent and complex legs of binding FEP calculations necessitate two different protein contexts, whereas stability calculations have a linear peptide in the unbound solvent leg with far fewer degrees of freedom and therefore a greater likelihood of achieving adequate sampling of conformational space, similarly to the unbound ligand in a small molecule FEP calculation.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe lack of explicit π interaction treatment has two effects: π interaction energetics do not contribute to FEP+ reported energies, and the lack of stabilization could increase sampling of less relevant conformations, adding energetic noise.
“The effect here is twofold: first, the energetics of the interactions do not contribute to the energies reported by FEP+ calculations; and second, the lack of explicit stabilization of these interactions in simulation could lead to increased sampling of less relevant conformations, thereby adding energetic noise to the results.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataThe automatic probable outlier flagging and empirical correction script may serve to prioritize FEP+ results, allowing unflagged or corrected cases to be treated as higher confidence and used more directly in downstream experimental validation.
“The automatic probable outlier flagging and empirical correction script may serve as a means of prioritizing FEP+ results, such that unflagged or corrected cases may be treated as higher confidence and used more directly as input to a downstream experimental validation pipeline.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationProtein reorganization FEP has been applied successfully to account for loop conformation changes in absolute binding FEP calculations with protein-ligand complexes.
“Specifically, protein reorganization FEP has been applied successfully to account for changes in loop conformation in absolute binding FEP calculations with protein-ligand complexes [38].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [38] source
The paper relies on this without support.
Experimental binding affinity values from ITC or SPR are accurate enough to serve as ground truth for assessing FEP+ prediction error.
“To increase the reliability of the experimental values, we limited the dataset to include only measurements made by isothermal calorimetry (ITC) or surface plasmon resonance (SPR).”
The paper relies on this without support.
The PDB crystal structures used as starting models accurately represent the relevant experimental protein-protein complexes.
“using all-atom structural models derived from the structures deposited with the RCSB Protein Data Bank (PDB), and prepared as described in the Methods section”
The paper relies on this without support.
The initial protonation states assigned to titratable residues in the prepared models are appropriate for the experimental pH.
“including the addition of hydrogen atoms and assignment of protonation states expected to be dominant in the bound complex at the pH of the experimental measurements.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The experimental binding affinities used as reference are accurate enough to evaluate the FEP+ predictions.
“For comparison to FEP-calculated binding free energies, experimental binding affinities (KD) were converted to ΔG values (in kcal/mol) via the standard relation”
“The experimental dataset included SPR measurements for wt and single-residue mutation variants for two antibody-antigen systems and one peptide-target system.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The benchmark dataset is representative of protein-protein complex mutations encountered in biologics design.
“Here, we have presented results from protein binding FEP+ calculations for a benchmark dataset with a variety of systems.”
“In summary, the results presented here demonstrate that, for a majority of mutations from a variety of systems, protein binding FEP+ calculations are able to produce accurate results”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Different residue numbers are given for the same outlier
MinorThe outlier is identified as mutation D:H33A, but the description calls the wild-type residue D:His55. The same account later identifies the starting conformation as D:His33, so the residue number is inconsistent.
“In the 1DVF D:H33A case (expt. +1.86, pred. −0.26), which is presented in more detail in Supplemental Figure 3, the geometry of the wt D:His55 residue (modeled as HIP)”
“This result suggests the starting conformation of D:His33 may be the result of a modeling error in the original crystal structure”
Force-field outlier has conflicting figure references
MinorThe force-field outlier is assigned to Figure 4(g) in Results but to Figure 4(e) in Discussion. Results assigns Figure 4(e) to a different outlier class involving starting conformations.
“As depicted in Figure 4(g), the π interaction in question”
“Our analysis of the 1JRH I:N53A outlier case, which disrupts a well-defined π-hydrogen bond (Figure 4(e)), demonstrated marked improvement with a developmental force field with explicit polarization.”
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Clark, A. J., Gindin, T., Zhang, B., Wang, L., Abel, R., Murret, C. S., Xu, F., Bao, A., Lu, N. J., Zhou, T., et al. (2017) · Journal of Molecular Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jmb.2016.11.021 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
Self-citationClark, A. J., Negron, C., Hauser, K., Sun, M., Wang, L., Abel, R., & Friesner, R. A. (2019) · Journal of Molecular Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jmb.2019.02.003 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Self-citationCosmanescu, F., Katsamba, P. S., Sergeeva, A. P., Ahlsen, G., Patel, S. D., Brewer, J. J., Tan, L., Xu, S., Xiao, Q., Nagarkar-Jaiswal, S., et al. (2018) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2018.10.046 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Self-citationImproving the Accuracy of Protein Thermostability Predictions for Single Point Mutations
Duan, J., Lupyan, D., & Wang, L. (2020) · Biophysical Journal · doi:10.1016/j.bpj.2020.05.020 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Self-citationde Oliveira, C. A. F., Yu, H. S., Chen, W., Abel, R., & Wang, L. (2018) · Journal of Chemical Theory and Computation · doi:10.1021/acs.jctc.8b00826 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Self-citationA protein tertiary structure mimetic modulator of the Hippo signalling pathway
Adihou, H., Gopalakrishnan, R., Förster, T., Guéret, S. M., Gasper, R., Geschwindner, S., Carrillo García, C., Karatas, H., Pobbati, A. V., Vazquez‐Chantada, M., et al. (2020) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-19224-8 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Self-citationAllaire, J., Teague, C., Xie, Y., & Dervieux, C. (2022) · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) · doi:10.5281/zenodo.5960047 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Design and engineering of deimmunized biotherapeutics
Griswold, K. E., & Bailey‐Kellogg, C. (2016) · Current Opinion in Structural Biology · doi:10.1016/j.sbi.2016.06.003 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Improving efficiency of large time-scale molecular dynamics simulations of hydrogen-rich systems
Feenstra, K. A., Hess, B., & Berendsen, H. J. C. (1999) · Journal of Computational Chemistry · doi:10.1002/(sici)1096-987x(199906)20:8 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Free energy perturbation calculations of the thermodynamics of protein side-chain mutations
Steinbrecher, T., Abel, R., Clark, A., & Friesner, R. (2017) · Journal of Molecular Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jmb.2017.03.002 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Self-citationDIP/Dpr interactions and the evolutionary design of specificity in protein families
Sergeeva, A. P., Katsamba, P. S., Cosmanescu, F., Brewer, J. J., Ahlsen, G., Mannepalli, S., Shapiro, L., & Honig, B. (2020) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-15981-8 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Self-citationScarabelli, G., Oloo, E. O., Maier, J. K. X., & Rodriguez-Granillo, A. (2022) · Journal of Molecular Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jmb.2021.167375 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Site‐directed analysis on protein hydrophobicity
Chong, S., & Ham, S. (2014) · Journal of Computational Chemistry · doi:10.1002/jcc.23631 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Coskun, D., Chen, W., Clark, A. J., Lu, C., Harder, E. D., Wang, L., Friesner, R. A., & Miller, E. B. (2022) · Journal of Chemical Theory and Computation · doi:10.1021/acs.jctc.2c00954 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Self-citationFree energy perturbation calculations of mutation effects on SARS-CoV-2 RBD::ACE2 binding affinity
Sergeeva, A. P., Katsamba, P. S., Liao, J., Sampson, J. M., Bahna, F., Mannepalli, S., Morano, N. C., Shapiro, L., Friesner, R. A., & Honig, B. (2023) · Journal of Molecular Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jmb.2023.168187 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Self-citationStructural and Functional Characterization of an Agonistic Anti-Human EphA2 Monoclonal Antibody
Peng, L., Oganesyan, V., Damschroder, M. M., et al. (2011) · Journal of Molecular Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jmb.2011.08.018 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Yeast display biopanning identifies human antibodies targeting glioblastoma stem-like cells
Zorniak, M., Clark, P. A., Umlauf, B. J., Cho, Y. K., Shusta, E. V., & Kuo, J. S. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-017-16066-1 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Quantitatively accounting for protein reorganization in computer-aided drug design
Fajer, M., Borrelli, K., Abel, R., & Wang, L. (2023) · Journal of Chemical Theory and Computation · doi:10.1021/acs.jctc.3c00009 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Self-citationSpooner, J., Keen, J. W. M., Nayyar, K., et al. (2015) · Biotechnology and Bioengineering · doi:10.1002/bit.25550 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Self-citationPearlstein, R. A., McKay, D. J., Horn̆ák, V., Dickson, C. J., Golosov, A. A., Harrison, T., Velez‐Vega, C., & Duca, J. S. (2017) · Current Topics in Medicinal Chemistry · doi:10.2174/1568026617666170414152311 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Haufe, Y., Kuruva, V., Samanani, Z., Lokaj, G., Kamnesky, G., Shadamarshan, P., Shahoei, R., Katz, D., Sampson, J. M., Pusch, M., et al. (2023) · ACS Chemical Neuroscience · doi:10.1021/acschemneuro.3c00506 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Self-citationZou, W., Huang, C., Sun, Q., et al. (2021) · 3 Biotech · doi:10.1007/s13205-021-03079-x · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 60 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- Allaire, 2022, Quarto
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Zhai, S., Zhao, H., Wang, J., Lin, S., Liu, T., Gu, S., Jiang, D., Liu, H., Kang, Y., Yao, X., et al. (2025) · Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling · doi:10.1021/acs.jcim.5c01084 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Improving p K a Predictions with Reparameterized Force Fields and Free Energy Calculations
Wilson, C. J., Gapsys, V., & de Groot, B. L. (2025) · Journal of Chemical Theory and Computation · doi:10.1021/acs.jctc.5c00031 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Smorodina, E., Ali, M., Kropivšek, K., Salicari, L., Miklavc, S., Kappassov, A., Fu, C., Sormanni, P., de Marco, A., & Greiff, V. (2026) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.64898/2026.03.02.709004 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Predicting Resistance to Small Molecule Kinase Inhibitors
Nagarajan, A., Amberg-Johnson, K., Paull, E., Huang, K., Ghanakota, P., Chandrasinghe, A., Elk, J. C., Sampson, J. M., Wang, L., Abel, R., et al. (2025) · Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling · doi:10.1021/acs.jcim.4c02313 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Self-citationParkinson, J., Hard, R. L., Ko, Y. S., & Wang, W. (2025) · Advanced Science · doi:10.1002/advs.202504350 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Knight, J. L., Clark, A. J., Wang, J., Placzek, A., Bos, P. H., Bhat, S., Bell, J. A., Silvergleid, S., Yin, W., Gray, F. L. V., et al. (2025) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-62722-w · Cited by 7 · see citing works
“…for over 200 single-point mutations in protein-protein complexes con fi rmed that the relative binding free energy changes for most protein mutations were correctly predicted within ~1kcal/mol 19 , which is suf fi ciently accurate to positively impact decision-making in drug discovery projects.”
More Structure, Less Accuracy: ESM3’s Binding Prediction ParadoxPreprint
Loux, T., Wang, D. I. C., & Shakhnovich, E. I. (2024) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2024.12.09.627585 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Konnektor: A Framework for Using Graph Theory to Plan Networks for Free Energy Calculations
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Unlocking the undruggable spliceosome: generative AI and structural dynamics in cancer therapy
Steuer, J., & Kahraman, A. (2026) · Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology · doi:10.3389/fcell.2026.1774239 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
“By physically transforming one ligand into another along a non-physical pathway, these methods calculate relative binding free energies with high accuracy (Ross et al., 2023; Sampson et al., 2024).”
Accurate Prediction of Drug Resistance for Intrinsically Disordered Protein Regions
Kalpokas, A., Mackey, M. D., & Michel, J. (2025) · Journal of Chemical Theory and Computation · doi:10.1021/acs.jctc.5c01648 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Knight, J. L., Clark, A. J., Wang, J., et al. (2024) · ChemRxiv · doi:10.26434/chemrxiv-2024-h9htk · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Sampson, J. M., Sergeeva, A. P., Gao, T., Kwon, Y. D., Reddem, E., Bahna, F. A., Mannepalli, S. M., Zhang, B., Kwong, P. D., Shapiro, L. S., et al. (2026) · Journal of Molecular Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jmb.2026.169982
Self-citationIn Silico Design of High-Affinity Antibody VRC34.01 for HIV-1 Fusion Peptide Recognition
Feng, M., Wang, N., Song, Y., et al. (2026) · The Journal of Physical Chemistry B · doi:10.1021/acs.jpcb.6c03661
MAHLER: Integrating Metadynamics and Inverse Folding to Predict Antibody-Antigen KineticsPreprint
Teng, D., Pitman, M., Jha, P. K., Sood, A., Rufa, D. A., Ryczko, K., Bortolato, A., & Tiwary, P. (2026) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.64898/2026.06.10.731383
Therrien, É., Feng, S., Amberg-Johnson, K., et al. (2026) · ACS Medicinal Chemistry Letters · doi:10.1021/acsmedchemlett.6c00158
Sampson, J. M., Sergeeva, A. P., Gao, T., et al. (2026) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.64898/2026.04.28.721095
Self-citationThe prevalence of protein misfolding as a mechanism for hereditary deafnessPreprint
Gogal, R. A., Cox, G. M., Kolbe, D. L., et al. (2026) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.64898/2026.03.09.710547
Prediction of Protein–Ligand Binding Affinities Using Atomic Surface Site Interaction Points
Zator, K. J., Storer, M. C., & Hunter, C. A. (2026) · Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling · doi:10.1021/acs.jcim.5c02628
Antibody Affinity Maturation by Computational Design
Abualrous, E. T., Miller, W., & Cannon, D. A. (2026) · Methods in molecular biology · doi:10.1007/978-1-0716-5041-7_4
Self-citationInvestigating Errors in Alchemical Free Energy Predictions Using Random Forest Models and GaMD
Sastry, S., & Kim, M. T.-J. (2025) · Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling · doi:10.1021/acs.jcim.5c01135 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Free energy simulations to quantitatively study biomolecule stability and binding
Behera, S., Wilson, C. J., Schmidt, L., et al. (2025) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-323-99507-8.00039-1
- Authors
- Sampson, J. M., Cannon, D. A., Duan, J., Epstein, J. C. K., Sergeeva, A. P., Katsamba, P. S., Mannepalli, S. M., Bahna, F. A., Adihou, H., Guéret, S. M., Gopalakrishnan, R., Geschwindner, S., Rees, D. G., Sigurdardottir, A., Wilkinson, T., Dodd, R. B., De Maria, L., Mobarec, J. C., Shapiro, L., Honig, B., Buchanan, A., Friesner, R. A., & Wang, L.
- Affiliations
- Schrodinger (United States) (US)
- Columbia University (US)
- Mortimer B. Zuckerman Mind Brain Behavior Institute (US)
- Max Planck Institute of Molecular Physiology (DE)
- AstraZeneca (Sweden) (SE)
- AstraZeneca (United Kingdom) (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Friesner, Richard A.
- Wang, Lingle
- ORCID
- Sampson, Jared M.
- Cannon, Daniel A.
- Epstein, Jordan C.K.
- Sergeeva, Alina P.
- Katsamba, Phinikoula S.
- Adihou, Hélène
- Guéret, Stéphanie M.
- Gopalakrishnan, Ranganath
- Geschwindner, Stefan
- Rees, D. Gareth
- Sigurdardottir, Anna
- Wilkinson, Trevor
- Dodd, Roger B.
- Mobarec, Juan Carlos
- Shapiro, Lawrence
- Honig, Barry
- Buchanan, Andrew
- Friesner, Richard A.
- Wang, Lingle
- Venue
- Journal of Molecular Biology
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2024-08
- Volume
- 436
- Issue
- 16
- Pages
- 168640
- ISSN
- 0022-2836 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC11339910
- OpenAlex
- W4399356565
- Cited by
- 24
- References
- 60
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 3 · 2022: 1
- FWCI
- 3.12
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
- www.elsevier.com/legal/tdmrep-license (tdm)
- www.elsevier.com/open-access/userlicense/1.0/ (am, 324 d)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-017 (stm-asf)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-037 (stm-asf)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-012 (stm-asf)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-029 (stm-asf)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-004 (stm-asf)
- Locations
- Journal of Molecular Biology (acceptedVersion)
- bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (R35-GM139585)
- Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-016167)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Molecular Biology › Protein Structure and Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Computational Theory and Mathematics › Computational Drug Discovery Methods
- Physical Sciences › Chemistry › Physical and Theoretical Chemistry › thermodynamics and calorimetric analyses
- Keywords
- protein-protein binding affinity, point mutations, free energy perturbation, FEP, protonation states, benchmarking, outlier detection, protein design, binding free energy
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-09-28.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-09-28.
Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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