Modeling and predicting osteoarthritis progression: data from the osteoarthritis initiative
Open accessAbstract
Objective The goal of this study was to model the longitudinal progression of knee osteoarthritis (OA) and build a prognostic tool that uses data collected in 1 year to predict disease progression over 8 years. Design To model OA progression, we used a mixed-effects mixture model and 8-year data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI)-specifically, joint space width measurements from X-rays and pain scores from the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) questionnaire. We included 1243 subjects who at enrollment were classified as being at high risk of developing OA based on age, body mass index (BMI), and medical and occupational histories. After clustering subjects based on radiographic and pain progression, we used clinical variables collected within the first year to build least absolute shrinkage and selection (LASSO) regression models for predicting the probabilities of belonging to each cluster. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) represent predictive performance on held-out data. Results Based on joint space narrowing, subjects clustered as progressing or non-progressing. Based on pain scores, they clustered as stable, improving, or worsening. Radiographic progression could be predicted with high accuracy (AUC = .86) using data from two visits spanning 1 year, whereas pain progression could be predicted with high accuracy (AUC = .95) using data from a single visit. Joint space narrowing and pain progression were not associated. Conclusion Statistical models for characterizing and predicting OA progression promise to improve clinical trial design and OA prevention efforts in the future.
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Radiomics can transform imaging into high-dimensional data capturing subtle patterns in joint structures such as subchondral bone.
“Through image acquisition, preprocessing, region of interest (ROI) segmentation, feature extraction (first-order statistical, shape-based, second-order texture via GLCM/GLRLM, higher-order filtered features), feature selection, and model development, radiomics can essentially help transform imaging into high-dimensional data, capturing subtle patterns in joint structures like subchondral bone [79,”
From Biomarker-Guided Imaging and AI-Augmented Diagnosis of Degenerative Joint Disease (2025) · cites this paper as [81]
The Discussion mentions subchondral bone sclerosis and the potential of MRI-derived imaging biomarkers, but it does not describe radiomics transforming images into high-dimensional features. Searches for radiomics, texture features, and high-dimensional imaging data found no passage addressing that process. (LLM, conf=0.75)
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- Authors
- Halilaj, E., Le, Y., Hicks, J. L., Hastie, T. J., & Delp, S. L.
- Affiliations
- Stanford University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Halilaj, E.
- Venue
- Osteoarthritis and Cartilage
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2018-12
- Volume
- 26
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 1643-1650
- ISSN
- 1063-4584 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC6469859
- OpenAlex
- W2886199651
- Cited by
- 95
- References
- 32
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 13 · 2021: 18 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 7
- FWCI
- 7.47
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Osteoarthritis and Cartilage (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (U54EB020405)
- NIH (N01-AR-2-2258, N01-AR-2-2259, N01-AR-2-2260, N01-AR-2-2261, N01-AR-2-2262)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Rheumatology › Osteoarthritis Treatment and Mechanisms
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pharmacology › Musculoskeletal pain and rehabilitation
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Hip disorders and treatments
- Keywords
- knee osteoarthritis, disease progression, prognostic model, joint space narrowing, radiographic progression, pain progression, WOMAC, LASSO, clustering, Osteoarthritis Initiative, high-risk subjects, clinical trial design
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Middle Aged, Pain, Pain Measurement, Predictive Value of Tests, Prognosis, Radiography, Severity of Illness Index, Models, Statistical, Cluster Analysis, Disease Progression, Osteoarthritis, Knee
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