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The effects of low income housing tax credit developments on neighborhoods
Open accessAbstract
This paper evaluates the impacts of new housing developments funded with the Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC), the largest federal project based housing program in the U.S., on the neighborhoods in which they are built. A discontinuity in the formula determining the magnitude of tax credits as a function of neighborhood characteristics generates pseudo-random assignment in the number of low income housing units built in similar sets of census tracts. Tracts where projects are awarded 30 percent higher tax credits receive approximately six more low income housing units on a base of seven units per tract. These additional new low income developments cause homeowner turnover to rise, raise property values in declining areas and reduce incomes in gentrifying areas in neighborhoods near the 30th percentile of the income distribution. LIHTC units significantly crowd out nearby new rental construction in gentrifying areas but do not displace new construction in stable or declining areas.
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TL;DR
This paper uses a regression discontinuity at the Qualified Census Tract threshold to estimate effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit developments on neighborhoods. It finds higher owner turnover, lower median incomes especially in gentrifying areas, higher home values in declining/stable areas, and modest crowd-out of nearby rental construction.
Key findings
- Tracts just above the QCT threshold receive about 6 additional LIHTC units on a base of 7 units per tract between 1994 and 1999, driven by the 30 percent higher tax credits.
- Each additional 100 LIHTC units causes a 5.9 percentage point increase in the fraction of owners moving into a block group between 1995 and 2000, and reduces median household income by 9.3 percent overall and by 21.5 percent in gentrifying areas.
- Each additional 100 LIHTC units raises median home values by 14.9 percent overall, with effects of 10.6 percent in stable areas and 5.6 percent in gentrifying areas.
- Each LIHTC unit increases newly built rental units within 1 km by 0.80, with no effect on owner-occupied units; in gentrifying areas each LIHTC unit increases new rental construction by only 0.37 units, implying substantial crowd-out.
Methods
- Regression discontinuity design exploiting the 50 percent eligible-household cutoff for Qualified Census Tract status, which gives projects 30 percent higher tax credits and generates pseudo-random variation in LIHTC units.
- Data include HUD LIHTC projects placed in service 1987–2005, focusing on 1994–1999 metropolitan projects, merged with 1980, 1990, and 2000 census tract and block group data; applications data cover California, Texas, and New Jersey in 2004–2005.
- Analysis uses tract-level and 1 km ring-level first-stage and reduced-form/IV estimates, instrumenting LIHTC units with QCT status or the number of blocks in qualified tracts, controlling for cubic control functions, county fixed effects, and demographic/housing characteristics.
Limitations
- The paper states that the RD design supports causal statements only for areas that are fairly poor but not extremely poor near the QCT threshold, and that treatment effects may differ by neighborhood composition and developer incentives.
- The paper states missing data concerns: project location is missing for 9.5 percent of projects and unit counts for 4.9 percent; only placed-in-service projects are observed, and applications data are limited to California, Texas, and New Jersey in 2004–2005.
- The paper states crowd-out estimates may overstate effects because about 70 percent of exogenous LIHTC units are new construction while the rest are rehabilitations, and may understate crowd-out because units built 1994–1999 are compared with outcomes for 1995–1999; separate declining-area estimates are not reported due to a marginally significant first stage.
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77 Own result · 24 Own method · 24 Own interpretation · 20 No basis given · 3 Sources not found · 3 Not checked yet · 1 No full text of the sources
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In the paper
“However, in gentrifying areas there appears to be significant crowd-out of private construction, as each additional LIHTC unit is only associated with 0.37 newly constructed rental units overall.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 1 Introduction
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In the paper
“We also find greater turnover among renters, as the fraction of renters entering the area is 0.8 percentage points higher for each 100 additional low-income units.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
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In the paper
“Overall, each new LIHTC unit increases the number of recently built rental units by 0.8 units within one kilometer of the project site”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 1 Introduction
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In the paper
“In stable block groups, we find very little crowd-out of new rental unit construction, as we obtain an IV coefficient LIHTC units in the full specification of 0.99.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.2 Impacts on Local Construction
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In the paper
“First, the adverse effects of LIHTC units on median block group income seem concentrated in gentrifying block groups.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
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In the paper
“Summary statistics in Table 3 show that neighborhoods near the QCT eligibility threshold are somewhat though not extremely poor.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 4 Data > 4.1 Summary statistics
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In the paper
“while we find no effect for owner occupied units.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 1 Introduction
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In the paper
“This response of LIHTC units comes in part because qualified tracts received 0.06 more projects conditional on the control function and in part because projects in qualified tracts had 19 additional units on average.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.1 Tract Level Estimates
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- The authors state this as an assumption: Unobserved tract characteristics that influence outcomes of interest do not vary discontinuously across the QCT eligibility threshold.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Each additional LIHTC unit within a 1 km ring is associated with 0.53 new rental units in that same ring.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.2 Impacts on Local Construction
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In the paper
“Based on evidence that the quantity of owner occupied units changed little in response to LIHTC units nearby, we interpret our estimates as capturing shifts in the demand for living in neighborhoods with LIHTC developments.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes
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In the paper
“Interestingly, each 100 additional LIHTC units are associated with both a decline in median income of 0.8 percent and with an increase in home prices of 1.1 percent.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
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In the paper
“We estimate that tracts designated as QCTs see an additional 4 accepted units.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.2 Evidence from Applications Data
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In the paper
“Further, new LIHTC units impart a positive amenity effect as they lead to higher housing values in declining and stable neighborhoods.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 7 Conclusions
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In the paper
“This tax credit bonus generates more LIHTC projects in census tracts just above the eligibility threshold than those tracts just below.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 1 Introduction
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In the paper
“This coefficient is similar in magnitude to that estimated in Table 4 Panel A, though in this case it is not statistically significant.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.2 Evidence from Applications Data
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In the paper
“We find that LIHTC developments significantly increase turnover of owner-occupied households within 1 km.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes
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In the paper
“We exploit a discontinuity in the size of the tax credit received by developers as a function of location and find that a thirty percent increase in the tax credit leads to six additional LIHTC units constructed on a base of seven units per census tract.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 7 Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: Unobserved tract characteristics that influence outcomes of interest do not vary discontinuously across the QCT eligibility threshold.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We estimate that each additional 100 LIHTC units within 1 km of a block group centroid reduces median income by 21.5 percent in gentrifying areas.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
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In the paper
“Much of the higher estimated number of units is due to more proposed projects, as QCT tracts receive 0.15 more applications.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.2 Evidence from Applications Data
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In the paper
“Gentrifying areas received more units as a result of the extra tax credit than did declining and stable areas.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.3 Ring Level First Stage Results
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In the paper
“The discontinuity in LIHTC units as a fraction of the 1990 rental housing stock is estimated to be 0.01 and the estimated discontinuity in new projects is 0.05.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.1 Tract Level Estimates
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In the paper
“Interestingly, each additional LIHTC unit is also associated with 0.09 additional owner-occupied units.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.2 Impacts on Local Construction
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In the paper
“As implied by results in Panels A and B, estimated discontinuities at the QCT threshold are small and statistically insignificant for each measure of the local supply of rehab housing.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.1 Tract Level Estimates
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In the paper
“In addition, we provide evidence that developers differentially select gentrifying neighborhoods as locations for their developments, a fact that to our knowledge has not been previously considered in the literature.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 1 Introduction
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In the paper
“In the areas above the 50 percent cutoff, the market rate was below the regulated rent for 82 percent of apartments rented in 2000, up from 76 percent in 1990.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 2 The LIHTC Program
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In the paper
“In gentrifying areas, however, there is little or no effect of LIHTC units on housing values.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 7 Conclusions
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In the paper
“Summary statistics measured in 1990 are reported in the next section and indicate little evidence of sorting on observables near the qualified threshold.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 3 Empirical Approach > 3.2 Identification
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In the paper
“This response of LIHTC units comes in part because qualified tracts received 0.06 more projects conditional on the control function and in part because projects in qualified tracts had 19 additional units on average.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.1 Tract Level Estimates
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- The authors state this as an assumption: Unobserved tract characteristics that influence outcomes of interest do not vary discontinuously across the QCT eligibility threshold.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We find that each additional LIHTC unit constructed between 1994 and 1999 increases the total number of rental units built during this time by 0.80, which is greater than the OLS estimate of 0.53.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.2 Impacts on Local Construction
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“The average fraction of owners moving between 1995 and 2000 in census tracts with between 40 and 60 percent eligible households is 0.27, which suggests that the estimated effect of LIHTC units on owner turnover is large.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
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In the paper
“but do not displace new construction in stable or declining areas.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > Abstract
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In the paper
“Tracts where projects are awarded 30 percent higher tax credits receive approximately six more low income housing units on a base of seven units per tract.”
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · plain
“Census tracts just above the QCT threshold receive on average an additional six LIHTC units on a base of seven units per tract between 1994 and 1999 relative to tracts just below the threshold.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > Abstract
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- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · plain
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In the paper
“Adding additional tract controls from the 2000 census changes the coefficient only slightly to 18.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.2 Evidence from Applications Data
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In the paper
“Only the coefficient on units per project changes markedly.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.1 Tract Level Estimates
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In the paper
“We also find a significant effect for the number of proposed LIHTC units as a fraction of 2000 tract rental units.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.2 Evidence from Applications Data
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“We find that every additional 100 units is estimated to reduce median income by 9.3 percent.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“The discontinuity in LIHTC units as a fraction of the 1990 rental housing stock is estimated to be 0.01 and the estimated discontinuity in new projects is 0.05.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.1 Tract Level Estimates
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Interestingly, each 100 additional LIHTC units are associated with both a decline in median income of 0.8 percent and with an increase in home prices of 1.1 percent.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“We estimate that an additional 100 units leads to a 5.9 percentage point increase in the fraction of owners entering a block group between 1995 and 2000, considerably larger than the OLS estimate of 0.9 percentage points.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“The fact that about 70 percent of exogenous LIHTC units are new construction indicates that the true crowd out effects on rental units could be up to 30 percentage points smaller than those implied by our reported estimates.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.2 Impacts on Local Construction
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In the paper
“Conversely, the relationship between LIHTC units and new owner occupied units does not seem to depend on preexisting trends in housing values.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.2 Impacts on Local Construction
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Finally, median home values increase by 14.9 percent in response to each 100 units placed in service.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We estimate that tracts just above the QCT threshold receive 6.0 more units per tract relative to tracts below the threshold.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.1 Tract Level Estimates
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Unobserved tract characteristics that influence outcomes of interest do not vary discontinuously across the QCT eligibility threshold.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Consistent with this finding, the positive effects of LIHTC units on housing values are concentrated in declining areas.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For newly entering owners and renters, and for the change in log median household income and log median housing values, the effects of LIHTC units in stable neighborhoods are estimated to be similar to the full sample.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“QCT tracts receive proposals for an extra 17 units on average, controlling for only the cubic control functions.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.2 Evidence from Applications Data
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: In 2003 the QCT criterion was expanded to allow tracts with a poverty rate exceeding 25 percent to qualify as QCTs.
- The authors state this as an assumption: If all profitable projects are proposed, then the response of proposed units to QCT designation yields the supply response of LIHTC units to higher anticipated tax credits.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Finally, we show that LIHTC units modestly crowd out rental construction, as each LIHTC unit leads to 0.8 more new rental units nearby.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 7 Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Each qualified block is associated with 0.30 additional units.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.3 Ring Level First Stage Results
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While we find significantly positive effects of LIHTC on entry of new renters in the OLS results, the IV results yield negative and statistically insignificant effects of LIHTC units.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The discontinuity for units and projects is significant, supporting the claim that the jump between the 45-50 and 50-55 percent eligible bins is due to QCT status.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 4 Data > 4.1 Summary statistics
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Unobserved tract characteristics that influence outcomes of interest do not vary discontinuously across the QCT eligibility threshold.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the second row, we include the full array of controls, and obtain an estimated coefficient of 0.28.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.3 Ring Level First Stage Results
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Each additional 100 LIHTC units is associated with an increase of the share of owners that moved into their homes between 1995 and 2000 of 0.9 percentage points.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This indicates that the amenity affect of LIHTC units may be stronger in less desirable neighborhoods.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Given this evidence and the fact that such sorting appears implausible, we believe it is reasonable to take a tract’s qualified status as exogenous conditional on f(ei).”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 3 Empirical Approach > 3.2 Identification
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: There are no unobservables that influence an outcome of interest and are correlated with QCT status, conditional on controls including the interacted polynomial f(e).
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is important to realize that this shift in the composition of neighborhood population does not appear to be due in large part to the tenants in LIHTC projects.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This estimator also purges any bias arising from selection due to missing project level data from the estimate of β1.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 3 Empirical Approach > 3.1 Basic Empirical Model
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
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- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Failure to account for this selection may lead to faulty conclusions about the impact of these developments on several important outcomes of interest.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 1 Introduction
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“On the other hand, the fact that we use LIHTC units built 1994-1999 yet the outcome is for 1995-1999 would cause us to understate crowd-out by up to 17 percentage points.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.2 Impacts on Local Construction
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If developers select into gentrifying neighborhoods, OLS estimates should overstate crowd-out, or be biased downwards, as these are areas where LIHTC subsidies may allow LIHTC developers to outbid private developers for the right to build on limited available land.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.2 Impacts on Local Construction
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If the process that generates the response of y to x operates as a function of distance, tract level regressions may provide inconsistent estimates of the response because not all census tracts are the same size.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 3 Empirical Approach > 3.3 Generalizing The Geography
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Casual inspection of the raw data and RD coefficients reveals that most demographic and housing characteristics do not vary significantly across the QCT threshold.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 4 Data > 4.1 Summary statistics
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Therefore, when the 1990 census was taken it was impossible to know which tracts would end up qualified and which tracts would not within a few percentage points of the 50 percent cutoff.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 3 Empirical Approach > 3.2 Identification
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The impact of the additional tax credit on this outcome is consistently estimated less precisely than the others at least in part because only the 9.6 percent of tracts that received projects are in the estimation sample for this outcome.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.1 Tract Level Estimates
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is important to recognize that because our exogenous variation in LIHTC units includes both new construction and rehabilitations, our estimates are likely to overstate crowd-out.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.2 Impacts on Local Construction
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Even these generous standard errors imply a strong first stage in most cases.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.3 Ring Level First Stage Results
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It appears that in many cases rent limits are not binding.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 2 The LIHTC Program
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We demonstrate below that controlling for a host of observables has little effect on the estimated parameters of interest.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 4 Data > 4.1 Summary statistics
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These results, combined with those in Panel A, suggest that the discontinuity in local supply we documented in Table 4 is at least in part due to a greater willingness by developers to locate projects in qualified tracts.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.2 Evidence from Applications Data
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Furthermore, even if some individuals or developers knew perfectly the composition of the relevant census tracts, the fact that the census only samples 15 percent of households for the long form introduces considerable sampling variation.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 3 Empirical Approach > 3.2 Identification
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As with the results for all projects, the estimated discontinuity in new LIHTC developments is not sensitive to the inclusion of controls for county fixed effects, demographics and housing characteristics.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.1 Tract Level Estimates
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The wide variation in tract sizes generates variation in the distances to projects within tracts akin to a measurement error problem.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 3 Empirical Approach > 3.3 Generalizing The Geography
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“States receive far greater tax credit allocation requests than they have federal allotments.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 2 The LIHTC Program
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These smaller estimated effects are consistent with the fact that the tax credit bonus is smaller for rehabilitations than it is for new construction.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.1 Tract Level Estimates
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These results suggest that the availability of the additional tax credit interacts with expectations about future housing values to generate higher expected profits for developers.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.3 Ring Level First Stage Results
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Estimating the specification described by (1) using OLS regression does not generally yield consistent estimates of β1 since the error term εi is unlikely to be orthogonal to the treatment xi.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 3 Empirical Approach > 3.1 Basic Empirical Model
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Based on evidence that the quantity of owner occupied units changed little in response to LIHTC units nearby, we interpret our estimates as capturing shifts in the demand for living in neighborhoods with LIHTC developments.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“QCT status was updated in 1993 using tabulations of the 1990 census.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 3 Empirical Approach > 3.2 Identification
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The cost of the regression discontinuity approach taken here is that without strong and probably unreasonable assumptions about the homogeneity of treatment effects as a function of neighborhood characteristics, we can only make causal statements about the impacts of low income housing developments on areas that are fairly poor, though not extremely poor.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 1 Introduction
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The discontinuity for units and projects is significant, supporting the claim that the jump between the 45-50 and 50-55 percent eligible bins is due to QCT status.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 4 Data > 4.1 Summary statistics
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Unobserved tract characteristics that influence outcomes of interest do not vary discontinuously across the QCT eligibility threshold.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By holding geography constant and measuring outcomes at the block group level rather than the tract level, this strategy makes more efficient use of available information.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 3 Empirical Approach > 3.3 Generalizing The Geography
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Since this level of clustering allows for a very general covariance structure, standard errors are likely to be overstated.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.3 Ring Level First Stage Results
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The fact that about 70 percent of exogenous LIHTC units are new construction indicates that the true crowd out effects on rental units could be up to 30 percentage points smaller than those implied by our reported estimates.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.2 Impacts on Local Construction
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The 1980 tract-level data allow us to establish pre-existing trends that we use to evaluate how estimated treatment effects differ by neighborhood growth and decline.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 4 Data
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is this type of neighborhood for which the exogenous variation in LIHTC developments allows us to estimate causal relationships between low income housing and outcomes of interest.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 4 Data > 4.1 Summary statistics
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Unobserved tract characteristics that influence outcomes of interest do not vary discontinuously across the QCT eligibility threshold.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Indeed, adding county fixed effects in column 3, tract demographic controls in column 4, and tract housing characteristics in column 5 generates little change in the estimated units and projects discontinuities.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.1 Tract Level Estimates
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The average fraction of owners moving between 1995 and 2000 in census tracts with between 40 and 60 percent eligible households is 0.27, which suggests that the estimated effect of LIHTC units on owner turnover is large.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“One drawback to the LIHTC data is that it only contains information on projects placed in service.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 4 Data
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This eligibility cutoff generates a discontinuity in the likelihood that projects located in a tract receive additional tax credits.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 3 Empirical Approach > 3.1 Basic Empirical Model
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- It may state two separate claims as one. 41
- Probably not a substantial claim. 30
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is evident that poorer tracts receive more LIHTC developments, with a sizable portion of the income-development gradient explained by QCT status.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 4 Data > 4.1 Summary statistics
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We find that the IV estimate for the effect on newly built owner occupied units to be −0.036, which is both statistically insignificant and smaller than the OLS estimate of 0.09.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.2 Impacts on Local Construction
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, the effect of LIHTC on the fraction of renters that entered within the past 5 years is estimated to be 0.011 in the stable sample, though only 0.005 in the gentrifying sample.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We also estimate positive but statistically insignificant effects of QCT status on the number of normalized accepted units and number of accepted projects.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.2 Evidence from Applications Data
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Splitting the sample instead on terciles of the 1990 housing value distributions within MSAs produces qualitatively similar results, though coefficients are measured with less precision.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We show that in the tracts below the 50 percent eligibility threshold, 67 percent of occupied rental apartments rented below LIHTC regulated rents in 2000. This increased substantially from 52 percent in 1990”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 2 The LIHTC Program
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the full specification, we estimate that 4 additional new units are built in QCTs just above the threshold, representing the majority of the 6 additional units of all types received by these tracts.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.1 Tract Level Estimates
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Unobserved tract characteristics that influence outcomes of interest do not vary discontinuously across the QCT eligibility threshold.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the gentrifying areas, we see evidence of substantial crowd-out. Each LIHTC unit in these areas only increases newly constructed housing by 0.37 units.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.2 Impacts on Local Construction
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“reduce incomes in gentrifying areas in neighborhoods near the 30th percentile of the income distribution.”
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · plain
“We also find that neighborhood income declines as a result of new LIHTC units nearby, and this effect is concentrated in gentrifying areas.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“raise property values in declining areas”
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · plain
“In addition, we find a positive effect of LIHTC units on neighborhood home values. Every 100 additional LIHTC units leads to a 14.9 percent increase in the median home value, though this effect is close to zero in gentrifying areas.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A block group with 100 additional nearby LIHTC units has 1.2 percent slower growth in income in stable areas and 0.7 percent slower growth in gentrifying areas.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The IV results for the full sample are in general of similar sign though larger in magnitude than the analogous OLS estimates.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These neighborhoods have an average poverty rate of approximately 25 percent, are about 30 percent black and have about 60 percent high school graduates.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 4 Data > 4.1 Summary statistics
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Each estimate except that for units per project is precise.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.1 Tract Level Estimates
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We find that LIHTC developments depress local median household income and increase turnover in owner occupied housing units within 1 km of these projects.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 7 Conclusions
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Overall, we find that an additional 100 LIHTC units raises the growth in median house values by 14.9 percent, though the estimated effect is 10.6 percent in stable areas and 5.6 percent in gentrifying areas.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In addition, we find that low income units in the neighborhood raise housing values, though this effect is concentrated in stable and declining neighborhoods.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Stable areas receive 0.31 additional newly constructed renter occupied units for each LIHTC unit built, and we obtain an estimate of 0.47 for gentrifying areas.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.2 Impacts on Local Construction
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Units per proposed project also seem to be higher in the tracts qualifying for higher tax credits, however this is imprecisely estimated.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.2 Evidence from Applications Data
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, there is no discernible trend in the size of projects.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 4 Data > 4.1 Summary statistics
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Local crowd out is stronger in gentrifying areas, as each LIHTC unit only increases new rental construction by an estimated 0.37 units in these areas.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 7 Conclusions
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Including the full set of controls, gentrifying areas show a first stage coefficient of 0.27 while declining neighborhoods show a first stage coefficient of 0.22.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.3 Ring Level First Stage Results
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The discontinuity in units per project is slightly larger for new construction, though it remains statistically insignificant.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.1 Tract Level Estimates
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The average tract with fewer than 40 percent eligible households has 84.9 units per project, while the average tract in the rest of the income distribution has between 60 and 70 units per project.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 4 Data > 4.1 Summary statistics
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The response of LIHTC units to QCT status seems driven by developers’ location choices rather than government preferences, as we find that the discontinuity in units at the threshold is driven by the number of applications by developers rather than state housing authorities’ acceptance rate of proposed projects.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 1 Introduction
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Graphs in Figure 2 exhibit noticeable discontinuities at the QCT eligibility threshold.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.1 Tract Level Estimates
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These additional new low income developments cause homeowner turnover to rise”
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · plain
“We show that owner turnover rates are significantly higher near new LIHTC projects. On average, 100 additional LIHTC units causes a 5.9 percentage point increase in the fraction of owners moving to the neighborhood between 1995 and 2000.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Median household income is again found to be lower as a result of LIHTC units, and the effect is significantly stronger in the IV results.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“An essential element required to make convincing empirical progress on both topics is some sort of random variation of people across neighborhoods.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 1 Introduction
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Incorporating information from surrounding tracts may also improve efficiency by making use of more potential identifying information.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 3 Empirical Approach > 3.3 Generalizing The Geography
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“An observed project is one that was both proposed and selected by a state housing authority.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 4 Data
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Importantly, there are not discontinuities in housing values, pre-existing trends of housing values, or median household incomes.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 4 Data > 4.1 Summary statistics
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Therefore, we find at least 20 percent crowd out of LIHTC units within 1 km in radius, and this crowd out effect is overstated using OLS estimates.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.2 Impacts on Local Construction
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Annual rents on these units cannot exceed 30 percent of the relevant income limit.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 2 The LIHTC Program
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This marked increased churn rate due to low income units is consistent with LIHTC projects inducing a downward shift in neighborhood desirability that is not fully reflected from the OLS results because developers select into gentrifying neighborhoods.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A census tract counts as qualified if 50% of its households have incomes below 60% of AMGI, with the restriction that no more than 20% of the population of any metropolitan area may live in a qualified tract.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 2 The LIHTC Program
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Projects located in census tracts where at least 50 percent of the households are eligible to rent an LIHTC unit are designated as Qualified Census Tracts (QCT) and receive thirty percent higher tax credits.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 1 Introduction
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“As of 2001, 29 states gave extra points to projects proposed for tracts with qualified status as one of the location criteria.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 2 The LIHTC Program
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“For outcomes with statistically significant estimates, we also report spatially corrected standard errors using the GMM estimator described in Conley (2008).”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Conley (2008)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Tracts’ qualified status is assigned using decennial census data, and is thus only revised every 10 years.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 2 The LIHTC Program
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If this is true, the omitted variables on which the sorting occurs get differenced out by the regression discontinuity estimator.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 3 Empirical Approach > 3.2 Identification
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Sorting on unobservables happens using exactly the same process on each side of the QCT threshold.
In the paper
“The LIHTC program was established as part of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 to encourage the development of affordable rental housing for low-income households.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 2 The LIHTC Program
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Tax Reform Act of 1986
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Of the many variables examined, only population, total housing units, and the fraction of owner occupied housing units that were detached differ significantly across the qualified threshold and magnitudes of these differences are small.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 4 Data > 4.1 Summary statistics
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Furthermore, as argued in Eriksen and Rosenthal (2007), the magnitude and even the sign of the external effects of LIHTC construction may differ as a function of initial neighborhood composition.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 1 Introduction
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Eriksen and Rosenthal (2007)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“All reported standard errors are clustered at the county level.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.3 Ring Level First Stage Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The estimated coefficient β^1 is consistent provided the error term εi does not change discontinuously across the threshold ei = 0.5.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 3 Empirical Approach > 3.1 Basic Empirical Model
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The error term εi does not change discontinuously across the threshold ei = 0.5.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Despite this population restriction, almost all (96 percent) of metropolitan census tracts above the cutoff qualify.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 2 The LIHTC Program
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Since the program’s inception, over 95 percent of units in projects supported by the program qualified as low income.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 2 The LIHTC Program
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We choose blocks because they provide approximately the same number of potential LIHTC development sites regardless of spatial location and they are small enough to be precisely aggregated into rings.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 3 Empirical Approach > 3.3 Generalizing The Geography
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These results indicate that while LIHTC units increase total new rental construction at a little less than one for one in low demand areas, the private market would have created more than 60 percent of the LIHTC new construction in gentrifying areas if the program did not exist.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.2 Impacts on Local Construction
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Declining median area incomes points to negative peer effects or stigma of living near LIHTC projects as potential explanations for these demand shifts.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most important for our analysis, information on project location is missing for 9.5 percent of projects and the number of units is missing for 4.9 percent of observations.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 4 Data
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Either at least 20 percent of the units must be occupied by tenants earning below 50 percent of the Area Median Gross Income (AMGI) or at least 40 percent of units must be occupied by tenants earning below 60 percent of the AMGI.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 2 The LIHTC Program
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These jurisdictions host a large number of LIHTC projects, make applications data readily available, and include states both with and without preferences to place LIHTC projects in QCTs.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 4 Data
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We find that this effect is stronger in areas with the fastest growth in housing values during the eighties, suggesting that developers differentially select into gentrifying areas.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 7 Conclusions
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“With only two exceptions, the estimated discontinuities at the placebo thresholds are statistically insignificant, and in most cases they are closer to zero than the estimates using the true eligibility threshold.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.1 Tract Level Estimates
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“To disentangle the supply decisions of firms from the preferences of state housing authorities, it is worthwhile to know about projects that were rejected.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 4 Data
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In order to maintain continuity of baseline variables across the tax credit discontinuity, we always control for county fixed effects in the empirical analysis to follow.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 4 Data > 4.1 Summary statistics
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This either suggests that sorting biases OLS estimates towards zero, or that we are obtaining local estimates at the QCT threshold that do not generalize to the broader sample.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Since tracts are often too large to assess treatment effects that may decay quickly with distance, we examine the effect of geographically close LIHTC units on outcomes at the census block group level.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 3 Empirical Approach > 3.3 Generalizing The Geography
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Each state is required to have a “Qualified Allocation Plan” (QAP) to determine whether applications for developments merit receiving the tax credit.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 2 The LIHTC Program
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The expected value of the covariates captured in the vector Z should be equal in QCT and non-QCT tracts near the threshold if this identification strategy is valid.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 3 Empirical Approach > 3.1 Basic Empirical Model
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“A standard strategy for evaluating the marginal willingness to pay for a local amenity is to estimate the response of housing values to exogenous shocks in the amenity (Rosen, 1974 and Ekeland et al. 2004).”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes
What the sources say
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The slight positive impact of LIHTC units on housing values even in gentrifying neighborhoods may reflect capitalization of the expected future amenity value of the LIHTC developments once they become market rate housing.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes > 6.1 Impacts on Block Group Outcomes
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper relies on this without support.
LIHTC subsidized units are almost entirely populated by households below the 30th percentile of the income distribution.
“Since LIHTC subsidized units are almost entirely populated by households below the 30th percentile of the income distribution, new developments may generate a decline in local amenities because they lead to an influx of lower than average income residents in most neighborhoods.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Developers’ incentives to build low income versus market rate housing may differ markedly by local economic conditions.
“Developers’ incentives to build low income versus market rate housing may differ markedly by local economic conditions.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The probability a project is proposed in a particular tract, and whether this proposal is ultimately accepted, is likely to be related to some unobserved tract characteristics that also influence the change in the outcome.
“The probability a project is proposed in a particular tract, and whether this proposal is ultimately accepted, is likely to be related to some unobserved tract characteristics that also influence the change in the outcome Δyi.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The error term εi does not change discontinuously across the threshold ei = 0.5.
“The estimated coefficient β^1 is consistent provided the error term εi does not change discontinuously across the threshold ei = 0.5.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
There are no unobservables that influence an outcome of interest and are correlated with QCT status, conditional on controls including the interacted polynomial f(e).
“The basic identifying assumption is that there are no unobservables that influence an outcome of interest and are correlated with QCT status, conditional on controls including the interacted polynomial f(e).”
The paper relies on this without support.
Sorting on unobservables is likely to remain within groups of tracts on either side of the QCT threshold.
“It is important to recognize that sorting on unobservables is likely to remain within groups of tracts on either side of the QCT threshold.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Whether locating in a qualified tract or not, developers will still find it to their advantage to locate in gentrifying areas.
“In particular, whether locating in a qualified tract or not, developers will still find it to their advantage to locate in gentrifying areas.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Sorting on unobservables happens using exactly the same process on each side of the QCT threshold.
“For econometric identification, we need that such sorting on unobservables happens using exactly the same process on each side of the threshold.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The empirical model in (2) captures the data generating process for x at the census block level.
“Assuming the empirical model in (2) captures the data generating process for x at the census block level, inclusion of the aggregated polynomial control function terms ensures that the instrument is orthogonal to the error term ε~g.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Missing information on location does not differ across the 50 percent eligibility cutoff.
“Assuming that missing information on location does not differ across the 50 percent eligibility cutoff, missing data does not adversely affect our identification strategy, though it does add noise to the error term.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Unobserved tract characteristics that influence outcomes of interest do not vary discontinuously across the QCT eligibility threshold.
“In order for the regression discontinuity strategy to yield consistent parameter estimates, unobserved tract characteristics that influence outcomes of interest must not vary discontinuously across the policy threshold.”
The paper relies on this without support.
In 2003 the QCT criterion was expanded to allow tracts with a poverty rate exceeding 25 percent to qualify as QCTs.
“In 2003 the QCT criterion was expanded also to allow tracts with a poverty rate exceeding 25 percent to qualify as QCTs.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
If all profitable projects are proposed, then the response of proposed units to QCT designation yields the supply response of LIHTC units to higher anticipated tax credits.
“If all profitable projects are proposed, then the response of proposed units to the QCT designation yields the supply response of LIHTC units to higher anticipated tax credits.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.1 Tract Level Estimates
“Specifications shown in columns 2-4 of Table 4 show estimates of γ1 when more controls are included in the regression.”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 5 Development Location Results > 5.1 Tract Level Estimates
“Indeed, adding county fixed effects in column 3, tract demographic controls in column 4, and tract housing characteristics in column 5 generates little change in the estimated units and projects discontinuities.”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > 6 LIHTC Projects and Neighborhood Outcomes
“(Rosen, 1974 and Ekeland et al. 2004)”
§ The Effects of Low Income Housing Tax Credit Developments on Neighborhoods > References
“Ivar Ekeland JJH Nesheim L Identification and estimation of hedonic models Journal of Political Economy 1994 112 1 S60 S109”
Citations
Cites
A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures
Tiebout, C. M. (1956) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/257839 · Cited by 13,222
Hedonic prices and implicit markets: product differentiation in pure competition
Rosen, S. (1974) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/260169 · Cited by 10,603
Schelling, T. (1971) · Journal of Mathematical Sociology · doi:10.1080/0022250x.1971.9989794 · Cited by 4,966
Identification and estimation of local average treatment effects
Imbens, G. W., & Angrist, J. D. (1994) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/2951620 · Cited by 4,101
Experimental Analysis of Neighborhood Effects
Kling, J. R., Liebman, J. B., & Katz, L. F. (2007) · Econometrica · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0262.2007.00733.x · Cited by 2,719
Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design
Hahn, J., Todd, P., & Klaauw, W. (2001) · Econometrica · doi:10.1111/1468-0262.00183 · Cited by 2,679
Does Air Quality Matter? Evidence from the Housing Market
Chay, K. Y., & Greenstone, M. (2005) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/427462 · Cited by 1,103
Does Air Quality Matter? Evidence from the Housing Market
Chay, K. Y., & Greenstone, M. (1998) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w6826 · Cited by 675
Identification and estimation of hedonic models
Ekeland, I., Heckman, J. J., & Nesheim, L. (2004) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/379947 · Cited by 380
Identification and estimation of hedonic models
Ekeland, I., Heckman, J. J., & Nesheim, L. P. (2017) · doi:10.1920/wp.cem.2002.0702 · Cited by 354
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- Schwartz, 2006, The external effects of subsidized housing investment, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 36, 697
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Regression discontinuity designs in economics
Lee, D. S., & Lemieux, T. (2010) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.48.2.281 · Cited by 4,534
Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics
Lee, D. S., & Lemieux, T. (2009) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w14723 · Cited by 645
Diamond, R., & McQuade, T. J. (2016) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/701354 · Cited by 308
DO “CAPITALIZATION EFFECTS” FOR PUBLIC GOODS REVEAL THE PUBLIC'S WILLINGNESS TO PAY?
Kuminoff, N. V., & Pope, J. C. (2014) · International Economic Review · doi:10.1111/iere.12088 · Cited by 244
The Redistributional Impact of Nonlinear Electricity Pricing
Borenstein, S. (2012) · American Economic Journal Economic Policy · doi:10.1257/pol.4.3.56 · Cited by 185
Metadata
- Authors
- Baum-Snow, N., & Marion, J.
- Affiliations
- Brown University (US)
- University of California, Santa Cruz (US)
- Corresponding author
- Baum-Snow, Nathaniel
- Venue
- Journal of Public Economics
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2009-06
- Volume
- 93
- Issue
- 5-6
- Pages
- 654-666
- ISSN
- 0047-2727 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3824966
- OpenAlex
- W2048157984
- Cited by
- 264
- References
- 17
- Citations by year
- 2026: 20 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 19 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 30 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 16 · 2017: 10 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 28 · 2014: 13 · 2013: 10 · 2012: 11
- FWCI
- 19.27
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Journal of Public Economics (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R24HD041020)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Housing Market and Economics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Urban, Neighborhood, and Segregation Studies
- Social Sciences › Urban Studies › Urban Planning and Governance
- Keywords
- Low-Income Housing Tax Credit, neighborhood effects, gentrification, property values, income distribution, displacement, housing policy, tax credits, census tracts
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-11-04, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-11-04 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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