The employment effects of collective wage bargaining
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This study examines the wage and employment effects of Italian collective wage bargaining. It analyzes monthly data on the population of private-sector employees, matched with the information on contractual pay levels set by industry-wide agreements, which were bargained by the representatives of trade unions and employers at the national level. The research design exploited the generalized wage growth induced by changes in the contractual pay levels, whose timing and size differ across collective agreements. The specification adopted compared the outcomes of interest within sectors and geographical locations, and among workers subject to different collective contracts. The study results show that contractual wage growth raised the actual pay levels and had significant negative effects on employment. These employment effects were broadly consistent with the Hicks–Marshall laws and with several hypotheses of traditional centralized wage bargaining models.
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Fanfani (2023) finds that contractual wage growth raises actual pay levels but has significantly negative employment effects, consistent with canonical centralized-bargaining models.
“Fanfani (2023) uses Italian administrative data matched to industry-wide collective agreements, and finds that contractual wage growth raises actual pay levels but has significantly negative employment effects, consistent with canonical centralized-bargaining models.”
From Labor Market Consequences of Generative AI: Early Evidence from Norway (2026) · cites this paper as Fanfani, 2023
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Labor Market Consequences of Generative AI: Early Evidence from Norway
Facius, D., & Iacono, R. (2026) · CESifo Working Papers · doi:10.65864/8a4auliirt
- Authors
- Fanfani, B.
- Affiliations
- University of Turin (IT)
- Corresponding author
- Fanfani, Bernardo
- ORCID
- Fanfani, Bernardo
- Venue
- Journal of Public Economics
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2023-11
- Volume
- 227
- Pages
- 105006
- ISSN
- 0047-2727 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4387605225
- Cited by
- 17
- References
- 4
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 1
- FWCI
- 3.46
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Public Economics (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Institutional Research Information System University of Turin (University of Turin) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Compagnia di San Paolo
- Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
- Università degli Studi di Torino
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Social Sciences › Public Administration › Labor Movements and Unions
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Industrial relations › Legal and Labor Studies
- Keywords
- employment effects, wage growth, trade unions, centralized wage bargaining, Italian labour market, private sector employees
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