Cited by 222

The cost of direct air capture and storage can be reduced via strategic deployment but is unlikely to fall below stated cost targets

Young, John, McQueen, Noah, Charalambous, Charithea, Foteinis, Spyros, Hawrot, Olivia, Ojeda, Manuel, Pilorgé, Hélène, Andresen, John +4 more·2023·One Earth

Published version of a preprint

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.06.004

Cites

4 of 4 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Direct air carbon capture and storage removes CO2 emissions directly from the atmosphere and stores them underground without requiring proximity to emission sources.

    “direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), which removes CO2 emissions directly from the atmosphere and stores them underground without requiring proximity to emission sources92.”
  • For higher DACCS costs, which appear more likely given current knowledge, the system cost effect is only marginal.

    “For higher DACCS costs, which appear more likely given current knowledge92, the system cost effect is only marginal.”

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 64

  1. Realmonte, G., Drouet, L., Gambhir, A., Glynn, J., Hawkes, A., Ko ¨berle, A.C., and Tavoni, M. (2019). An inter-model assessment of the role of direct air capture in deep mitigation pathways. Nat. Commun. 10, 3277. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10842-5. · DOI
  2. Bergman, A., and Rinberg, A. (2021). Chapter 1 -The case for carbon di- oxide removal: From science to justice. In CDR Primer, J. Wilcox, B. Kolosz, and J. Freeman, eds.
  3. Fuhrman, J., McJeon, H., Patel, P., Doney, S.C., Shobe, W.M., and Clarens, A.F. (2020). Food-energy-water implications of negative emis- sions technologies in a +1.5 C future. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 920-927. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0876-z. · DOI · Paper page
  4. Chatterjee, S., and Huang, K.W. (2020). Unrealistic energy and materials requirement for direct air capture in deep mitigation pathways. Nat. Commun. 11, 3287-3312. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17203-7. · DOI
  5. McQueen, N., Psarras, P., Pilorge ´, H., Liguori, S., He, J., Yuan, M., Woodall, C.M., Kian, K., Pierpoint, L., Jurewicz, J., et al. (2020). Cost Analysis of Direct Air Capture and Sequestration Coupled to Low- Carbon Thermal Energy in the United States. Environ. Sci. Technol. 54, 7542-7551. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c00476. · DOI
  6. McQueen, N., Desmond, M.J., Socolow, R.H., Psarras, P., and Wilcox, J. (2021). Natural Gas vs. Electricity for Solvent-Based Direct Air Capture. Front. Clim. 2, 38. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2020.618644. · DOI
  7. Sabatino, F., Grimm, A., Gallucci, F., van Sint Annaland, M., Kramer, G.J., and Gazzani, M. (2021). A comparative energy and costs assessment and optimization for direct air capture technologies. Joule 5, 2047- 2076. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2021.05.023. · DOI · Paper page
  8. Sabatino, F., Gazzani, M., Gallucci, F., and van Sint Annaland, M. (2022). Modeling, Optimization, and Techno-Economic Analysis of Bipolar Membrane Electrodialysis for Direct Air Capture Processes. Ind. Eng. Chem. Res. 61, 12668-12679. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.iecr.2c00889. · DOI
  9. Shayegh, S., Bosetti, V., and Tavoni, M. (2021). Future Prospects of Direct Air Capture Technologies: Insights From an Expert Elicitation Survey. Front. Clim. 3, 630893. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.630893. · DOI
  10. Fasihi, M., Efimova, O., and Breyer, C. (2019). Techno-economic assess- ment of CO2 direct air capture plants. J. Clean. Prod. 224, 957-980. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.03.086. · DOI
  11. Hanna, R., Abdulla, A., Xu, Y., and Victor, D.G. (2021). Emergency deployment of direct air capture as a response to the climate crisis. Nat. Commun. 12, 368. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20437-0. · DOI
  12. Yang, G., Yu, L., and Li, J. (2022). Cost Assessment of Direct Air Capture: Based on Learning Curve and Net Present Value. SSRN Electron. J. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4108848. · DOI
  13. Roussanaly, S., Berghout, N., Fout, T., Garcia, M., Gardarsdottir, S., Nazir, S.M., Ramirez, A., and Rubin, E.S. (2021). Towards improved cost evaluation of Carbon Capture and Storage from industry. Int. J. Greenh. Gas Control 106, 103263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2021. 103263. · DOI
  14. Kittner, N., Lill, F., and Kammen, D.M. (2017). Energy storage deployment and innovation for the clean energy transition. Nat. Energy 2, 17125. https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2017.125. · DOI
  15. Malhotra, A., and Schmidt, T.S. (2020). Accelerating Low-Carbon Innovation. Joule 4, 2259-2267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2020. 09.004. · DOI
  16. Samadi, S. (2018). The experience curve theory and its application in the field of electricity generation technologies -A literature review. Renew.
  17. Sustain. Energy Rev. 82, 2346-2364. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017. 08.077. · DOI
  18. Thomassen, G., Van Passel, S., and Dewulf, J. (2020). A review on learning effects in prospective technology assessment. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 130, 109937. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020. 109937. · DOI
  19. McDonald, A., and Schrattenholzer, L. (2001). Learning rates for energy technologies. Energy Pol. 29, 255-261. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0301- 4215(00)00122-1. · DOI
  20. Rubin, E.S., Azevedo, I.M., Jaramillo, P., and Yeh, S. (2015). A review of learning rates for electricity supply technologies. Energy Pol. 86, 198-218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.06.011. · DOI
  21. Rubin, E.S., Yeh, S., Antes, M., Berkenpas, M., and Davison, J. (2007). Use of experience curves to estimate the future cost of power plants with CO2 capture. Int. J. Greenh. Gas Control 1, 188-197. https://doi. org/10.1016/S1750-5836(07)00016-3. · DOI
  22. Sabatino, F., Mehta, M., Grimm, A., Gazzani, M., Gallucci, F., Kramer, G.J., and van Sint Annaland, M. (2020). Evaluation of a Direct Air Capture Process Combining Wet Scrubbing and Bipolar Membrane Electrodialysis. Ind. Eng. Chem. Res. 59, 7007-7020. https://doi.org/ 10.1021/acs.iecr.9b05641. · DOI
  23. Young, J., Garcı ´a-Dı ´ez, E., Garcia, S., and van der Spek, M. (2021). The impact of binary water-CO2 isotherm models on the optimal perfor- mance of sorbent-based direct air capture processes. Energy Environ. Sci. 14, 5377-5394. https://doi.org/10.1039/d1ee01272j. · DOI
  24. McQueen, N., Kelemen, P., Dipple, G., Renforth, P., and Wilcox, J. (2020). Ambient weathering of magnesium oxide for CO2 removal from air. Nat. Commun. 11, 3299. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16510-3. · DOI
  25. Lackner, K.S., and Azarabadi, H. (2021). Buying down the Cost of Direct Air Capture. Ind. Eng. Chem. Res. 60, 8196-8208. https://doi.org/10. 1021/acs.iecr.0c04839. · DOI
  26. Voskian, S., and Hatton, T.A. (2019). Faradaic electro-swing reactive adsorption for CO 2 capture. Energy Environ. Sci. 12, 3530-3547. https://doi.org/10.1039/C9EE02412C. · DOI
  27. Hemmatifar, A., Kang, J.S., Ozbek, N., Tan, K.J., and Hatton, T.A. (2022). Electrochemically Mediated Direct CO 2 Capture by a Stackable Bipolar Cell. ChemSusChem 15, e202102533. https://doi.org/10.1002/cssc. 202102533. · DOI
  28. Neij, L. (2008). Cost development of future technologies for power gener- ation-A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom- up assessments. Energy Pol. 36, 2200-2211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. enpol.2008.02.029. · DOI
  29. Papapetrou, M., Kosmadakis, G., Cipollina, A., La Commare, U., and Micale, G. (2018). Industrial waste heat: Estimation of the technically available resource in the EU per industrial sector, temperature level and country. Appl. Therm. Eng. 138, 207-216. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.applthermaleng.2018.04.043. · DOI
  30. Fuhrman, J., Clarens, A., Calvin, K., Doney, S.C., Edmonds, J.A., O'Rourke, P., Patel, P., Pradhan, S., Shobe, W., and McJeon, H. (2021). The role of direct air capture and negative emissions technologies in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways towards +1.5 C and +2 C futures. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, 114012-115040. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748- 9326/ac2db0. · DOI
  31. Pilorge ´, H., Kolosz, B., Wu, G.C., and Freeman, J. (2021). Global Mapping of CDR Opportunities. In CDR Primer, J. Wilcox, B. Kolosz, and J. Freeman, eds. 43. Mikunda, T., van Deurzen, J., Seebregts, A., Kerssemakers, K., Tetteroo, M., and Buit, L. (2011). Towards a CO2 infrastructure in North-Western Europe: Legalities, costs and organizational aspects. Energy Proc. 4, 2409-2416. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2011.02.134. · DOI
  32. Wiegner, J.F., Grimm, A., Weimann, L., and Gazzani, M. (2022). Optimal Design and Operation of Solid Sorbent Direct Air Capture Processes at Varying Ambient Conditions. Ind. Eng. Chem. Res. 61, 12649-12667. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.iecr.2c00681. · DOI
  33. Sendi, M., Bui, M., Mac Dowell, N., and Fennell, P. (2022). Geospatial analysis of regional climate impacts to accelerate cost-efficient direct air capture deployment. One Earth 5, 1153-1164. https://doi.org/10. 1016/j.oneear.2022.09.003. · DOI
  34. An, K., Farooqui, A., and McCoy, S.T. (2022). The impact of climate on solvent-based direct air capture systems. Appl. Energy 325, 119895. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119895. · DOI
  35. Terlouw, T., Bauer, C., Rosa, L., and Mazzotti, M. (2021). Life cycle assess- ment of carbon dioxide removal technologies: a critical review. Energy Environ. Sci. 14, 1701-1721. https://doi.org/10.1039/D0EE03757E. · DOI
  36. Nazeri, M., Maroto-Valer, M.M., and Jukes, E. (2016). Performance of Coriolis flowmeters in CO2 pipelines with pre-combustion, post-com- bustion and oxyfuel gas mixtures in carbon capture and storage. Int. J. Greenh. Gas Control 54, 297-308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2016. 09.013. · DOI
  37. Sovacool, B.K., Baum, C.M., Low, S., Roberts, C., and Steinhauser, J. (2022). Climate policy for a net-zero future: ten recommendations for Direct Air Capture. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 074014. https://doi.org/10. 1088/1748-9326/ac77a4. · DOI
  38. Alcalde, J., Heinemann, N., Mabon, L., Worden, R.H., de Coninck, H., Robertson, H., Maver, M., Ghanbari, S., Swennenhuis, F., Mann, I., et al. (2019). Acorn: Developing full-chain industrial carbon capture and storage in a resource-and infrastructure-rich hydrocarbon province. J. Clean. Prod. 233, 963-971. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019. 06.087. · DOI
  39. Smith, E., Morris, J., Kheshgi, H., Teletzke, G., Herzog, H., and Paltsev, S. (2021). The cost of CO2 transport and storage in global integrated assessment modeling. Int. J. Greenh. Gas Control 109, 103367. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2021.103367. · DOI
  40. Becattini, V., Gabrielli, P., Frattini, L., Weisbach, D., and Mazzotti, M. (2022). A two-step carbon pricing scheme enabling a net-zero and net- negative CO2-emissions world. Clim. Change 171, 18. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s10584-022-03340-z. · DOI
  41. Kremer, M., Levin, J., and Snyder, C.M. (2022). Designing Advance Market Commitments for New Vaccines. Manage. Sci. 68, 4786-4814. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.4163. · DOI
  42. de Bruijne, R., van Erp, F., and Leguijt, T. (2016). Get set to bid for the next offshore wind projects in The Netherlands. Renew. Energy Focus 17, 15-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ref.2015.11.012. · DOI
  43. van der Loos, H.A., Negro, S.O., and Hekkert, M.P. (2020). Low-carbon lock-in? Exploring transformative innovation policy and offshore wind en- ergy pathways in the Netherlands. Energy Res. Soc. Sci. 69, 101640. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101640. · DOI
  44. Hodge, G.A., and Greve, C. (2007). Public-Private Partnerships: An International Performance Review. Public Adm. Rev. 67, 545-558.
  45. Boone, I., Van der Stede, Y., Bollaerts, K., Vose, D., Maes, D., Dewulf, J., Messens, W., Daube, G., Aerts, M., and Mintiens, K. (2009). NUSAP Method for Evaluating the Data Quality in a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Model for Salmonella in the Pork Production Chain. Risk Anal. 29, 502-517. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01181.x. · DOI
  46. van der Spek, M., Sanchez Fernandez, E., Eldrup, N.H., Skagestad, R., Ramirez, A., and Faaij, A. (2017). Unravelling uncertainty and variability in early stage techno-economic assessments of carbon capture technol- ogies. Int. J. Greenh. Gas Control 56, 221-236. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. ijggc.2016.11.021. · DOI
  47. van der Spek, M., Fout, T., Garcia, M., Kuncheekanna, V.N., Matuszewski, M., McCoy, S., Morgan, J., Nazir, S.M., Ramirez, A., Roussanaly, S., and Rubin, E.S. (2020). Uncertainty analysis in the techno-economic assessment of CO2 capture and storage technologies. Critical review and guidelines for use. Int. J. Greenh. Gas Control 100, 103113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2020.103113. · DOI
  48. Rubin, E.S., Short, C., Booras, G., Davison, J., Ekstrom, C., Matuszewski, M., and McCoy, S. (2013). A proposed methodology for CO2 capture and storage cost estimates. Int. J. Greenh. Gas Control 17, 488-503. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2013.06.004. · DOI
  49. Rubin, E.S. (2019). Improving cost estimates for advanced low-carbon power plants. Int. J. Greenh. Gas Control 88, 1-9. https://doi.org/10. 1016/j.ijggc.2019.05.019. · DOI
  50. Deutz, S., and Bardow, A. (2021). Life-cycle assessment of an industrial direct air capture process based on temperature-vacuum swing adsorp- tion. Nat. Energy 6, 203-213. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020- 00771-9. · DOI
  51. de Jonge, M.M., Daemen, J., Loriaux, J.M., Steinmann, Z.J., and Huijbregts, M.A. (2019). Life cycle carbon efficiency of Direct Air Capture systems with strong hydroxide sorbents. Int. J. Greenh. Gas Control 80, 25-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2018.11.011. · DOI
  52. Wernet, G., Bauer, C., Steubing, B., Reinhard, J., Moreno-Ruiz, E., and Weidema, B. (2016). The ecoinvent database version 3 (part I): overview and methodology. Int. J. Life Cycle Assess. 21, 1218-1230. https://doi. org/10.1007/s11367-016-1087-8. · DOI · Paper page
  53. Cooper, J., Balcombe, P., and Hawkes, A. (2021). The quantification of methane emissions and assessment of emissions data for the largest natural gas supply chains. J. Clean. Prod. 320, 128856. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.128856. · DOI
  54. McCay, A.T., Feliks, M.E.J., and Roberts, J.J. (2019). Life cycle assess- ment of the carbon intensity of deep geothermal heat systems: A case study from Scotland. Sci. Total Environ. 685, 208-219. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.311. · DOI
  55. Mahmud, M., Huda, N., Farjana, S., and Lang, C. (2018). Environmental Impacts of Solar-Photovoltaic and Solar-Thermal Systems with Life-Cycle Assessment. Energies 11, 2346. https://doi. org/10.3390/en11092346. · DOI
  56. McQueen, N., Gomes, K.V., McCormick, C., Blumanthal, K., Pisciotta, M., and Wilcox, J. (2021). A review of direct air capture (DAC): scaling up commercial technologies and innovating for the future. Prog. Energy 3, 032001. https://doi.org/10.1088/2516-1083/abf1ce. · DOI
  57. Sievert, K., Schmidt, T.S., and Steffen, B. (2022). Projecting future costs of direct air capture using component-based experience curves. In 2nd International Conference on Negative CO2 emissions.
  58. Winskel, M., Markusson, N., Jeffrey, H., Candelise, C., Dutton, G., Howarth, P., Jablonski, S., Kalyvas, C., and Ward, D. (2014). Learning pathways for energy supply technologies: Bridging between innovation studies and learning rates. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 81, 96-114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.015. · DOI
  59. Young, J., Mcilwaine, F., Smit, B., Garcia, S., and van der Spek, M. (2023). Process-informed adsorbent design guidelines for direct air cap- ture. Chem. Eng. J. 456, 141035. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cej.2022. 141035. · DOI
  60. Jesper, M., Schlosser, F., Pag, F., Walmsley, T.G., Schmitt, B., and Vajen, K. (2021). Large-scale heat pumps: Uptake and performance modelling of market-available devices. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 137, 110646. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110646. · DOI
  61. Herzog, H.J. (2022). Chapter 6 -Direct air capture. In Greenhouse Gas Removal Technologies, M. Bui and N. Mac Dowell, eds. (Royal Society of Chemistry).
  62. Planas, N., Dzubak, A.L., Poloni, R., Lin, L.C., McManus, A., McDonald, T.M., Neaton, J.B., Long, J.R., Smit, B., and Gagliardi, L. (2013). The mechanism of carbon dioxide adsorption in an alkylamine-functionalized metal-organic framework. J. Am. Chem. Soc. 135, 7402-7405. https:// doi.org/10.1021/ja4004766. · DOI
  63. Helm, D. (2008). A New Regulatory Model for Water: The Periodic Review, Financial Regulation and Competition.
  64. Roth, A., Br€ uckmann, R., Jimeno, M., äukan, M., Kitzing, L., Breitschopf, B., Alexander-Haw, A., and Blanco, A.L.A. (2021). Renewable Energy Financing Conditions in Europe : Survey and Impact Analysis. 101. CNBC (2022), U.S. 10 Year Treasury. https://www.cnbc.com/ quotes/US10Y. 102. Climeworks Climeworks. Our Products. https://www.climeworks.com/ our-products/. 103. van der Spek, M., Ramirez, A., and Faaij, A. (2017). Challenges and un- certainties of ex ante techno-economic analysis of low TRL CO 2 capture technology: Lessons from a case study of an NGCC with exhaust gas recycle and electric swing adsorption. Appl. Energy 208, 920-934. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.09.058. · DOI

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Young, J., McQueen, N., Charalambous, C., Foteinis, S., Hawrot, O., Ojeda, M., Pilorgé, H., Andresen, J., Psarras, P., Renforth, P., Garcia, S., & van der Spek, M.
Venue
One Earth
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2023-07
Volume
6
Issue
7
Pages
899-917
ISSN
2590-3322
Cited by
222
References
4
Language
en
Funders
  • U.S. Department of Energy
  • Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, UK Government
  • Horizon 2020 (299659)
  • Natural Environment Research Council
  • Bundesamt für Energie
  • Norges Forskningsråd

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review