Evaluating natural experiments to measure the co-benefits of urban policy interventions to reduce carbon emissions in New Zealand
Abstract
Finding effective policy interventions for addressing the Sustainable Development Goals, such as reducing carbon emissions (SDG 13), which can also enhance good health and wellbeing (SDG 3), is urgent. Many promising interactions occur between sustainable cities and communities (SDG 11), clean water and sanitation (SDG 6) and affordable and clean energy (SDG 7), which sit at the centre of integrated urban planning and regeneration. In this paper, we consider the framing and findings of four policies we have evaluated as natural experiments, all of which have important co-benefits, which were not always the focus of the initial policies. These policies are: the installation of cycleways and walkways in existing suburbs; a central government measure to recentralise employment after the 2011 Christchurch earthquakes; the streamlining of housing developments by reducing land-use regulation; and ongoing changes of policy about public housing investment. We show that having a clear understanding of the benefits of increased physical activity for health, for example, could accelerate the reduction of carbon emissions. Also, decisions about infrastructure, housing and job locations can generate health and environmental gains if supported by broader public transport investments. Cycling and walking are also more likely to substitute for short habitual car trips. Similarly, measuring the co-benefits of differential residential models, relating to land-use and renewable energy, provides a framework that can facilitate learning from policy interventions, enabling wider and potentially more rapid generalisation of policies, including those for climate change mitigation.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Cites
Policy: Map the interactions between Sustainable Development Goals
Nilsson, M., Griggs, D., & Visbeck, M. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/534320a · Cited by 2,114 · see citing works
Craig, P., Cooper, C. C., Gunnell, D., Haw, S. J., Lawson, K. D., Macintyre, S., Ogilvie, D., Petticrew, M. P., Reeves, B. C., Sutton, M., et al. (2012) · Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health · doi:10.1136/jech-2011-200375 · Cited by 966 · see citing works
Mixed land-uses and commuting: Evidence from the American Housing Survey
Cervero, R. (1996) · Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice · doi:10.1016/0965-8564(95)00033-x · Cited by 669 · see citing works
A public health frame arouses hopeful emotions about climate change: A Letter
Myers, T. A., Nisbet, M. C., Maibach, E. W., & Leiserowitz, A. A. (2012) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0513-6 · Cited by 632 · see citing works
Effect of insulating existing houses on health inequality: cluster randomised study in the community
Howden-Chapman, P., Matheson, A., Crane, J., Viggers, H., Cunningham, M., Blakely, T., Cunningham, C., Woodward, A., Saville-Smith, K., O'Dea, D., et al. (2007) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.39070.573032.80 · Cited by 521 · see citing works
Self-citationNatural Experiments in the Social Sciences: A Design-Based Approach
Dunning, T. (2012) · Thammasat University Digital Collections · Cited by 466 · see citing works
Determinants of transport mode choice: a comparison of Germany and the USA
Buehler, R. (2010) · Journal of Transport Geography · doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2010.07.005 · Cited by 396 · see citing works
Natural experiments: an underused tool for public health?
Petticrew, M., Cummins, S., Ferrell, C., Findlay, A., Higgins, C., Hoy, C., Kearns, A., & Sparks, L. (2005) · Public Health · doi:10.1016/j.puhe.2004.11.008 · Cited by 318 · see citing works
Howden‐Chapman, P., Pierse, N., Nicholls, S., Bennett, J., Viggers, H. E., Cunningham, M. J., Phipps, R., Boulic, M., Fjällström, P., Free, S., et al. (2008) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.a1411 · Cited by 278 · see citing works
Self-citationKeall, M. D., Pierse, N., Howden-Chapman, P., Cunningham, C., Cunningham, M., Guria, J., & Baker, M. G. (2015) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(14)61006-0 · Cited by 226 · see citing works
Self-citationHealth co-benefits of climate change mitigation policies in the transport sector
Shaw, C., Hales, S., Howden‐Chapman, P., & Edwards, R. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2247 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
Self-citationChapman, R., Keall, M., Howden‐Chapman, P., Grams, M., Witten, K., Randal, E., & Woodward, A. J. (2018) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph15050962 · Cited by 102 · see citing works
Self-citationKeall, M., Shaw, C., Chapman, R., & Howden‐Chapman, P. (2018) · Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment · doi:10.1016/j.trd.2018.10.004 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Self-citationCapital City: Gentrification and the Real Estate State
Stein, S. (2019) · Cited by 81 · see citing works
Running to stay in place: the time-use implications of automobile oriented land-use and travel
Farber, S., & Páez, A. (2010) · Journal of Transport Geography · doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2010.09.008 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Social capital and crime in New York City's low‐income housing
Saegert, S., Winkel, G. H., & Swartz, C. (2002) · Housing Policy Debate · doi:10.1080/10511482.2002.9521439 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Keall, M., Chapman, R., Howden‐Chapman, P., Witten, K., Abrahamse, W., & Woodward, A. J. (2015) · Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health · doi:10.1136/jech-2015-205466 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Self-citationHow should interventions to reduce inequalities in health be evaluated?
Mackenbach, J. P., & Gunning-Schepers, L. J. (1997) · Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health · doi:10.1136/jech.51.4.359 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Scheepers, E., Wendel‐Vos, W., van Kempen, E., Panis, L. I., Maas, J., Stipdonk, H. L., Moerman, M., den Hertog, F., Staatsen, B. A. M., van Wesemael, P. J. V., et al. (2013) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0073105 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Home Truths: Confronting New Zealand’s Housing Crisis
Howden‐Chapman, P. (2015) · doi:10.7810/9780947492335 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Self-citationUnderstanding the systemic nature of cities to improve health and climate change mitigation
Chapman, R., Howden‐Chapman, P., & Capon, A. G. (2016) · Environment International · doi:10.1016/j.envint.2016.04.014 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Self-citationShaw, C., Keall, M., & Guiney, H. (2017) · Journal of Transport & Health · doi:10.1016/j.jth.2017.09.010 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Self-citationIncreasing active travel: aims, methods and baseline measures of a quasi-experimental study
Chapman, R., Howden‐Chapman, P., Keall, M., Witten, K., Abrahamse, W., Woodward, A. J., Muggeridge, D., Beetham, J., & Grams, M. (2014) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/1471-2458-14-935 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Self-citationModernising the NHS: Prevention and the reduction of health inequalities
MacIntyre, S. (2000) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.320.7246.1399 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Streamlining urban housing development: Are there environmental sustainability impacts?
Preval, N., Randal, E., Chapman, R., Moores, J. P., & Howden‐Chapman, P. (2016) · Cities · doi:10.1016/j.cities.2016.04.003 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Self-citationTime–space convergence and urban decentralisation
Ma, K., & Kang, E.-T. (2010) · Journal of Transport Geography · doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2010.06.016 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Bicycle and pedestrian travel demand forecasting : summary of data collection activities
Hottenstein, A., Turner, S., & Shunk, G. A. (1997) · ROSA P · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Whitwell, K. (2017) · doi:10.26686/wgtn.17065406 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationWhitwell, K. (2017) · doi:10.26686/wgtn.17065406.v1 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Review of the Impact of Housing Quality on Inequalities in Health and Well-Being
Howden-Chapman, P., Bennett, J., Edwards, R., Jacobs, D., Nathan, K., & Ormandy, D. (2023) · Annual Review of Public Health · doi:10.1146/annurev-publhealth-071521-111836 · Cited by 153 · see citing works
“Here we focus largely on robust evidence from public health interventions in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and natural experiments (66, 125, 162).”
BackgroundSelf-citationThe network governance of urban renewal: A comparative analysis of two cities in China
Zhang, W., Zhang, X., & Wu, G. (2021) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105448 · Cited by 127 · see citing works
Moglia, M., Frantzeskaki, N., Newton, P., Pineda-Pinto, M., Witheridge, J., Cook, S., & Glackin, S. (2021) · Developments in the Built Environment · doi:10.1016/j.dibe.2021.100052 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Handling a complex agenda: A review and assessment of methods to analyse SDG entity interactions
Horvath, S.-M., Muhr, M. M., Kirchner, M., Toth, W., Germann, V., Hundscheid, L., Vacik, H., Scherz, M., Kreiner, H., Fehr, F., et al. (2022) · Environmental Science & Policy · doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2022.01.021 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Cheng, J., Mao, C., Huang, Z., Hong, J., & Liu, G.-W. (2022) · Sustainable cities and society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2022.104047 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Lin, G., Jiang, D. L., Yin, Y., & Fu, J. (2022) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.135534 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
Adebayo, T. S., Akadırı, S. S., Uhunamure, S. E., Altuntaş, M., & Shale, K. (2022) · Heliyon · doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e12479 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
RetractedCo-Benefits Analysis of Buildings Based on Different Renewal Strategies: The Emergy-Lca Approach
Cui, W., Hong, J., Liu, G., Li, K., Huang, Y., & Lin, Z. (2021) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph18020592 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
“The co-benefits of air quality management plan and GHG emissions reduction strategies in the Seoul metropolitan area and New Zealand were evaluated by some models [49,50].”
BackgroundForecast of passenger car market structure and environmental impact analysis in China
Guo, D., Yan, W. Q., Gao, X., Hao, Y., Xu, Y., Wenjuan, E., Tan, X., & Zhang, T. (2021) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.144950 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Khalil, L., Abbas, S., Hussain, K., Zaman, K., Iswan, Salamun, H., Hassan, Z., & Anser, M. K. (2022) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0271017 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
RetractedUrban environmental health interventions towards the Sustainable Development Goals
Vardoulakis, S., Salmond, J., Krafft, T., & Morawska, L. (2020) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141530 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
“Furthermore, decisions about infrastructure, housing and job locations could generate health and environmental co-benefits, if supported by broader public transport investments (Howden-Chapman et al., 2020).”
InfluentialZhao, X., Hu, Y., Xia, N., Li, M., Chen, D., & Xu, Y. (2024) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112138 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Cucchiella, F., Rotilio, M., Annibaldi, V., Berardinis, P. D., & Ludovico, D. D. (2021) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.128468 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Carbon Emission Reduction by Bicycle-Sharing in China
Niu, Z., & Chai, L. (2022) · Energies · doi:10.3390/en15145136 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Consumer Motivation to Enhance Purchase Intention Towards Electric Vehicles in Malaysia
Abbasi, H. A., Shaari, Z. H., & Moughal, W. (2021) · SHS Web of Conferences · doi:10.1051/shsconf/202112409003 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Spatiotemporal Evolution and Features of Net Carbon Sink of Farmland Vegetation in Chongqing, China
Zhu, L., Li, W., Huang, Y., & Li, J. (2020) · International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning · doi:10.18280/ijsdp.150212 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
“Such a system requires scientific measurement of the following indices of farmland vegetation: carbon absorption, carbon emissions, net carbon sink (NCS), and net carbon sink strength (NCSS) of farmland vegetation [9].”
BackgroundInfluentialAbbasi, H. A., Johl, S. K., Moughal, W., Mazhar, M., & Abbasi, H. Z. (2022) · Journal of Hunan University Natural Sciences · doi:10.55463/issn.1674-2974.49.4.13 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
“Due to the adverse global situation, the primary concern is to reduce the ratio of GHG emissions and promote SDGs to address the environmental health intrusions, such as Climate Change (Goal 13) should be enhanced for the well-being and good health (Goal 3) [6].”
BackgroundDoes reframing urban policy around wellbeing support carbon mitigation?
Chapman, R., & Howden‐Chapman, P. (2021) · Buildings and Cities · doi:10.5334/bc.115 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Self-citationLiu, F., Li, A., Bilal, M., & Yang, Y. (2024) · Environmental Science and Pollution Research · doi:10.1007/s11356-024-32197-1 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
“…to the current research, the effective synergistic governance over APCE lies in the reduction of fossil energy use, increase in renewable energy use, wastewater pollution prevention, and reutilization of industrial solid wastes (Howden-Chapman et al. 2020; Yawale et al. 2023; Yi et al. 2023).”
Climate Change, Sustainable Cities, and Communities: A Multi-Criteria Assessment
Gündoğdu, H. G., & Aytekın, A. (2022) · İnsan ve İnsan Dergisi · doi:10.29224/insanveinsan.1104121 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Frisbee, N. C., Dyce, B., Wray, A., Bradford, N., Lee, J., & Gilliland, J. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4050232 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Summarising Key Carbon Reduction Co-benefits
Cheshmehzangi, A., & Chen, H. (2021) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-981-16-2621-0_3
Pincelli, I. P., Brent, A. C., & Hinkley, J. (2021) · WIT transactions on ecology and the environment · doi:10.2495/esus210071
Built environment and walking commute satisfaction: a route-level analysis
Zhang, M., Jiang, H., Huang, Z., Liu, J., & Yang, H. (2025) · Transportmetrica B Transport Dynamics · doi:10.1080/21680566.2025.2586109
“As a zero–emission mode of transport, walking helps reduce traffic congestion, air pollution, and carbon emissions, thereby improving urban livability and supporting global sustainability goals (Howden-Chapman et al. 2020; Majumdar et al. 2021).”
Policy–technology–finance synergy and sustainable industrial low-carbon transition
Ma, J., Cai, W., Wan, Y., Zheming, C., & Wang, T. (2026) · Frontiers in Environmental Economics · doi:10.3389/frevc.2026.1809004
Ranawaka, G. K., Berka, A. L., Hytten, K. F., & van Noppen, F. (2026) · Environmental Policy and Governance · doi:10.1002/eet.70105
Xiang, Y. H., Sun, G., Xiang, P., Zhang, Q., Li, D., Hu, J., Tian, L., Wang, J., & Xie, C. (2026) · npj Urban Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s42949-026-00432-y
“Moreover, the signi fi cant health and environmental co-bene fi ts potentially generated by policies in urban planning, transport, and housing are frequently overlooked in intervention design and evaluation, leading to fragmented outcomes 29 .”
- Authors
- Howden-Chapman, P., Keall, M., Whitwell, K., & Chapman, R.
- Affiliations
- University of Otago (NZ)
- Victoria University of Wellington (NZ)
- Venue
- Science of The Total Environment
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2020-01
- Volume
- 700
- Pages
- 134408
- ISSN
- 0048-9697 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2979856287
- Cited by
- 27
- References
- 29
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 2 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 2
- FWCI
- 5.89
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- The Science of The Total Environment (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Transportation › Urban Transport and Accessibility
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Sustainable Development
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
- Keywords
- co-benefits, urban policy, carbon emission reduction, natural experiment, cycling infrastructure, walkways, recentralization, 2011 Christchurch earthquake, land use regulation, housing development, physical activity and health, public transport, car travel, residential models, climate change mitigation, sustainable cities, New Zealand
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review