Evaluation of the lockdowns for the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy and Spain after one month follow up.
Open accessAbstract
From the end of February, the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Spain has been following the footsteps of that in Italy very closely. We have analyzed the trends of incident cases, deaths, and intensive care unit admissions (ICU) in both countries before and after their respective national lockdowns using an interrupted time-series design. Data was analyzed with quasi-Poisson regression using an interaction model to estimate the change in trends. After the first lockdown, incidence trends were considerably reduced in both countries. However, although the slopes have been flattened for all outcomes, the trends kept rising. During the second lockdown, implementing more restrictive measures for mobility, it has been a change in the trend slopes for both countries in daily incident cases and ICUs. This improvement indicates that the efforts overtaken are being successful in flattening the epidemic curve, and reinforcing the belief that we must hold on.
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Spain imposed a lockdown on March 16th that confined people to their homes, implemented social distancing measures, and closed all businesses except those essential to the country's supply chains.
“Spain imposed a lockdown on March 16th that confined people to their homes, implemented social distancing measures and closed all businesses, with the exception of those essential to the country’s supply chains (Tobías, 2020).”
From Uses and Perceptions of Music in Times of COVID-19: A Spanish Population Survey (2021) · cites this paper as Tobías, 2020
The Introduction says Spain imposed a lockdown on March 16 with social-distancing measures. It attributes the closure of all businesses except those essential to supply chains to Italy’s March 21 measures, and says Spain introduced a more restrictive lockdown on March 30. It does not explicitly say the March 16 lockdown confined people to their homes. (LLM, conf=0.90)
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Research works printed but not linked: 4
- Bernal J.L. Cummins S. Gasparrini A. Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial Int. J. Epidemiol. 46 2017 348 355 27283160 PMC5407170
- Mitjà O. Arenas À. Rodó X. Tobias A. Brew J. Benlloch J.M. Experts' request to the Spanish government: move Spain towards complete lockdown Lancet 2020 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30753-4 (pii: S0140-6736(20)30753-4) PMC7158944 32224297 · DOI · Paper page
- Our World in Data 2020. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research. Oxford Martin School, The University of Oxford, Global Change Data Lab. [Accessed April 5th, 2020]. Available from: https:// ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/.
- Saglietto A. D'Ascenzo F. Zoccai G.B. De Ferrari G.M. COVID-19 in Europe: the Italian lesson Lancet 395 10230 2020 1110 1111 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30690-5 (pii: S0140-6736(20)30690-5) 32220279 PMC7118630 · DOI
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Islam, N., Sharp, S. J., Chowell, G., Shabnam, S., Kawachi, I., Lacey, B., Massaro, J. M., D’Agostino, R. B., & White, M. (2020) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.m2743 · Cited by 601 · see citing works
Contact with blue-green spaces during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown beneficial for mental health.
Pouso, S., Borja, Á., Fleming, L. E., Gómez-Baggethun, E., White, M. P., & Uyarra, M. C. (2021) · Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143984 · Cited by 604 · see citing works
Uses and Perceptions of Music in Times of COVID-19: A Spanish Population Survey
Cabedo-Mas, A., Arriaga-Sanz, C., & Moliner-Miravet, L. (2021) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2020.606180 · Cited by 135 · see citing works
- Authors
- Tobías, A.
- Venue
- Science of The Total Environment
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2020-07
- Volume
- 725
- Pages
- 138539
- ISSN
- 0048-9697 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7195141
- OpenAlex
- W3014672040
- Cited by
- 259
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 40 · 2021: 77 · 2020: 106
- FWCI
- 9.04
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Science of The Total Environment (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DIGITAL.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Università degli Studi di Torino
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › COVID-19 Prevention and Impact
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › COVID-19 impact on air quality
- Keywords
- COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, lockdown, non-pharmaceutical interventions, mobility restrictions, epidemic curve flattening, intensive care unit admission, COVID-19 mortality, Italy, Spain, interrupted time series
- MeSH terms
- Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Italy, Pneumonia, Viral, Spain, Coronavirus Infections, Pandemics
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