Per-capita carbon emissions in 147 countries: The effect of economic, energy, social, and trade structural changes

Abstract

Abstract Structural reforms are currently the key way to achieve emissions reduction targets. A comprehensive investigation of the relationship between structural changes and carbon emissions is essential for further policy formulation. This paper aimed to discuss the impact of structural changes on per capita carbon emissions from the four aspects of energy, trade, society and economy, while considering the effects of economic growth and energy intensity. The ordinary least squares, fully modified ordinary least squares regression analysis and Granger causality test were used to analyze the situation of 147 countries and four income groups from 1990 to 2015. The results showed that at the global level, economic growth and economic structure were respectively the most significant positive and negative factors affecting carbon emissions. There was the bidirectional granger causality relationship between global per capita carbon emissions and economic growth, and between global per capita carbon emissions and economic structure. At the income group level, consistent with the global results, economic growth and energy intensity increase promoted the increase in carbon emissions, whereas increasing renewable energy consumption helped to reduce carbon emissions. The influence direction and degree of the remaining three factors differed among different income groups. In addition, the causal relationships among the variables of the income groups except the low income group were relatively complicated. Finally, policy recommendations were offered to reduce per-capita carbon emission through adjusting economic, energy, social, and trade structure.