CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 163Vector-borne infectious diseasesClimate Change and Health ImpactsZoonotic diseases and public health

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 10 of the 10 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

To what extent has climate change contributed to the recent epidemiology of tick borne diseases?

Randolph, Sarah E.·2010·Veterinary Parasitology
DOI 10.1016/j.vetpar.2009.09.011
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

There is no doubt that all vector-borne diseases are very sensitive to climatic conditions. Many such diseases have shown marked increases in both distribution and incidence during the past few decades, just as human-induced climate change is thought to have exceeded random fluctuations. This coincidence has led to the general perception that climate change has driven disease emergence, but climate change is the inevitable backdrop for all recent events, without implying causality. Coincidence and causality can be disentangled using tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) as a test case, based on the excellent long-term data for this medically significant European disease system. Detailed analysis of climate records since 1970 has revealed abrupt temperature increases just prior to the dramatic upsurge in TBE incidence in many parts of central and eastern Europe. Furthermore, the seasonal patterns of this temperature change are such as might have favoured the transmission of TBE virus between co-feeding ticks. Nevertheless, the pattern of climate change is too uniform to explain the marked heterogeneity in the timing and degree of TBE upsurge, for example in different counties within each of the Baltic countries. Recent decreases as well as increases in TBE incidence must also be taken into account. Instead of a single cause, a network of interacting factors, acting synergistically but with differential force in space and time, would generate this epidemiological heterogeneity. From analysis of past and present events, it appears that human behavioural factors have played a more significant role than purely biological enzootic factors, although there is an explicit causal linkage from one to the other. This includes a range of abiotic and biotic environmental factors, together with human behaviour determined by socio-economic conditions. Many of the abrupt changes followed from the shift from planned to market economies with the fall of Soviet rule. Comparisons between eight countries have indeed revealed a remarkable correlation between poverty indicators and the relative degree of upsurge in TBE from 1993. Against this background of longer-term shifts in TBE incidence, sudden spikes in incidence appear to be due to exceptional weather conditions affecting people's behaviour, which have a differential impact depending on socio-economic factors. This new perspective may also help explain the epidemiology of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever around the eastern Mediterranean region, including the current exceptional epidemic in Turkey.

Overview

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.vetpar.2009.09.011

Cites

10 of 10 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

This paper’s full text isn’t openly available, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Citations

Cites

Show all 10 references

Cited by

Sorted by citations

See all 163

Related

Metadata

Authors
Randolph, S. E.
Affiliations
University of Oxford (GB)
Corresponding author
Randolph, Sarah E.
Venue
Veterinary Parasitology
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2010-02
Volume
167
Issue
2-4
Pages
92-94
ISSN
0304-4017 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.vetpar.2009.09.011
OpenAlex
W1976168424
Cited by
163
References
10
Citations by year
2026: 3 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 12 · 2014: 23 · 2013: 12 · 2012: 11
FWCI
6.25
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
Locations
  • Veterinary Parasitology (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
  • Wellcome Trust
  • Economic and Social Research Council (ES/E010806/1)
Topics
  • Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Parasitology › Vector-borne infectious diseases
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Zoonotic diseases and public health
Keywords
climate change, tick-borne diseases, tick-borne encephalitis, temperature change, human behavior, socioeconomic factors, poverty, post-Soviet transition, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, incidence trends
MeSH terms
Animals, Humans, Politics, Socioeconomic Factors, Ticks, Tick-Borne Diseases, Climate Change

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review