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Dangerous weapons or dangerous people? The temporal associations between gun violence and mental health
Open accessAbstract
Despite the public, political, and media narrative that mental health is at the root of gun violence, evidences are lacking to infer a causal link. This study examines the temporal associations between gun violence (i.e., threatening someone with a gun and gun carrying) and mental health (i.e., anxiety, depression, stress, PTSD, hostility, impulsivity, and borderline personality disorder) as well the cross-sectional associations with gun access and gun ownership in a group of emerging adults. Waves 6 (2015) and 8 (2017) data were used from a longitudinal study in Texas, US. Participants were 663 emerging adults (61.7% female) including 33.6% self-identified Hispanics, 26.0% white, 27.0% Black, and 13.4% other, with an average age of 22 years. Multivariate logistic regression indicated that, individuals who had gun access were 18.15 times and individuals with high hostility were 3.51 times more likely to have threatened someone with a gun, after controlling for demographic factors and prior mental health treatment. Individuals who had gun access were 4.74 times, individuals who reported gun ownership were 5.22 times, and individuals with high impulsivity were 1.91 times more likely to have carried a gun outside of their homes, after controlling for prior gun carrying, mental health treatment, and demographic factors. Counter to public beliefs, the majority of mental health symptoms examined were not related to gun violence. Instead, access to firearms was the primary culprit. The findings have important implications for gun control policy efforts.
Overview
CoChat Summary
TL;DR
This longitudinal study of 663 emerging adults found that most mental health symptoms did not predict later gun violence; instead, gun access and ownership were the strongest correlates of gun carrying and threatening someone with a gun. The authors conclude that limiting firearm access may reduce gun violence more than focusing on mental illness.
Key findings
- Gun access was associated with 18.15 times higher odds of having threatened someone with a gun (95% CI: 2.52, 130.48), and high hostility was associated with 3.51 times higher odds (95% CI: 1.27, 9.71), after controls.
- Gun carrying was associated with gun access (AOR = 4.74, 95% CI: 2.01, 11.16), gun ownership (AOR = 5.22, 95% CI: 2.31, 11.77), and higher impulsivity (AOR = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.25, 2.93).
- Most mental health symptoms examined—anxiety, depression, stress, PTSD, hostility, impulsivity, and borderline personality disorder—were not significantly related to gun violence; only hostility predicted threatening someone with a gun and only impulsivity predicted gun carrying.
- Past-year mental health treatment initially predicted threatening someone with a gun (AOR = 3.68, 95% CI: 1.17, 11.54) but became non-significant when other mental health variables were included (AOR = 3.28, 95% CI: .89, 12.12).
Methods
- Data came from Waves 6 (2015) and 8 (2017) of a longitudinal study in Texas/southern U.S.; the analytic sample was 663 emerging adults (61.7% female; 33.6% Hispanic, 26.0% white, 27.0% Black, 13.4% other; average age 22.05 years at Wave 8).
- Measures included gun carrying, threatening someone with a gun, gun access, and gun ownership, plus Wave 6 mental health symptoms (anxiety, depression, stress, PTSD, hostility, impulsivity, borderline personality disorder) and Wave 8 mental health treatment.
- Multivariate logistic regressions (Models 1–4) predicted gun carrying and threatening someone with a gun, controlling for demographics, school cluster dummies, prior gun carrying, mental health treatment, and other gun-related and mental health variables.
Limitations
- The authors state that the sample was emerging adults, so generalizability to other age groups must be done with caution; only 16 participants (1.5%) reported threatening someone with a gun, introducing potential bias; mental health measures were self-reported symptoms rather than diagnoses; the symptoms were not exhaustive and excluded more serious symptoms/disorders such as hallucinations and schizophrenia; and substance misuse was out of scope.
- The text makes evident that gun access and gun ownership were measured at the same wave as the gun violence outcomes, so temporal ordering cannot be established for those key predictors.
- The text also notes that all gun-related variables were single-item measures, so scale reliability could not be calculated.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
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Claims the paper makes
0 Valid · 0 Not valid · 8 Not checked · 23 Own results and interpretations
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“having received past-year mental health treatment at Wave 8 significantly predicted threatening someone with a gun at Wave 8 after controlling for demographic characteristics (Model 2; adjusted odds ratio = 3.68, 95% CI: 1.17, 11.54).”
§ Dangerous Weapons or Dangerous People? The Temporal Associations between Gun Violence and Mental Health > Results
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, when other mental health variables were included in the model, the association became non-significant (Model 3; adjusted odds ratio = 3.28, 95% CI: .89, 12.12).”
§ Dangerous Weapons or Dangerous People? The Temporal Associations between Gun Violence and Mental Health > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Prior gun carrying, having access to a gun, and owning a gun were all linked to future gun carrying.”
§ Dangerous Weapons or Dangerous People? The Temporal Associations between Gun Violence and Mental Health > Discussion
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“males were 3.04 times (95% CI: 1.06, 8.73) more likely to have threatened someone with a gun compared to their female counterparts.”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
“Notably, males were 3.04 times more likely to have threatened someone with a gun after controlling for other demographic factors.”
§ Dangerous Weapons or Dangerous People? The Temporal Associations between Gun Violence and Mental Health > Results
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“these who had access to a gun were 18.15 times (95% CI: 2.52, 130.48) more likely to have threatened someone with a gun.”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
“individuals who had access to guns, compared to those with no such access, were over 18 times more likely to have threatened someone with a gun, even after controlling for a number of demographic and mental health variables.”
§ Dangerous Weapons or Dangerous People? The Temporal Associations between Gun Violence and Mental Health > Results
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption not shown here.
- Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
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Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Lu, Y., & Temple, J. R.
- Affiliations
- The University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston (US)
- Corresponding author
- Lu, Yu
- Venue
- Preventive Medicine
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2019-04
- Volume
- 121
- Pages
- 1-6
- ISSN
- 0091-7435 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC6456300
- OpenAlex
- W2911337439
- Semantic Scholar
- f21ef3905ef4a7bb7e2ebe654ad5beb3d3b0f655
- Cited by
- 45
- References
- 45
- Citations by year
- 2025: 5 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 19 · 2019: 4
- FWCI
- 6.56
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Preventive Medicine (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute of Justice
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (2012-WG-BX-0005)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Health › Gun Ownership and Violence Research
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Suicide and Self-Harm Studies
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
- Keywords
- gun violence, mental health, firearm access, gun ownership, firearm carrying, emerging adults, hostility, impulsivity, anxiety, depression, stress, post-traumatic stress disorder, borderline personality disorder, gun policy, temporal association
- MeSH terms
- Gun Violence, Adult, Mental Disorders, Dangerous Behavior, Female, Firearms, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Mental Health, Psychiatric Status Rating Scales, Students, Texas, Logistic Models, Young Adult
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