A big data approach to the concordance of the toxicity of pharmaceuticals in animals and humans
Open accessAbstract
Although lack of efficacy is an important cause of late stage attrition in drug development the shortcomings in the translation of toxicities observed during the preclinical development to observations in clinical trials or post-approval is an ongoing topic of research. The concordance between preclinical and clinical safety observations has been analyzed only on relatively small data sets, mostly over short time periods of drug approvals. We therefore explored the feasibility of a big-data analysis on a set of 3,290 approved drugs and formulations for which 1,637,449 adverse events were reported for both humans animal species in regulatory submissions over a period of more than 70 years. The events reported in five species - rat, dog, mouse, rabbit, and cynomolgus monkey - were treated as diagnostic tests for human events and the diagnostic power was computed for each event/species pair using likelihood ratios. The animal-human translation of many key observations is confirmed as being predictive, such as QT prolongation and arrhythmias in dog. Our study confirmed the general predictivity of animal safety observations for humans, but also identified issues of such automated analyses which are on the one hand related to data curation and controlled vocabularies, on the other hand to methodological changes over the course of time.
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Many prior concordance studies have focused predominantly on approved drugs, introducing survivor's bias because these drugs' adverse events are less severe or clinically manageable.
“many prior studies have focused predominantly on approved drugs, introducing “survivor’s bias” as these drugs’ adverse events (AEs) are less severe or clinically manageable (Clark and Steger-Hartmann, 2018).”
From A large-scale concordance study of toxicity findings across preclinical species and humans for small molecules and biologics (2026) · cites this paper as Clark and Steger-Hartmann, 2018
The higher frequency of gastrointestinal disorders in dogs and monkeys is consistent with their known susceptibility compared to rodents.
“consistent with their known susceptibility comparing to rodents (Clark and Steger-Hartmann, 2018).”
From A large-scale concordance study of toxicity findings across preclinical species and humans for small molecules and biologics (2026) · cites this paper as Clark and Steger-Hartmann, 2018
The finding that most SOC-level LR+ values are low to moderate is consistent with previous work showing that SOC-level relationships are often highly statistically significant but likelihood ratios may not indicate strong predictivity.
“This finding is consistent with previous work showing that, although SOC-level relationships are often highly statistically significant, likelihood ratios may not indicate strong predictivity (Clark and Steger-Hartmann, 2018).”
From A large-scale concordance study of toxicity findings across preclinical species and humans for small molecules and biologics (2026) · cites this paper as Clark and Steger-Hartmann, 2018
In a previous study, the highest predictivity was observed for infections and infestations (LR+ = 9.6), while general disorders, investigations, and pregnancy-related conditions were among the lowest (LR+ < 3).
“In that study, the highest predictivity was observed for infections and infestations (LR+ = 9.6), while general disorders, investigations, and pregnancy-related conditions were among the lowest (LR+ < 3)”
From A large-scale concordance study of toxicity findings across preclinical species and humans for small molecules and biologics (2026) · cites this paper as Clark and Steger-Hartmann, 2018
The result that preclinical models have limited ability to predict the absence of human adverse events is consistent with previous reports.
“This result is consistent with previous reports (Bailey et al., 2014; Clark, 2015; Clark and Steger-Hartmann, 2018).”
From A large-scale concordance study of toxicity findings across preclinical species and humans for small molecules and biologics (2026) · cites this paper as Clark and Steger-Hartmann, 2018
The dog findings reflect their known sensitivity to hematologic and cardiovascular toxicities and underscore their utility in evaluating related safety risks in preclinical studies.
“reflecting their known sensitivity to hematologic and cardiovascular toxicities and underscoring their utility in evaluating related safety risks in preclinical studies (Clark and Steger-Hartmann, 2018; Koshman et al., 2024).”
From A large-scale concordance study of toxicity findings across preclinical species and humans for small molecules and biologics (2026) · cites this paper as Clark and Steger-Hartmann, 2018
The elevated percentages in rabbits reflect their role in evaluating local administration-related effects and associated systemic responses.
“reflecting their role in evaluating local administration-related effects and associated systemic responses (Clark and Steger-Hartmann, 2018).”
From A large-scale concordance study of toxicity findings across preclinical species and humans for small molecules and biologics (2026) · cites this paper as Clark and Steger-Hartmann, 2018
The pattern of LR+ results in this study broadly aligns with the pattern seen in the previous study.
“broadly aligning with the pattern seen in our results.”
From A large-scale concordance study of toxicity findings across preclinical species and humans for small molecules and biologics (2026) · cites this paper as Clark and Steger-Hartmann, 2018
The majority of adverse events showing low iLR-values under 3 is as repeatedly reported from previous concordance analyses.
“as repeatedly reported from previous concordance analyses (Clark and Steger-Hartmann, 2018; Giblin et al., 2021).”
From A large-scale concordance study of toxicity findings across preclinical species and humans for small molecules and biologics (2026) · cites this paper as Clark and Steger-Hartmann, 2018
Assignment of MedDRA terms, particularly for preclinical findings such as animal behaviors or nuanced histopathological changes, may involve subjective interpretation by original authors or database curators.
“the assignment of MedDRA terms, particularly for preclinical findings such as animal behaviors or nuanced histopathological changes, may involve subjective interpretation by original authors or database curators (Clark and Steger-Hartmann, 2018).”
From A large-scale concordance study of toxicity findings across preclinical species and humans for small molecules and biologics (2026) · cites this paper as Clark and Steger-Hartmann, 2018
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Concordance of the toxicity of pharmaceuticals in humans and in animals
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- Authors
- Clark, M., & Steger-Hartmann, T.
- Corresponding author
- Clark, Matthew
- ORCID
- Clark, Matthew
- Venue
- Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2018-07
- Volume
- 96
- Pages
- 94-105
- ISSN
- 0273-2300 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2802600358
- Cited by
- 162
- References
- 6
- Citations by year
- 2026: 17 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 18 · 2021: 14 · 2020: 30 · 2019: 21 · 2018: 6
- FWCI
- 25.98
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Innovative Medicines Initiative
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Veterinary › Small Animals › Animal testing and alternatives
- Life Sciences › Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutics › Toxicology › Pharmacovigilance and Adverse Drug Reactions
- Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Immunology › Immunotoxicology and immune responses
- Keywords
- adverse drug reactions, big data analytics, diagnostic power, likelihood ratios, QT prolongation, cardiac arrhythmias, Macaca fascicularis, rats, mice, rabbits, drug attrition, controlled vocabulary, data curation
- MeSH terms
- Big Data, Animals, Dogs, Pharmaceutical Preparations, Humans, Macaca fascicularis, Rabbits, Mice, Rats, Drug-Related Side Effects and Adverse Reactions
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