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Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong
Open accessAbstract
Background Health authorities worldwide, especially in the Asia Pacific region, are seeking effective public-health interventions in the continuing epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). We assessed the epidemiology of SARS in Hong Kong.Methods We included 1425 cases reported up to April 28, 2003. An integrated database was constructed from several sources containing information on epidemiological, demographic, and clinical variables. We estimated the key epidemiological distributions: infection to onset, onset to admission, admission to death, and admission to discharge. We measured associations between the estimated case fatality rate and patients' age and the time from onset to admission.Findings After the initial phase of exponential growth, the rate of confirmed cases fell to less than 20 per day by April 28. Public-health interventions included encouragement to report to hospital rapidly after the onset of clinical symptoms, contact tracing for confirmed and suspected cases, and quarantining, monitoring, and restricting the travel of contacts. The mean incubation period of the disease is estimated to be 6.4 days (95% CI 5.2-7.7). The mean time from onset of clinical symptoms to admission to hospital varied between 3 and 5 days, with longer times earlier in the epidemic. The estimated case fatality rate was 13.2% (9.8-16.8) for patients younger than 60 years and 43.3% (35.2-52.4) for patients aged 60 years or older assuming a parametric gamma distribution. A non-parametric method yielded estimates of 6.8% (4.0-9.6) and 55.0% (45.3-64.7), respectively. Case clusters have played an important part in the course of the epidemic.Interpretation Patients' age was strongly associated with outcome. The time between onset of symptoms and admission to hospital did not alter outcome, but shorter intervals will be important to the wider population by restricting the infectious period before patients are placed in quarantine.
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“However, there were substantial variations among studies, with no clear indication of what factors might drive such heterogeneity (appendix 1 pp 58, 65), except that the delay reduced over time because of improved population awareness.75”
From Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) mathematical models and disease parameters: a systematic review (2025) · cites this paper as [75]
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InfluentialSARS-CoV-2 Rapidly Adapts in Aged BALB/c Mice and Induces Typical Pneumonia
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ResultEstimating case fatality rates of COVID-19
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“3 The delay problem highlighted by Baud and colleagues produces falsely low estimates, whereas the underascertainment of mild cases produces falsely high estimates.”
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“We searched bibliographic databases for all published articles on epidemiology—defined as the study of the distribution and determinants of health-related states or events in specified populations, and the application of this study to control of health problems [11]—of the SARS epidemic in Hong Kong [12] and Toronto […”
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“The rapid spread of SARS [4], the perceived threat of bio-terrorism [15] and concerns over influenza pandemics [23] have all highlighted vulnerability to (re)emerging infections.”
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“…1, ffiffiffi n p F 1ðpÞ ffiffiffi n p ð21Þ where F 1(p) is the pth quantile of the standard normal distribution, n is the sample size, and t(q;b,c) is the qth quantile of the noncentral t-distribution with b degrees of freedom and non-centrality parameter c (El-Shaarawi and Piegorsch, 2001).”
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Leão, J. C., GUSMÃO, T. P. D. L., ZARZAR, A. M., Leão, J. C., FARIA, A. B. S. D., Silva, I. H. M., Gueiros, L. A., Robinson, N. A., Porter, S. R., & Carvalho, A. D. A. T. (2020) · Oral Diseases · doi:10.1111/odi.13447 · Cited by 44
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“This mode of transmission is consistent with the observation that most patients can be linked, either directly or indirectly, to persons with SARS or places where transmission is either suspected or documented (17,37).”
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Frieman, M. B., Basu, D., Matthews, K. L., Taylor, J. K., Jones, G. D., Pickles, R. J., Baric, R. S., & Engel, D. A. (2011) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0028479 · Cited by 42
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“While the investigation suggested that it is unlikely that most hospital pathogens are widely dispersed by an airborne route, local airborne transport is associated with environmental contamination (Beggs, 2003) and the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak (Leung et al., 2004).”
BackgroundInfluentialSARS: coping with the impact at a community hospital
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“In 2002-2003, over 8,000 people were affected by severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) caused by SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV), and about 10% of these patients died of rapidly progressing dyspnea and systemic failure [1] [2] [3] .”
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“containment was shown to have shortened as time progressed, reflecting the effects of contact tracing.(34) Such an association was not observed for COVID-19 possibly due to the early start of the infectious period.”
BackgroundSevere acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)
Cameron, P. A., & Rainer, T. H. (2003) · Emergency Medicine Australasia · doi:10.1046/j.1442-2026.2003.00494.x · Cited by 40
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“The case fatality rate is estimated to be 13% for patients younger than 60 years and 43% for those older than 60 years (4) .”
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“The sooner patients are hospitalised and treated, the less spread of infection there will be in the community (Donnelly et al. 2003).”
BackgroundLung Protection vs. Infection Resolution: Interleukin 10 Suspected of Double-Dealing in COVID-19
Lindner, H. A., Velásquez, S. Y., Thiel, M., & Kirschning, T. (2021) · Frontiers in Immunology · doi:10.3389/fimmu.2021.602130 · Cited by 39
“For SARS patients, this period varied between 3 and 5 days (117), but for COVID-19 the reported numbers span a very wide range of 2.”
BackgroundBasic methods for modeling the invasion and spread of contagious diseases
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“Other models also examined this important example of a modern emerging infectious disease, as reviewed elsewhere [6, 17]; the primary focus of ours, though, was on structuring the population into health care workers (HCWs) in a hospital setting and the general community served by that hospital.”
BackgroundChan, K. Y. K., Xu, M., Ching, J. C. Y., So, T., Lai, S.-T., Chu, C., Yam, L. Y.-C., Wong, A. T., Chung, P. H., Chan, V. S. F., et al. (2010) · Human Immunology · doi:10.1016/j.humimm.2010.03.006 · Cited by 37
Self-citationThe Role of Vaccination in the Control of SARS
Gjorgjieva, J., Smith, K. M., Chowell, G., Sánchez, F., Snyder, J., & Castillo‐Chávez, C. (2005) · Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering · doi:10.3934/mbe.2005.2.753 · Cited by 37
On the dynamics of SEIRS epidemic model with transport-related infection
Denphedtnong, A., Chinviriyasit, S., & Chinviriyasit, W. (2013) · Mathematical Biosciences · doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2013.07.001 · Cited by 37
TONEY, J. H., Navas, S., Weiss, S. R., & Koeller, A. (2004) · Journal of Medicinal Chemistry · doi:10.1021/jm034137m · Cited by 37
Coronavirus outbreak in cheetahs: Lessons for SARS
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Poon, T. C. W., Chan, K. C. A., Ng, P.-C., Chiu, R. W. K., Ang, I. L., Tong, Y., Ng, E. K. O., Cheng, F. W. T., Li, A. M., Hon, K. E., et al. (2004) · Clinical Chemistry · doi:10.1373/clinchem.2004.035352 · Cited by 37
“Early diagnosis is essential to control the spread of SARS by identifying and isolating infected patients (1, 2 ) . Diagnostic tests have been developed that detect either antibodies to or reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) products of the SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV).”
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Heterogeneous and Stochastic Agent-Based Models for Analyzing Infectious Diseases' Super Spreaders
Duan, W., Qiu, X., Cao, Z., Zheng, X., & Cui, K. (2013) · IEEE Intelligent Systems · doi:10.1109/mis.2013.29 · Cited by 36
Threshold dynamics of a non-autonomous SEIRS model with quarantine and isolation
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SARS incubation and quarantine times: when is an exposed individual known to be disease free?
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“[1] assumed a gamma distribution for the incubation times, implicitly therefore assuming the possibility of very long incubation periods.”
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“cost on resources [2]. The success of managing contacts and reducing drastically transmission rates have been directly seen in control of many diseases in the past such as smallpox [3], SARS epidemic [4], foot-and-mouth outbreak [5], and recent outbreak of Ebola [6]. Those who report more frequent social contact shoul…”
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“…208 1807 v2 = 190.62; d.f. = 12, P < 0.0001. a vaccine, the most effective way to control a new disease such as SARS is to break the chain of transmission from infected to healthy persons (Buckley, 2003; Donnelly et al., 2003; Eaton, 2003; Kontoyiannis et al., 2003; Mackay, 2003; Mandavilli, 2003).”
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“A typical incubation period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) is 2–10 days, while the average duration between first clinical symptoms and hospital admission is 3–5 days [2].”
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“Its outbreak started in 2003 however no case of SARS CoV is reported after 2004 (Donnelly et al., 2003).”
BackgroundCost–benefit of limited isolation and testing in COVID-19 mitigation
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Metadata
- Authors
- Donnelly, C. A., Ghani, A. C., Leung, G. M., Hedley, A. J., Fraser, C., Riley, S., Abu-Raddad, L. J., Ho, L.-M., Thach, T.-Q., Chau, P., Chan, K.-P., Lam, T.-H., Tse, L.-Y., Tsang, T., Liu, S.-H., Kong, J. H., Lau, E. M., Ferguson, N. M., & Anderson, R. M.
- Affiliations
- Imperial College London (GB)
- University of Hong Kong (HK)
- Department of Health (CN)
- Hospital Authority (HK)
- Chinese University of Hong Kong (HK)
- ORCID
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2003-05
- Volume
- 361
- Issue
- 9371
- Pages
- 1761-1766
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- PMC
- PMC7112380
- OpenAlex
- W1990049863
- Cited by
- 940
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 18 · 2022: 39 · 2021: 93 · 2020: 154 · 2019: 18 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 10 · 2016: 15 · 2015: 17 · 2014: 15 · 2013: 20 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 71.19
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Lancet (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- The HKU Scholars Hub (University of Hong Kong) (submittedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute
- Wellcome Trust
- Royal Society
- Medical Research Council
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Keywords
- SARS, Hong Kong SARS outbreak, incubation period, case fatality rate, age and mortality, contact tracing, quarantine, public health interventions, case clusters, infectious period
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Child, Child, Preschool, Disease Outbreaks, Female, Hong Kong, Humans, Infant, Male, Middle Aged, Quarantine, Incidence, Survival Rate, Likelihood Functions, Age Distribution, Disease Progression, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
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