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Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong
Open accessAbstract
Background Health authorities worldwide, especially in the Asia Pacific region, are seeking effective public-health interventions in the continuing epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). We assessed the epidemiology of SARS in Hong Kong.Methods We included 1425 cases reported up to April 28, 2003. An integrated database was constructed from several sources containing information on epidemiological, demographic, and clinical variables. We estimated the key epidemiological distributions: infection to onset, onset to admission, admission to death, and admission to discharge. We measured associations between the estimated case fatality rate and patients' age and the time from onset to admission.Findings After the initial phase of exponential growth, the rate of confirmed cases fell to less than 20 per day by April 28. Public-health interventions included encouragement to report to hospital rapidly after the onset of clinical symptoms, contact tracing for confirmed and suspected cases, and quarantining, monitoring, and restricting the travel of contacts. The mean incubation period of the disease is estimated to be 6.4 days (95% CI 5.2-7.7). The mean time from onset of clinical symptoms to admission to hospital varied between 3 and 5 days, with longer times earlier in the epidemic. The estimated case fatality rate was 13.2% (9.8-16.8) for patients younger than 60 years and 43.3% (35.2-52.4) for patients aged 60 years or older assuming a parametric gamma distribution. A non-parametric method yielded estimates of 6.8% (4.0-9.6) and 55.0% (45.3-64.7), respectively. Case clusters have played an important part in the course of the epidemic.Interpretation Patients' age was strongly associated with outcome. The time between onset of symptoms and admission to hospital did not alter outcome, but shorter intervals will be important to the wider population by restricting the infectious period before patients are placed in quarantine.
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“However, there were substantial variations among studies, with no clear indication of what factors might drive such heterogeneity (appendix 1 pp 58, 65), except that the delay reduced over time because of improved population awareness.75”
From Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) mathematical models and disease parameters: a systematic review (2025) · cites this paper as [75]
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Coronavirus as a possible cause of severe acute respiratory syndrome
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BackgroundInfluentialMurine Hepatitis Virus Strain 1 as a Model for Severe Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (Sars)
DeAlbuquerque, N., Baig, E., Xue-Zhong, M., Shalev, I., Phillips, M. J., Habal, M. V., Leibowitz, J. L., McGilvray, I. D., BUTANY, J. W., Fish, E. N., et al. (2006) · Advances in experimental medicine and biology · doi:10.1007/978-0-387-33012-9_66 · Cited by 10
“3 It has now been determined that a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV, is the etiologic agent in SARS. Based on phylogenetic sequence analysis, it best fits within group 2 coronaviruses, which include the mouse hepatitis viruses (MHV).”
BackgroundSARS, emerging infections, and bioterrorism preparedness
Weber, S. G., Bottei, E., Cook, R. D., & O’Connor, M. F. (2004) · The Lancet Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(04)01098-9 · Cited by 10
New Antiviral Drugs, Vaccines and Classic Public Health Interventions against SARS Coronavirus
OXFORD, J. S., Balasingam, S., Chan, C., Catchpole, A. P., & Lambkin‐Williams, R. (2005) · Antiviral chemistry & chemotherapy · doi:10.1177/095632020501600102 · Cited by 10
“An analysis of the spread of SARS in Hong Kong showed that the epidemic had a period of exponential growth followed by a time of stability leading to decay thereafter (Donnelly et al., 2003; Riley et al., 2003).”
MethodFlexible Bayesian estimation of incubation times
Gressani, O., Torneri, A., Hens, N., & Faes, C. (2024) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwae192 · Cited by 9
“ AGamma density from Donnelly et al. (2003) with a mean of 3.”
InfluentialTanaka, T., Yamaguchi, T., & Sakamoto, Y. (2020) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0241170 · Cited by 9
Lin, H.-H., Wang, S.-J., Liu, Y.-C., Lee, S. S., Hwang, C.-K., Chen, Y.-S., Wann, S.-R., & Shih, Y. (2004) · PubMed · Cited by 9
Estimating the case fatality rate using a constant cure-death hazard ratio
Chen, Z., Akazawa, K., & Nakamura, T. (2009) · Lifetime Data Analysis · doi:10.1007/s10985-009-9119-3 · Cited by 9
“For individual data, Donnelly et al. (2003) assumed gamma distributions for the individual time-delay distributions, admission-to-death, and admission-to-discharge.”
BackgroundA rate equation approach to model the denaturation or replication behavior of the SARS coronavirus
Liu, J. (2004) · Forschung im Ingenieurwesen · doi:10.1007/s10010-004-0130-2 · Cited by 9
“Named by the world health organization (WHO), severe acute respiratory syndrome-SARS is a newly emerging world-wide infectious disease [1] [2] [3] , which is also commonly called atypical pneumonia in China [1] [2] [3] [4] .”
BackgroundInfectious diseases detection by microarray: An overview of clinical relevant infections
Herrera-Rodríguez, S. E., Elizondo‐Quiroga, D., & Álvarez-Maya, I. (2013) · Journal of Biomedical Science and Engineering · doi:10.4236/jbise.2013.610125 · Cited by 9
“General symptoms are malaise, prostration increase in vascular permeability, and coagulation abnormalities [20].”
BackgroundCollecting Data To Assess SARS Interventions
Scott, R. D., Gregg, E. W., & Meltzer, M. I. (2004) · Emerging infectious diseases · doi:10.3201/eid1007.030749 · Cited by 9
Síndrome agudo respiratorio severo: un panorama mundial de la epidemia
Franco‐Paredes, C., Kuri-Morales, P. A., Alvarez-Lucas, C., Zavala, E. P., Nava-Frías, M., Betancourt-Cravioto, M., Santos, J. I., & TAPIA-CONYER, R. C. (2003) · Salud Pública de México · doi:10.1590/s0036-36342003000300011 · Cited by 9
Hindsight: A re-analysis of the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in Beijing
Liang, W., McLaws, M., Liu, M., Mi, J., & Chan, D. K. Y. (2007) · Public Health · doi:10.1016/j.puhe.2007.02.023 · Cited by 9
“14 The dramatic decline in contact history may be caused by: (1) failure by healthcare workers to elicit contact history;”
BackgroundEarly clinical predictors of severe acute respiratory syndrome in the emergency department
Wong, W. N., Sek, A. C. H., Lau, R. F. L., Li, K. M., Leung, J. K. S., Tse, M. L., Ng, A. H. W., & Stenstrom, R. J. (2004) · Canadian Journal of Emergency Medicine · doi:10.1017/s148180350000885x · Cited by 9
CONTROL OF EPIDEMICS BY QUARANTINE AND ISOLATION STRATEGIES IN HIGHLY MOBILE POPULATIONS
Yan, X., & Zou, Y. (2009) · Cited by 9
EXTENSIONS TO MASS-ACTION MIXING
Keeling, M. J. (2005) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-012088459-9/50008-x · Cited by 9
Peripheral muscle training in COPD: still much to learn
Morgan, M. D. (2005) · Thorax · doi:10.1136/thx.2004.035998 · Cited by 9
YIP, P. S. F., Hsieh, Y., Xu, Y., Lam, K. F., King, C., & Chang, H.-M. (2007) · Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology · doi:10.1086/516656 · Cited by 8
Coronavirus Infection Prevention by Wearing Masks
Vo, T. S., Vo, T. T. T. N., & Vo, T. T. B. C. (2020) · Eurasian Journal of Medicine · doi:10.5152/eurasianjmed.2020.20056 · Cited by 8
“For example, health care workers (HCWs) can initially be at risk and get infected from examining and treating patients with a respiratory infection [5] and then become indiscreet carriers to other patients, family members, and the community if they do not regularly wash their hands or take other infection-preventive m…”
BackgroundEmergency response to COVID‐19 epidemic: One Chinese blood centre's experience
Hu, P. F., Kang, J., Li, Y., Li, X., Li, M., Deng, M., Zhao, Y., Tian, H., Li, R., Zhang, J., et al. (2020) · Transfusion Medicine · doi:10.1111/tme.12719 · Cited by 8
Metadata
- Authors
- Donnelly, C. A., Ghani, A. C., Leung, G. M., Hedley, A. J., Fraser, C., Riley, S., Abu-Raddad, L. J., Ho, L.-M., Thach, T.-Q., Chau, P., Chan, K.-P., Lam, T.-H., Tse, L.-Y., Tsang, T., Liu, S.-H., Kong, J. H., Lau, E. M., Ferguson, N. M., & Anderson, R. M.
- Affiliations
- Imperial College London (GB)
- University of Hong Kong (HK)
- Department of Health (CN)
- Hospital Authority (HK)
- Chinese University of Hong Kong (HK)
- ORCID
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2003-05
- Volume
- 361
- Issue
- 9371
- Pages
- 1761-1766
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- PMC
- PMC7112380
- OpenAlex
- W1990049863
- Cited by
- 940
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 18 · 2022: 39 · 2021: 93 · 2020: 154 · 2019: 18 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 10 · 2016: 15 · 2015: 17 · 2014: 15 · 2013: 20 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 71.19
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Lancet (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- The HKU Scholars Hub (University of Hong Kong) (submittedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute
- Wellcome Trust
- Royal Society
- Medical Research Council
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Keywords
- SARS, Hong Kong SARS outbreak, incubation period, case fatality rate, age and mortality, contact tracing, quarantine, public health interventions, case clusters, infectious period
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Child, Child, Preschool, Disease Outbreaks, Female, Hong Kong, Humans, Infant, Male, Middle Aged, Quarantine, Incidence, Survival Rate, Likelihood Functions, Age Distribution, Disease Progression, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
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