The DOI matches its Crossref record; 13 of the 13 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Development of a risk score for atrial fibrillation (Framingham Heart Study): a community-based cohort study
Open accessAbstract
Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) contributes to substantial increases in morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to develop a risk prediction model to assess individuals’ absolute risk for incident AF; to offer clinicians a tool to communicate risk; and to provide researchers a framework to evaluate new risk markers. Methods We examined 4764 Framingham Heart Study individuals (8044 person-exams; mean age 60.9 years, 55% women) aged 45–95 years. Multivariable Cox regression related clinical variables to 10-year AF incidence (n=457). Secondary analyses incorporated routine echocardiographic data (person-exams=7156, 445 events) for reclassifying individuals’ AF risk. Findings Age, sex, significant murmur, heart failure, systolic blood pressure, hypertension treatment, body mass index, and electrocardiographic PR interval were associated with incident AF (p<0.05; clinical model C statistic=0.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76–0.80). Ten-year AF risk varied with age; >15% 10-year AF risk was observed in 1.0% of individuals <65 years versus 26.9% of participants ≥65 years. Predicted 10-year risk deciles for developing AF were similar to observed risks (calibration Chi-square statistic, 4.16, p=0.90). Additional incorporation of echocardiographic features minimally improved the C statistic from 0.78 (0.75, 0.80) to 0.79 (95% CI 0.77–0.82), p=0.005. Echocardiographic variables did not significantly improve net reclassification (p=0.18). We provide a point score for estimating AF risk with variables easily-measured in primary care. Interpretation The Framingham AF risk score may help risk stratify individuals in the community, and may provide a framework to evaluate new biological or genetic markers for AF risk prediction and help target individuals destined to develop AF for preventive measures.
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Self-citationMiyasaka, Y., Barnes, M. E., Gersh, B. J., Cha, S. S., Bailey, K. R., Abhayaratna, W. P., Seward, J. B., & Tsang, T. S. M. (2006) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/circulationaha.105.595140 · Cited by 2,564
Lifetime Risk for Development of Atrial Fibrillation: The Framingham Heart Study
Lloyd-Jones, D. M., Wang, T. J., Leip, E. P., Larson, M. G., Levy, D., Vasan, R. S., D’Agostino, R. B., Massaro, J. M., Beiser, A., Wolf, P. A., et al. (2004) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/01.cir.0000140263.20897.42 · Cited by 2,041
Self-citationKannel, W. B., Wolf, P. A., Benjamin, E. J., & Levy, D. (1998) · The American Journal of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/s0002-9149(98)00583-9 · Cited by 2,033
Self-citationWang, T. J., Larson, M. G., Levy, D., Vasan, R. S., Leip, E. P., Wolf, P. A., D’Agostino, R. B., Murabito, J. M., Kannel, W. B., & Benjamin, E. J. (2003) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/01.cir.0000072767.89944.6e · Cited by 1,970
Self-citationIncidence of and risk factors for atrial fibrillation in older adults
Psaty, B. M., Manolio, T. A., Kuller, L. H., Kronmal, R. A., Cushman, M., Fried, L. P., White, R., Furberg, C. D., & Rautaharju, P. M. (1997) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/01.cir.96.7.2455 · Cited by 1,462
Obesity and the risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation
Wang, T. J. (2004) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.292.20.2471 · Cited by 1,427
Self-citationEchocardiographic predictors of nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation. The Framingham Heart Study.
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Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics—2017 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association
Benjamin, E. J., Blaha, M. J., Chiuve, S. E., Cushman, M., Das, S. R., Deo, R., de Ferranti, S. D., Floyd, J., Fornage, M., Gillespie, C., et al. (2017) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/cir.0000000000000485 · Cited by 12,591
Self-citationHeart Disease and Stroke Statistics—2012 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association
Writing Group Members, Roger, V. L., Go, A. S., Lloyd-Jones, D. M., Benjamin, E. J., Berry, J. D., Borden, W. B., Bravata, D. M., Dai, S., Ford, E. S., et al. (2012) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/cir.0b013e31823ac046 · Cited by 7,333
Self-citationHeart disease and stroke statistics-2018 update: a report from the american heart association
Benjamin, E. J., Virani, S. S., Callaway, C. W., Chamberlain, A. M., Chang, A. R., Cheng, S., Chiuve, S. E., Cushman, M., Delling, F. N., Deo, R., et al. (2018) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/cir.0000000000000558 · Cited by 7,146
Self-citationHeart Disease and Stroke Statistics—2016 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association
Mozaffarian, D., Benjamin, E. J., Go, A. S., Arnett, D. K., Blaha, M. J., Cushman, M., Das, S. R., de Ferranti, S., Després, J.-P., Fullerton, H. J., et al. (2016) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/cir.0000000000000350 · Cited by 6,596
Self-citationHeart Disease and Stroke Statistics—2015 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association
Mozaffarian, D., Benjamin, E. J., Go, A. S., Arnett, D. K., Blaha, M. J., Cushman, M., de Ferranti, S., Després, J.-P., Fullerton, H. J., Howard, V. J., et al. (2015) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/cir.0000000000000152 · Cited by 5,797
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Metadata
- Authors
- Schnabel, R. B., Sullivan, L. M., Levy, D., Pencina, M. J., Massaro, J. M., D'Agostino, R. B., Newton-Cheh, C., Yamamoto, J. F., Magnani, J. W., Tadros, T. M., Kannel, W. B., Wang, T. J., Ellinor, P. T., Wolf, P. A., Vasan, R. S., & Benjamin, E. J.
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2009-02
- Volume
- 373
- Issue
- 9665
- Pages
- 739-745
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- OpenAlex
- W2167813229
- Cited by
- 1,041
- References
- 13
- FWCI
- 35.98
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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- Schnabel, R. B., Sullivan, L. M., Levy, D., Pencina, M. J., Massaro, J. M., D'Agostino, R. B., Newton-Cheh, C., Yamamoto, J. F., Magnani, J. W., Tadros, T. M., Kannel, W. B., Wang, T. J., Ellinor, P. T., Wolf, P. A., Vasan, R. S., & Benjamin, E. J. (2009). Development of a risk score for atrial fibrillation (Framingham Heart Study): a community-based cohort study. The Lancet. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(09)60443-8
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