The DOI matches its Crossref record; 74 of the 74 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Untreated short-term course of major depression: a meta-analysis of outcomes from studies using wait-list control groups
Abstract
Introduction While the short-term response rates to antidepressant medication and placebo are well established, very little is known about the short-term course of untreated depression. Knowledge of the course of untreated depression can serve as a benchmark for assessing the true benefits of active treatment.Method A meta-analysis was performed analyzing the outcomes of all psychotherapy studies that randomized adult outpatients with major depressive disorder to a wait-list control group.Results Nineteen studies involving 221 subjects were reviewed. The mean decrease in Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression scores over 2-20 weeks was 11.9%, while the mean decrease in Beck Depression Inventory scores was 15.7%. Using a subsample of studies that reported individual outcomes, we estimated that 15 of 76 subjects (19.7%) improved to a degree comparable to what would be considered a positive response in antidepressant trials.Conclusions In the short-term, depressive symptomatology can be expected to decrease by about 10-15% on average without treatment. As many as 20% of subjects who participate in a short-term antidepressant trial may experience a spontaneous remission.
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In the citing paper
“A meta-analysis showed that untreated depressive symptoms could decrease by 10%–15%, on average.73”
From Effects of bright light therapy for depression during pregnancy: a randomised, double-blind controlled trial (2020) · cites this paper as [73]
In the citing paper
“previous research has revealed spontaneous psychological symptom remission in wait-list participants in controlled trials (e.g., Posternak and Miller 2001).”
From Feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary efficacy of an internet-based CBT intervention for loneliness in older adults: A pilot RCT (2024) · cites this paper as Posternak and Miller 2001
In the citing paper
“For STPP of depression remission rates between 45% and 70% at post-therapy assessment were published [26], while remission rates in primary-care settings (comparable to TAU) ranged between 20% and about 50% (6 months) [27-29].”
From Efficacy of psychodynamic short-term psychotherapy for depressed breast cancer patients: Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial (2012) · cites this paper as [28]
In the citing paper
“Because such methodology was not employed, it is difficult to know whether the changes were due to depressive symptoms resolving over time [21].”
From Web-based Cognitive Behavior Therapy: Analysis of Site Usage and Changes in Depression and Anxiety Scores (2002) · cites this paper as [21]
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Fuhr, D. C., Sikander, S., Vanobberghen, F. M., et al. (2023) · Cambridge Prisms Global Mental Health · doi:10.1017/gmh.2023.26.pr8
Fuhr, D. C., Sikander, S., Vanobberghen, F. M., et al. (2023) · Cambridge Prisms Global Mental Health · doi:10.1017/gmh.2023.26.pr7
Fuhr, D. C., Sikander, S., Vanobberghen, F. M., et al. (2023) · Cambridge Prisms Global Mental Health · doi:10.1017/gmh.2023.26.pr5
Fuhr, D. C. (2023) · Cambridge Prisms Global Mental Health · doi:10.1017/gmh.2023.26.pr6
Fuhr, D. C., Sikander, S., Vanobberghen, F. M., et al. (2023) · Cambridge Prisms Global Mental Health · doi:10.1017/gmh.2023.26.pr4
Fuhr, D. C., Sikander, S., Vanobberghen, F. M., et al. (2023) · Cambridge Prisms Global Mental Health · doi:10.1017/gmh.2023.26.pr3
Fuhr, D. C., Sikander, S., Vanobberghen, F. M., et al. (2023) · Cambridge Prisms Global Mental Health · doi:10.1017/gmh.2023.26.pr2
Fuhr, D. C. (2023) · Cambridge Prisms Global Mental Health · doi:10.1017/gmh.2023.26.pr1
Predicting factors of recovery among persons with major depressive disorder
Vorapatratorn, N., Yunibhand, J., & Preechawong, S. (2017) · doi:10.58837/chula.the.2017.381
Test of Treatment in Psychiatric Practice
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Mechanisms of Subjective Tinnitus
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Jacobsen, C. F., Hjorthøj, C. R., Østergård, O. K., & Poulsen, S. (2026) · Trials · doi:10.1186/s13063-026-09901-2
“Two meta-analyses find that spon-taneous remission among waitlist patients with depression is relatively limited within shorter time frames (e.g., 12 weeks; [15, 16]).”
Niemeyer, H. (2012) · Univ. Duesseldorf: Duesseldorfer Dokumenten- und Publikationsserver
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Metadata
- Authors
- Posternak, M. A., & Miller, I.
- Affiliations
- Brown University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Posternak, Michael A.
- ORCID
- Miller, Ivan
- Venue
- Journal of Affective Disorders
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2001-10
- Volume
- 66
- Issue
- 2-3
- Pages
- 139-146
- ISSN
- 0165-0327 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2006252753
- Cited by
- 215
- References
- 65
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 10 · 2016: 15 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 10 · 2012: 19
- FWCI
- 0.40
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Affective Disorders (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pharmacology (medical) › Treatment of Major Depression
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Psychotherapy Techniques and Applications
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Anxiety, Depression, Psychometrics, Treatment, Cognitive Processes
- Keywords
- untreated depression, major depressive disorder, spontaneous regression, waitlist control, outpatients, placebo response
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Major Depressive Disorder, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Psychotherapy, Brief, Waiting Lists, Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic, Treatment Outcome, Benchmarking
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