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World war I may have allowed the emergence of “Spanish” influenza.
Abstract
The 1918 influenza pandemic caused 40 million deaths, and so dwarfed in mortality and morbidity the preceding pandemic of 1889 and the 1957 and 1968 pandemics. In retrospect, much can be learnt about the source, the possible subterranean spread of virus, and the genetic basis of virulence. The World Health Organization has urged every nation to prepare a pandemic plan for the first global outbreak of the 21st century. We present an appraisal of epidemiological and mortality evidence of early outbreaks of respiratory disease in France and the UK in the years 1915 to 1917. Certain of these earlier focal outbreaks--called epidemic bronchitis rather than influenza--occurred during the winter months when influenza was known to be in circulation, and presented with a particular heliotrope cyanosis that was so prominent in the clinical diagnosis in the world pandemic outbreak of 1918-1919 (the Great Pandemic). The outbreaks in army camps at Etaples in France and Aldershot in the UK in 1916-1917 caused very high mortality in 25-35 year olds. Increased deaths from bronchopneumonia and influenza were also recorded in England. We deduce that early focal outbreaks of influenza-like disease occurred in Europe and on the balance of probability the Great Pandemic was not initiated in Spain in 1918 but in another European country in the winter of 1916 or 1917. We suggest that the pandemic had its origins on the Western Front, and that World War I was a contributor.
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“Additional post-mortems of lung tissue suggest that at least 90% of samples showed evidence of bacterial infection (Oxford et al., 2002; Morens et al., 2008; Chien et al., 2009).”
From Secondary bacterial infections associated with influenza pandemics (2017) · cites this paper as Oxford et al., 2002
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Kobasa, D., Takada, A., Shinya, K., Hatta, M., Halfmann, P., Theriault, S., Suzuki, H., Nishimura, H., Mitamura, K., Sugaya, N., et al. (2004) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature02951 · Cited by 458
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“The Spanish influenza outbreak, which resulted in up to 40 million deaths, is considered to have originated in and been exacerbated by the conditions of the First World War [134,135], and”
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“What is the epidemiological evidence for the origin of the 1918 virus? Several locations of pandemic origin have been proposed, including Étaples, France (Oxford et al. 2002), China (Shortridge 1999), or Camp Funston/Haskell, Kansas (Barry 2004); but convincing data in support of particular points of origin are lackin…”
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The Dynamic Relationship between Temperature and Morbidity
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“It is possible that indoor crowding (the simultaneous behavioral response of many individuals) increases the likelihood that contagious illnesses are spread, and there exists empirical evidence on this point (Burström et al. 1999; Baker et al. 2000; Oxford et al. 2002; Souza et al. 2003; Adda 2016; Stoecker et al. 201…”
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Taubenberger, J. K., & Morens, D. M. (2006) · REVISTA BIOMÉDICA · doi:10.32776/revbiomed.v17i1.440 · Cited by 81
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Origins of the Spanish Influenza pandemic (1918-1920) and its relation to the First World War
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“Supporting the latter hypothesis is the small time interval of six months between the first and second wave for the new virus to spread worldwide, and the increase in the number of deaths from influenza-like illness in military camps and in small civilian communities during the winters of 1916 and 1917 [21].”
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“…seem to warrant legitimate concern due to two great pandemics of the last century: HIV/AIDS (which originated in bushmeat in Africa before emerging globally) [94] and Spanish influenza, which killed up to 2.5% of the human population at the close and immediately following World War I [84,89].”
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“It is sobering to consider that this is more deaths than occurred during the hostilities of World War I which had come to a halt only a few months before (Oxford et al., 2002).”
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“…decline of the native American population (Abdullah, 2014), the 1918 influenza pandemic (Spanish flu) that caused the loss of 20–100 million lives and changed the course of World War I (Oxford et al., 2002), and the COVID19 pandemic that had a significant impact on the world (Casale, 2020).”
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“Occasional outbreaks of severe and fatal bacterial pneumonia possibly related to influenza or other respiratory viruses, detected in the European war theater in 1916-1918, are difficult to interpret in the absence of pathological or other diagnostic material.(3,4) In spring 1918 there were widespread but distinct outb…”
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“4, 5 In the years since then, much research has been done to study respiratory illness among U.S. military recruits.”
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“By December 1957, every continent had been infected [10].”
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Leonor Jofré, M., Cecilia Perret, P., Jeannette Dabanch, P., Katia Abarca, V., Roberto Olivares, C., Vivian Luchsinger, F., Aguilera, X., Viviana Sotomayor, P., & Andrea Olea, N. (2005) · Revista chilena de infectología · doi:10.4067/s0716-10182005000100010 · Cited by 11
Sudden acute respiratory syndrome
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“…and the opportunity for rapid “passages” of infl uenza in young soldiers would have provided the opportunity for small mutational charges throughout the viral genome […] could have been important factors in the evolution of the virus into a particularly virulent form (Oxford et al. 2002 , 113).”
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“…of the 1918 epidemic have not been established (theories suggest either the battlefields of France or an American training base in Kansas, see Oxford et al., 2002; Barry, 2004; Humphries, 2005), in Canada, the disease is thought to have entered the country through a military training base in…”
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Bautista, H., Valeeva, G. F., Danilevich, V., & Zinovyeva, A. (2020) · International Journal of Criminology and Sociology · doi:10.6000/1929-4409.2020.09.118 · Cited by 9
The Interconnection between the Built Environment Ecology and Health
Koren, H. S., & Butler, C. D. (2006) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/1-4020-3893-3_9 · Cited by 9
“Other examples of links between intensive farming practices and periodic emergences of epidemic diseases that can infect humans include influenza (Oxford et al, 2002) and SARS (Webster, 2004).”
BackgroundThe end of the beginning: Vaccines for the next 25 years
OXFORD, J. S. (2008) · Vaccine · doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2008.07.106 · Cited by 8
Influenza — The Chameleon Virus
OXFORD, J. S., Eswarasaran, R., Mann, A., & Lambkin‐Williams, R. (2003) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-012194851-1/50029-9 · Cited by 8
Singh, R., Gehlot, A., & Buddhi, D. (2022) · doi:10.13052/rp-9788770227667 · Cited by 9
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for Military Populations During Pandemic Influenza.
Kılıç, S., & Gray, G. C. (2007) · PubMed · Cited by 7
Spatiotemporal patterns of pandemic influenza-related deaths in Allied naval forces during 1918
Shanks, G. D., Waller, M., & Smallman-Raynor, M. R. (2013) · Epidemiology and Infection · doi:10.1017/s0950268812003032 · Cited by 7
More about hypervirulent avian influenza: Is the world now better prepared?
Christophersen, O. A., & Haug, A. (2007) · Microbial Ecology in Health and Disease · doi:10.3402/mehd.v19i2.7666 · Cited by 9
Pan, H., Liu, J., Li, F., Wang, W., Huang, X., Li, H., Yang, X., & Chen, X. (2025) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2025.1662775 · Cited by 6
“First, rainfall encourages indoor gathering, especially in crowded or inadequately ventilated settings, thereby facilitating close-contact transmission of respiratory viruses (26).”
Anomalies of the 1919 influenza pandemic remain unexplained after 100 years
Shanks, G. D. (2019) · Internal Medicine Journal · doi:10.1111/imj.14344 · Cited by 6
Animal minds: The case for emotion, based on neuroscience
Turnbull, O. H., & Bär, A. (2020) · Neuropsychoanalysis · doi:10.1080/15294145.2020.1848611 · Cited by 7
“The most numerous cases were produced by the infamous encephalitis lethargica outbreak (also known as von Economo disease, Oxford et al., 2002), as part of the post-World War I epidemic of so-called “Spanish” flu.”
BackgroundThe Curious Case of the Spanish Flu
Roes, F. L. (2018) · Biological Theory · doi:10.1007/s13752-018-0307-9 · Cited by 6
The Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 in Russia. Questions a hundred years later
Morozova, O., Troshina, T. I., Morozovа, E. N., & Morozov, A. N. (2021) · Journal of microbiology epidemiology immunobiology · doi:10.36233/0372-9311-98 · Cited by 5
Binns, C. W., & Low, W. Y. (2018) · Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health · doi:10.1177/1010539518793959 · Cited by 5
The 1918 influenza pandemic in Montevideo: The southernmost capital city in the Americas
Cristina, J., Pollero, R., & Pellegrino, A. (2018) · Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses · doi:10.1111/irv.12619 · Cited by 4
Pandemics: the limits to growth and environmental health research
Butler, C. D. (2020) · Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2020.10.005 · Cited by 4
Why is the world so poorly prepared for a pandemic of hypervirulent avian influenza?
Christophersen, O. A., & Haug, A. (2006) · Microbial Ecology in Health and Disease · doi:10.3402/mehd.v18i3-4.7678 · Cited by 4
Evolutionary Medicine IV. Evolution and Emergence of Novel Pathogens
Scarpino, S. V. (2016) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-800049-6.00293-6 · Cited by 4
“Troop movement during WWI played a critical role in the emergence and spread of that virus (Oxford et al., 2002).”
BackgroundWhy is the world so poorly prepared for a pandemic of hypervirulent avian influenza?
Christophersen, O. A., & Haug, A. (2006) · Microbial Ecology in Health and Disease · doi:10.1080/08910600600866544 · Cited by 5
“1916 or 1917 (78), or perhaps even as early as in 1915.”
BackgroundInfluentialПроблема бактериальных осложнений при респираторных вирусных инфекциях
Egorov, A. (2018) · Microbiology Independent Research Journal (MIR Journal) · doi:10.18527/2500-2236-2018-5-1-1-11 · Cited by 3
Haalboom, F. (2014) · Studium · doi:10.18352/studium.9830 · Cited by 3
COVID-19 and the 1918 influenza pandemics: a concise overview and lessons from the past
Asghar, M., Din, M., Waris, A., Yasin, M. T., Zohra, T., & Zia, M. (2021) · Open Health · doi:10.1515/openhe-2021-0003 · Cited by 3
“Despite the name, little information about the consequences and course are available regarding a Spanish origin [19,20].”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Oxford, J., Sefton, A., Jackson, R., Innes, W., Daniels, R., & Johnson, N.
- Affiliations
- University of London (GB)
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- ORCID
- Venue
- The Lancet Infectious Diseases
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2002-02
- Volume
- 2
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 111-114
- ISSN
- 1473-3099 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2164014373
- Cited by
- 139
- References
- 25
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 4 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 3.02
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Lancet Infectious Diseases (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Respiratory viral infections research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Historical and modern epidemiology studies
- Keywords
- 1918 influenza pandemic, pandemic origins, World War I, military camps, Etaples, Aldershot, bronchopneumonia, influenza mortality, pandemic preparedness, viral virulence
- MeSH terms
- Disaster Planning, Disease Outbreaks, France, United Kingdom, Humans, Influenza, Human, Warfare, History, 20th Century
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